Will Kenosha Unrest Help Trump Win State?
His planned visit to Kenosha seeks to make urban unrest the key issue of campaign.
As polls continue to suggest that President Donald Trump probably can’t win reelection if he loses Wisconsin, he’s announced plans to visit Kenosha tomorrow. It’s all part of a law-and-order campaign, modeled after that of Richard Nixon in 1968, that may be Trump’s best chance of beating Democrat Joe Biden.
His campaign would have found backing for this approach in a May 2020 research paper by Princeton political scientist professor Omar Wasow, who analyzed polls in the 1960s and found that voters supported non-violent protests and that the Democratic vote in white counties that directly experienced, or were closely located to the scene of nonviolent protests, rose by 1.6 percent. By contrast, violent protests likely caused a 1.6 percent to 7.9 percent shift among whites toward Republicans, which helped elect Nixon over his Democratic opponent Hubert Humphrey, Wasow found.
The Black Lives Matter protests have largely been peaceful protests, but there has been violence at times, though it’s not always clear who committed it. In Milwaukee, for instance, former Police Chief Alfonso Morales had said any of the crime happening at night was not being committed by protesters.
The latest Marquette Law School poll, released on August 11, after weeks of Trump pushing the idea that protesters were engaging in violence and America’s cities were out of control, shows the issue probably had some impact on voters in Wisconsin.
The poll found that 48 percent of Wisconsin registered voters approve of the mass protests since the death of George Floyd, while 48 percent disapprove, which was a big drop from the June poll, when 61 percent approved and 36 percent disapproved.
Approval of the Black Lives Matter movement had also declined, from 59 percent having a favorable view and 27 percent unfavorable in June to 49 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable in August.
Those are big changes in approval for protesters, yet it didn’t move the needle on Trump’s approval rating, which was 45 percent in June and 44 percent in August. As for his handling of the protests, just 30 percent approved in June and 32 percent in August.
MU pollster Charles Franklin says the results suggest his strategy had little impact on Democrats or independents. “It may help tie his base more firmly to him,” Franklin says. “The biggest shift in views of the protests we saw in June to early August was among Republicans. So he could solidify opinion, but in a group he already is winning overwhelmingly.”
But not long after this poll came Kenosha, and the killing of Jacob Blake, followed by protests, mostly non-violent, along with burning of buildings and looting of buildings. A New York Times story last week was headlined “How Chaos in Kenosha Is Already Swaying Some Voters in Wisconsin” with this subhead: “As residents see fires and looting, some worry that local Democratic leaders are failing to keep control of the situation.”
But only a few people were quoted in the story, leaving it far from clear how many Kenosha voters have changed their view.
Trump won Kenosha County in 2026 by just 250 votes, so it is clearly a critical swing county in a critical swing state. Franklin’s polling has consistently showed Trump behind Biden in Wisconsin, but also showed he was consistently behind Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The president’s planned visit to Kenosha is already causing controversy, with Gov. Tony Evers and other Democrats asking him not to come. But controversy is exactly what Trump wants; to put all the attention on unrest in the cities, rather than the coronavirus pandemic, which a high percent of Americans believe he has handled poorly. The MU poll found just 40 percent in Wisconsin approve of his handling of the pandemic with 58 percent disapproving.
Biden issued a statement last week condemning violence, saying “Burning down communities is not protest, it’s needless violence — violence that endangers lives, violence that guts businesses, and shutters businesses that serve the community. That’s wrong. We need to end the violence — and peacefully come together to demand justice.”
But Trump and Republicans have repeatedly claimed he is hasn’t said enough, even as Biden has repeatedly made such statements, as a Washington Post story has documented. The strategy is to have Biden spend all his time on Trump’s favorite issue, rather than on the pandemic or the slumping economy. And a trip to Kenosha is the perfect way to stoke the issue.
More about the Kenosha Shooting
- Judge Denies New Arrest Warrant For Rittenhouse - Corri Hess - Feb 11th, 2021
- Rittenhouse Bond Is Modified - Henry Redman - Jan 26th, 2021
- Prosecutors Want Court to Ban Rittenhouse from Bars - Corri Hess - Jan 14th, 2021
- Kenosha DA Won’t Charge Cops in Blake Shooting - Corri Hess - Jan 5th, 2021
- Rittenhouse Will Stand Trial on All Charges - Megan Hart - Dec 3rd, 2020
- Rittenhouse Released on $2 Million Bail - Graham Kilmer - Nov 20th, 2020
- Man Charged With Buying Gun for Rittenhouse - Isiah Holmes - Nov 11th, 2020
- Rittenhouse Bond Set at $2 Million - Isiah Holmes - Nov 3rd, 2020
- U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin Calls on Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to Provide Answers After Facebook Failed to Promptly Remove Event Calling for Violence in Kenosha - U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin - Nov 2nd, 2020
- Rittenhouse Extradited to Wisconsin - Shawn Johnson - Oct 31st, 2020
Read more about Kenosha Shooting here
More about the Kenosha Unrest
- Wisconsin Man Indicted for Injuring Police Officer During Kenosha Riots - U.S. Department of Justice - Jan 27th, 2021
- Prosecutors Want Court to Ban Rittenhouse from Bars - Corri Hess - Jan 14th, 2021
- Kenosha DA Won’t Charge Cops in Blake Shooting - Corri Hess - Jan 5th, 2021
- Common Council Unanimously Approved Resolution Declaring an Emergency - Kenosha Common Council - Jan 4th, 2021
- Wisconsin National Guard Mobilized to Assist Civil Authorities and Preserve Public Safety in Kenosha - Gov. Tony Evers - Jan 4th, 2021
- Police Association Calls BLM Protesters ‘Terrorists’ - Henry Redman and Isiah Holmes - Dec 14th, 2020
- Aggressive Police Escalate Violence at Protests? - Clara Neupert - Dec 10th, 2020
- U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin Calls on Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to Provide Answers After Facebook Failed to Promptly Remove Event Calling for Violence in Kenosha - U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin - Nov 2nd, 2020
- Lawsuit Targets Rittenhouse, Militia, Facebook - Madeline Fox - Sep 23rd, 2020
- Gov. Evers, WEDC Announce $4 million Available in Loans to Aid Kenosha Businesses - Gov. Tony Evers - Sep 23rd, 2020
Read more about Kenosha Unrest here
More about the Shooting of Jacob Blake
- Community Leaders Lament Jacob Blake Decision - PrincessSafiya Byers - Jan 9th, 2021
- Rep. Robyn Vining Responds to Kenosha DA Decision - State Rep. Robyn Vining - Jan 7th, 2021
- Body Cameras Would Have Helped Jacob Blake Shooting Investigation - Corri Hess - Jan 7th, 2021
- Joint Statement on Charging Decision in Jacob Blake Case - Milwaukee Common Council - Jan 6th, 2021
- Barnes Rips Kenosha DA On Blake Shooting - Melanie Conklin - Jan 6th, 2021
- Rep. Stubbs’ Statement on Decision to not Charge Officer Sheskey in Shooting of Jacob Blake - State Rep. Shelia Stubbs - Jan 6th, 2021
- Statement from the Milwaukee Bucks Organization - Milwaukee Bucks - Jan 5th, 2021
- Senator Agard Releases Statement on the Decision to Not Charge Officer Involved in Shooting Jacob Blake - State Sen. Melissa Agard - Jan 5th, 2021
- Rep Hintz: Statement on Jacob Blake Shooting Charging Decision by Kenosha District Attorney - State Rep. Gordon Hintz - Jan 5th, 2021
- Statement from Kenosha County Judicial Candidate Angela Cunningham on Charging Decision of the Jacob Blake Shooting - Angela Cunningham - Jan 5th, 2021
Read more about Shooting of Jacob Blake here
Really people? Are you going to let Trump continue to drive division and unrest in our communities just so he can call himself a ‘law and order’ president–when he is the one inciting the violence?! Don’t give him the time of day and feed his ego.
We do not want him here!!!