New Mayoral Poll Reorders Field

Clockwise from top left – Marina Dimitrijevic, Robert Donovan, Ieshuh Griffin, Cavalier Johnson, Milwaukee City Hall, Lena Taylor, Michael Sampson and Earnell Lucas. Images from candidates or Urban Milwaukee file photos.

A new, third-party poll on the Milwaukee mayoral race shows a different candidate pair getting through the primary than an earlier poll released by Acting Mayor Cavalier Johnson‘s campaign.

Both polls make one thing clear: the race is too close to call.

Johnson is still shown in the lead (25%), but second place is held by former alderman Robert Donovan (18%). Senator Lena Taylor, who came in second in the earlier poll, was backed by 13% of respondents. Alderwoman Marina Dimitrijevic (7%) leads the rest of the field, followed by Sheriff Earnell Lucas (5%) and a tie between Michael Sampson and Ieshuh Griffin (1%).

But if “not sure” was a name on the ballot, they might win. The option was selected by 30% of respondents. That’s up from 25% in Johnson’s poll.

The top two vote-getters will advance from the Feb. 15 primary to the general election on April 5.

The new poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for Milwaukee-based Milwaukee Works, a 501(c)(4) that periodically polls on local policy issues and candidates.

The polls respondents are 1,135 likely primary voters, more than double the number polled in Johnson’s poll. The responses were collected on Jan. 19 and 20. Unlike Johnson’s poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, the entire results of the poll were released to Urban Milwaukee.

“I think the poll shows a three-tier race, Mayor Johnson in a tier by himself followed by Taylor/Donovan who are vying for number two, and then the rest,” said attorney Daniel Morgan Adams, who leads the group that commissioned the poll. “In 2004, the large field of candidates leveled off at the end with two top-tier contenders – Tom Barrett and Marvin Pratt. That doesn’t seem to be the case this election. With only 24 days or so until the election, it will be hard for Sheriff Lucas and Alder Dimitrejvic to build the momentum they’ll need to change this dynamic.”

The poll also asked for the respondent’s second choice, and the order of the list is substantially different. Johnson still leads (13%), but is trailed by Lucas (9%), Dimitrijevic (7%), Taylor (6%), a tie between Donovan and Sampson (3%) and Griffin (1%). Fifty-nine percent of respondents said “not sure/don’t have a second choice.”

Donovan (2016) and Taylor (2020) previously ran for mayor and lost to Barrett. As a result, the poll shows voters have a better idea who they are than the rest of the field. But that might not be a good thing.

Both Donovan and Taylor have negative favorability ratings, with Donovan (25% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 38% not sure) having a bigger gap than Taylor (32/36/32).

Johnson has the highest positive favorability rating (42% favorable, 15% unfavorable, 43% unsure) and despite not running in a city or countywide race, respondents indicate they have the third-best idea of who he is.

The biggest challenge, based on the responses, facing the other candidates is educating the field on who they are and what they stand for. Dimitrijevic (17/28/55), Lucas (25/18/57), Griffin (4/19/77) and Sampson (6/16/78) each have a “not sure” score indicative of the fact that the majority of voters don’t have a strong opinion on them.

The poll results also correlated candidate choices with 2020 presidential votes. Donovan, who has long positioned himself as a strong backer of rank-and-file police officers, is backed by 58% of people who said they voted for Donald Trump. No other candidate has above 8% of that group (with 24% of Trump voters undecided as to who they support for mayor). The former alderman also leads amongst respondents who said they did not vote or voted for a third-party in the 2020 election: 43% of those respondents chose Donovan.

Johnson is the preferred choice of Joe Biden voters (30%) followed by Taylor (16%). Donovan got only 7% of those responses.

What do respondents think should be the top priority for the next mayor? Crime and public safety (50%) was the top choice. It eclipsed schools and education (16%), jobs and the economy (15%), lowering property taxes (6%), road and infrastructure repair (5%), something else/not sure (5%) and clean water (3%).

The respondents to the poll were indexed by age, education, race and ethnicity, gender and presidential candidate choices, to be representative of the city as a whole. The poll was conducted by phone or text message.

Sales Tax, Masks and School Closings

Milwaukee Works’ poll also asked about respondents opinions on a mask mandate, Milwaukee Public Schools‘ closures and proposed 1% sales tax for public safety, parks and property tax relief.

The majority of respondents backed a sales tax (54%), while only 27% opposed one (19% undecided).

A total of 69% of respondents backed a mask mandate in public places, 26% opposed and 5% were undecided.

Respondents are more divided on school closures. The leading choice (41%) was for keeping schools in person unless a pre-determined number of students or staff test positive, followed by always in person (28%), or always virtual until “the risk from the virus is eliminated (27%) and not sure (7%).

The full results of the poll are available on Urban Milwaukee. The margin of error on the poll is 2.9%.