Mayoral Poll Shows Strong Donovan Showing

A new poll on the Milwaukee mayoral race shows strong support for former alderman Robert Donovan, but still places Acting Mayor Cavalier Johnson in the lead.

“It appears that voters are willing to advance two polar political opposites to the April 5th general election,” said radio host and political consultant Sherwin Hughes of the results. His nonprofit group, Leaders for a Better Community, commissioned the poll.

The poll was conducted by the Remmington Research Group, a national pollster often associated with GOP efforts. Leaders for a Better Community is a 501(c)(4) independent expenditure committee that has often been involved with promoting choice and charter schools. It was founded by Hughes in 2015. The radio host describes the group as a “grassroots nonprofit organization dedicated to the improvement in quality of life for all Milwaukee residents.”

Johnson is favored by 41% of the 673 respondents, followed by Donovan (24%), Senator Lena Taylor (10%), Sheriff Earnell Lucas (6%), Alderwoman Marina Dimitrijevic (5%), Ieshuh Griffin (1%) and Michael Sampson (1%). The poll found 12% of respondents are undecided, a figure that is less than half the total reported in two earlier polls.

The new poll, conducted Feb. 2 and 3, is purportedly “weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Primary Election.” But a view of respondents by aldermanic district compared to spring 2020 turnout shows that the poll incorrectly weighted the districts. It also reported results by district, but relied on a small sample size (an average of 45 responses per district with a margin of error of 4%).

The poll also appears to have found more conservatives than might be expected.

A total of 44% of respondents identified as “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative.” And 43% of respondents said they are more likely to vote for a candidate that supports school choice. The poll found that 71% of respondents agree that “parents should have the right to choose between public, charter, and voucher schools.”

On the district weighting, 11% of poll respondents came from District 5 (the Far West Side), the highest of any district. But in both the 2020 primary and general elections, the district never had more than 8.8% of the city’s votes. Conversely, District 3 (the East Side and Riverwest) is given the eighth-highest weighting in the poll at 7%, but it actually leads the city (12.4% of all votes in spring 2020 general).

The poll found Donovan winning three districts (5, 13 and 14) and coming in fourth (with 7%, behind Johnson, Dimitrijevic and Taylor) in the underweighted, turnout-leading District 3.

Another curiosity of the poll is the results from District 14 (Bay View). It’s underweighted by the poll and is actually the second-highest turnout district. But if the poll is to be believed, its council representative shouldn’t get too comfortable. Donovan is favored by 39% of respondents, followed by Johnson (27%) and Dimitrijevic (16%). Dimitrijevic has represented the entire district since 2020 and a portion of the district on the county board since 2004, winning all of her recent elections handily. Donovan, in his 2016 mayoral bid, secured only 35% of the district’s votes.

But the sample size of the district residents polled illustrates what could have generated that result. Respondents from District 14, which has a number of Milwaukee Public Schools‘ best schools, said they backed school choice (71%) and the leading response was that they would more likely back a candidate that did as well (45%). Dimitrijevic is an avid supporter of public schools. Johnson is opposed to school choice. Taylor, Donovan and Lucas support school choice.

“It’s hard to take any poll seriously that says 44% of Milwaukee voters are conservative and 31% are progressive in a city that voted for Joe Biden 78-19,” said Dimitrijevic campaign spokesperson Josh Henderson. “Our focus is on telling voters about our bold vision for Milwaukee and if we do that we’re confident we’ll do well in the only poll that matters, the one on election day.”

It’s the third publicly released poll on the seven-candidate field. A primary election to narrow the field will take place Feb. 15 and early voting is underway.

An independent poll conducted in mid-January and released in full found Donovan in second behind Johnson, but with limited upside (undecided voters) for the former alderman. An early January poll from Johnson’s campaign, partially released, found Johnson leading followed by Taylor.

Sales Tax Wording

Putting aside concerns with who the respondents are, the poll highlights the need for careful wording on any future sales tax referendum.

The Remington poll asked “do you support or oppose an increased sales tax?” and found only 22% of respondents support the idea (52% oppose, 25% not sure).

But the earlier poll, similar to a successful 2008 advisory referendum, included what the money would be spent on and found more support.

The January poll asked “would you support or oppose a new, one percent Milwaukee sales tax to be used for public safety, parks and property tax relief?” and found 54% of respondents favored the idea (27% no, 19% not sure).

A copy of the entire poll result set is available on Urban Milwaukee.