The Trump Affect on Wisconsin

Donald Trump. Photo from the White House.

In Federalist No. 47, James Madison warned against tyranny, defining it in a way that may seem familiar:

The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.

In today’s Republican Party, Donald Trump’s vote is the only vote that counts. This is illustrated by the process of identifying the Republican candidate for governor of Wisconsin.

Among those expressing an interest in running for governor were Josh Schoemann, the Washington County executive, and Tom Tiffany, who represents Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District.

In January of this year, President Trump announced his endorsement of Tiffany for Wisconsin governor, saying that Tiffany had “always been at my side.”

Less than 24 hours after this, Schoemann dropped out of the race and endorsed Tiffany. At this month’s Wisconsin Republican convention, Republicans affirmed Trump’s decision and voted to support Tiffany.

In effect, the Wisconsin Republican Party has joined other state Republican parties around the country metamorphosing into the Trump political party. Discipline is enforced by Trump’s threat to primary any politician who disobeys Trump’s wishes.

Any Republican officeholder tempted to disagree with Trump needs only to look at the fate of Tom Massie, the incumbent U.S. House member in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District and a libertarian. The Atlantic magazine published articles written before and after Kentucky’s primary election took place and wrote this:

Massie might claim that he agrees with Trump “on nearly everything,” but he opposed the president’s biggest domestic priorities—the debt-ballooning tax bill and his tariff policy—and denounced as “not constitutional” Trump’s increased appetite for launching military strikes overseas without authorization from Congress.

On May 22, Massie lost the election, receiving 45.1% of the votes to 54.9% for the candidate Trump had recruited.

Massie was not alone in receiving Trump’s wrath for violating his instructions. When five Republican senators broke ranks and voted for a war powers resolution on the Iran invasion, Trump wrote in a post to Truth Social:

Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley, and Todd Young should never be elected to office again.

If I were an official with the Republican Party, I would find this alarming. Trump’s style of enforcing loyalty is precisely the opposite of building a big tent. Only those willing to attest that Trump is a genius are welcome. Others will take the message of Massie’s experience to heart.

As the chart below shows, Trump’s effort to keep himself at the center of attention comes as his approval rating is falling, partly because of his scheme to establish a nearly $1.8 billion retribution fund for supporters who claim to have been injured by government agencies. (Note that Marquette Law took the Wisconsin poll in March and the national poll in April.) The polls show that 63% nationally and 56% in Wisconsin disapprove of Trump, but perhaps worse: 50% nationally and 48% in Wisconsin strongly disapprove. Voters who feel that strongly are much more likely to turn out to vote. That could make it very difficult for Tiffany to win the general election.

Trump/MAGA Approval

Over the next six months or so, Massie and a number of other congressional representatives and senators—those who were successfully primaried as well as those who are retiring at the end of this term—will be free to speak and vote without worrying about Trump’s reaction. You might say they will be able to exit the Trump Republican Party. Tiffany, however, won’t have that option.