New Marquette Law School Poll finds no change in impeachment views following end of public testimony

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds that support for impeachment has not changed following the conclusion of public testimony before the Intelligence Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

In the new results, 40 percent think that President Donald Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while 52 percent do not think so and 6 percent say they do not know. One percent volunteered that they thought Trump should be impeached but not removed from office. In November, 40 percent favored impeachment and removal from office, while 53 percent were opposed and 6 percent said they didn’t know. The November poll was conducted during the first week of public testimony before the Intelligence Committee but before the second week of testimony.

In October, before public hearings began, 44 percent favored impeachment and removal from office, while 51 percent were opposed and 4 percent said they didn’t know.

The new survey was conducted Dec. 3-8, 2019, after the conclusion of public testimony before the Intelligence Committee in the congressional impeachment hearings. The House Judiciary Committee heard testimony from four constitutional law professors on Dec. 4, during the field period for the survey.

The trend in responses to this question is shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Impeach and remove Trump from office by survey dates

	Impeach & remove	Don’t think so	Don’t know
10/13-17/19	44	51	4
11/13-17/19	40	53	6
12/3-8/19	40	52	6

Opinions about Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine also changed very little following public testimony.

The new poll finds 52 percent saying they believe Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Trump’s political rivals while 29 percent believe Trump did not do this. Eighteen percent say they don’t know. In November, the percentages were the same for each category: 52 percent said he asked for an investigation, while 29 percent said they did not think he did so and 18 percent said they didn’t know.

In the December poll, 44 percent say they believe Trump withheld military aid to pressure the Ukrainian president to investigate Trump’s political rivals, while 36 percent do not believe Trump did this and 19 percent say they don’t know. In November, 41 percent said they believed Trump withheld aid, 38 percent did not believe he did, and 21 percent said they did not know.

Forty-two percent say that Trump did something seriously wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, 9 percent say he did something wrong but not seriously so, and 37 percent say Trump did nothing wrong. Eleven percent say they don’t know. In November, 42 percent said he did something seriously wrong, 9 percent said it was wrong but not serious, and 38 percent said he did nothing wrong.

The poll sample included 800 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

Democratic presidential primary preference items were asked of those who said they will vote in the Democratic primary in April. That sample size is 358, with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points.

Views of impeachment by partisanship and attention to hearings

There are large partisan differences in views of impeachment, with Democrats much more supportive and Republicans much more opposed, and a plurality of independents opposed. These partisan divisions have changed only modestly from October to December.

Table 2: Impeach and remove Trump from office by party identification, December

	Impeach & remove	Don’t think so	Don’t know
Republican	4	94	3
Lean Republican	6	89	4
Independent	34	47	13
Lean Democrat	81	14	4
Democrat	80	11	7

Table 3: Impeach and remove Trump from office by party identification, November

	Impeach & remove	Don’t think so	Don’t know
Republican	4	94	2
Lean Republican	7	92	1
Independent	36	47	15
Lean Democrat	73	20	8
Democrat	81	11	7

Table 4: Impeach and remove Trump from office by party identification, October

	Impeach & remove	Don’t think so	Don’t know
Republican	6	92	2
Lean Republican	9	88	3
Independent	33	55	10
Lean Democrat	78	16	6
Democrat	88	8	3

Partisans are reacting differently to the evidence and testimony, with Democrats much more likely to say that Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate his political rivals than are Republicans. Independents are more than twice as likely as partisans to say that they do not know if Trump asked for an investigation: 39 percent say they don’t know, while 39 percent say he did ask and 20 percent say he did not ask.

Table 5: Did Trump ask for investigation of political rivals by party identification

	Yes, did ask	No, did not ask	Don’t know
Republican	19	59	20
Lean Republican	30	50	18
Independent	39	20	39
Lean Democrat	82	6	12
Democrat	88	4	9

Republicans are less likely to think that Trump withheld aid to pressure Ukraine for an investigation, with two-thirds of Republicans saying that Trump did not withhold aid, whereas about eight in ten Democrats say that he did so. Almost half of independents, 48 percent, say they don’t know if Trump withheld aid, with 33 percent saying he did and 18 percent saying he did not.

Table 6: Did Trump withhold aid to pressure Ukraine for investigation of political rivals by party identification

	Yes, held up aid	No, did not hold up aid	Don’t know
Republican	12	69	18
Lean Republican	9	69	21
Independent	33	18	48
Lean Democrat	77	5	17
Democrat	83	7	9

Thirty-one percent of all registered voters say they are following the news and testimony in the impeachment hearings very closely, with another 39 percent saying they are following fairly closely. Eighteen percent are not following too closely and 11 percent are following not at all closely.

There are no statistically significant differences in attention to the hearings between Republicans and Democrats, although independents are more likely to say they are not following closely at all.

Table 7: Attention to hearings by party identification

	Very closely	Fairly closely	Not too closely	Not at all closely
Republican	31	43	13	13
Lean Republican	30	38	24	8
Independent	14	38	20	27
Lean Democrat	30	36	26	6
Democrat	38	40	16	5

Those who are following the hearings most closely are more likely to have an opinion about the evidence than are those not paying close attention. Of those paying very close attention, 58 percent say that Trump asked for an investigation, 33 percent say he did not ask and only 9 percent say they don’t know. By contrast, among those not following the hearings at all closely, 21 percent say Trump asked, 24 percent say he did not ask, and 55 percent say they don’t know.

Table 8: Did Trump ask for investigation of political rivals by attention to hearings

	Yes, did ask	No, did not ask	Don’t know
Very closely	58	33	9
Fairly closely	57	32	9
Not too closely	49	22	28
Not at all closely	21	24	55

A similar pattern holds with attention and opinion on whether Trump withheld aid to pressure Ukraine for an investigation. Both the percentage saying he did this and the percentage saying he did not are higher among the most attentive, and both such percentages are lower among the least attentive. Among the most attentive, only 5 percent say they don’t know while 58 percent of the least attentive say they don’t know.

Table 9: Did Trump withhold aid to pressure Ukraine for investigation of political rivals by attention to hearings

	Yes, held up aid	No, did not hold up aid	Don’t know
Very closely	54	41	5
Fairly closely	46	41	11
Not too closely	36	29	34
Not at all closely	21	19	58

General election matchups

General election matchups between Trump and five Democratic candidates all indicate very close races, slightly closer than in the November poll.

A summary of the general election results for December is shown in Table 10. For comparison, the November results are shown in Table 11 and the October results in Table 12.

Table 10: December General Election Matchups

Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct
Biden	47	Sanders	45	Warren	44	Buttigieg	43	Booker	43
Trump	46	Trump	47	Trump	45	Trump	44	Trump	44
Neither	3	Neither	4	Neither	5	Neither	4	Neither	5
Don’t know	3	Don’t know	3	Don’t know	4	Don’t know	7	Don’t know	7

Table 11: November General Election Matchups

Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct
Biden	44	Sanders	45	Warren	43	Buttigieg	39	Booker	45
Trump	47	Trump	48	Trump	48	Trump	47	Trump	44
Neither	5	Neither	5	Neither	4	Neither	6	Neither	4
Don’t know	2	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	4	Don’t know	7	Don’t know	5

Table 12: October General Election Matchups

Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct
Biden	50	Sanders	48	Warren	47	Buttigieg	43
Trump	44	Trump	46	Trump	46	Trump	45
Neither	3	Neither	4	Neither	4	Neither	5
Don’t know	3	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	7

Democratic Presidential Primary Candidates

Among those who say they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary in April, Joe Biden receives the most support. Biden is the first choice of 23 percent, followed by Bernie Sanders at 19 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 16 percent and Pete Buttigieg at 15 percent. Corey Booker is the first choice of 4 percent. Recently announced candidate Michael Bloomberg has the support of 3 percent, as does Andrew Yang and Amy Klobuchar.

The complete results for the Democratic primary are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: First and second choice in Democratic primary (among Democratic primary voters).

Response	First Choice	Second Choice
Joe Biden	23	15
Bernie Sanders	19	18
Elizabeth Warren	16	20
Pete Buttigieg	15	11
Cory Booker	4	8
Andrew Yang	3	1
Michael Bloomberg	3	8
Amy Klobuchar	3	6
Tulsi Gabbard	1	0
Tom Steyer	0	0
Michael Bennet	0	0
Marianne Williamson	0	1
John Delaney	0	0
Julián Castro	0	1
Deval Patrick	0	0
Someone else (VOL)	1	2
Would not vote (VOL)	1	0
Don’t know	11	8

Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters, 65 percent, say they might change their minds about their primary choice, while 34 percent say their mind is made up.

Among the Democratic primary sample, favorability of candidates is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Favorability ratings of six candidates among Democratic primary sample

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Bernie Sanders	68	23	4	4
Joe Biden	68	16	11	4
Elizabeth Warren	59	17	19	4
Pete Buttigieg	47	10	39	4
Cory Booker	41	12	39	7
Michael Bloomberg	23	32	41	4

Trump Job Approval

Forty-seven percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 50 percent disapproving. That is little changed from October when 47 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved. The approval-disapproval ratio of 47-50 matches Trump’s best rating in the Marquette Law School Poll since taking office, that from Oct. 24-28, 2018.

Trump’s job approval during 2019 is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Trump job approval during 2019

	Approve	Disapprove
1/16-20/19	44	52
4/3-7/19	46	52
8/25-29/19	45	53
10/13-17/19	46	51
11/13-17/19	47	51
12/3-8/19	47	50

Trump’s job approval is high among Republicans, is low among Democrats, and is split among independents as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Trump job approval by party identification

	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Republican	88	10	1
Lean Republican	89	10	1
Independent	41	48	7
Lean Democrat	6	92	2
Democrat	7	91	1

Fifty-three percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 45 percent disapprove. In November, 55 percent approved and 43 percent disapproved.

Forty-three percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of foreign policy, while 54 percent disapprove. In the previous poll, 44 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved.

Twenty-five percent say that Trump has changed the Republican party for the better, while 44 percent say he has changed it for the worse and 26 percent say he hasn’t changed it much either way. An additional 5 percent say they don’t know.

Views of how Trump has changed the Republican party vary by partisanship, with Republican identifiers more positive about the effect Trump has had on the party, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Has Trump changed GOP for better or worse, by party identification

	Changed for the better	Changed for the worse	Hasn’t changed much either way	Don’t know
Republican	55	10	31	4
Lean Republican	43	11	42	4
Independent	13	28	47	13
Lean Democrat	1	79	16	4
Democrat	2	86	10	2

Economic outlook and issues

Wisconsin registered voters hold a net positive view of the performance of the economy over the past 12 months, with 44 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 21 percent saying it has worsened, and 34 percent saying it has stayed the same. The trend in economic evaluations of the past year is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Economic evaluation of past year

	Gotten better	Gotten worse	Stayed the same
1/16-20/19	42	20	34
4/3-7/19	42	19	37
8/25-29/19	37	25	34
10/13-17/19	41	20	36
11/13-17/19	42	18	37
12/3-8/19	44	21	34

Looking ahead to the next year, 32 percent say the economy will improve, while 25 percent think it will get worse and 37 percent say the economy will remain the same. The trend in economic outlook during 2019 is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Economic outlook for next year

	Get better	Get worse	Stay the same
1/16-20/19	29	34	30
4/3-7/19	34	27	34
8/25-29/19	26	37	33
10/13-17/19	25	30	39
11/13-17/19	35	24	37
12/3-8/19	32	25	37

Evaluation of state elected officials

Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 50 percent, with disapproval at 38 percent. Eleven percent say they don’t have an opinion. In November, 47 percent approved, while 42 percent disapproved. The trend in job approval of the governor is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Evers’s job approval in 2019

	Approve	Disapprove
1/16-20/19	39	22
4/3-7/19	47	37
8/25-29/19	54	34
10/13-17/19	52	34
11/13-17/19	47	42
12/3-8/19	50	38

Table 21 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

Table 21: Favorability ratings of governor and senators

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Tony Evers	45	37	12	5
Tammy Baldwin	42	39	14	3
Ron Johnson	36	34	26	4

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Dec. 3-8, 2019. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points for the full sample.

The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of those who said that they will vote in the Democratic primary. That sample size is 358 with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic, and 39 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. It has not been verified for its accuracy or completeness.