Data Wonk

District 8 Becoming More Democratic. Its Senator Isn’t.

State Sen. Dan Knodl votes like MAGA Republican in a nearly evenly divided district.

By - Jan 10th, 2024 05:03 pm
Dan Knodl. (Emily Hamer / Wisconsin Watch)

Dan Knodl. (Emily Hamer / Wisconsin Watch)

Senate District 8 covers Milwaukee suburbs to the north and northwest of the city, including parts of Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties. For years it was represented in Madison by Republican Alberta Darling, who announced her retirement at the end of 2022. In recent years, these suburbs have grown increasingly Democratic. In response, Republicans in the Legislature have moved an increasing number of the Milwaukee County communities out of District 8.

Despite this effort in the most recent redistricting to protect the seat for Republicans, District 8 has become increasingly competitive. As the graph below shows, in last spring’s special election to fill out the remainder of Darling’s term in office, the gap between Republican Dan Knodl and Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin was 1.8 percentage points.

The same voters favored Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal candidate for Wisconsin Supreme Court, over Daniel Kelly, the conservative candidate, by a margin of 1.4 percentage points.

2023 Votes in 8th Senate District

2023 Votes in 8th Senate District

Despite this trend towards a more competitive state Senate district, Knodl has done little to reach out to the growing number of Democrats among his constituents. Here are eight bills that Knodl sponsored or co-sponsored:

  • AB 1 (SB 1) would have replaced Wisconsin’ progressive income tax with a flat tax. When fully implemented, all taxable income in Wisconsin would be taxed at the rate of 3.25%, instead of increasing with income. The marginal rate for taxpayers with the highest income would drop from 7.65% by more than half. The biggest benefit of this proposal would accrue to the wealthiest taxpayers. The Wisconsin Department of Revenue calculated the plan would result in a reduction in revenue of $2.11 billion in 2024, which would grow to $2.85 billion in 2025, $4.31 billion in 2026, and $5.06 billion thereafter. Nor could this deficit be filled by federal American Rescue Plan Act funds, which were required to be used for recovery from the coronavirus epidemic. Wisconsin would thus have been required to repay funds received under the act. As a result, this bill appears stalled.
  • AB 45 (SB 49) would prohibit a municipality to place any restriction on an energy connection based on the source of energy. It was vetoed by Gov. Tony Evers because he objected to the “Legislature’s continued efforts to preempt local control and undermine trust in local governments.” Additionally, he noted the bill could make it more difficult to transition away from fossil fuels and combat climate change.
  • AJR 66 (SJR 63) This joint resolution would add an amendment to the Wisconsin Constitution that would require a two thirds vote for any tax increase. A proposed constitutional amendment requires adoption by two successive legislatures, and ratification by the people, before it can become effective.
  • AB 377 (SB 378) would define sex of athletes as the “sex determined at birth by a physician and reflected on the birth certificate.” It also “requires an educational institution to prohibit a male pupil from participating on an athletic team or in an athletic sport designated for females.” Twenty-six organizations are listed as opposing this bill and only two supporting it.

Among the opponents is the Wisconsin Interscholastic Athletic Association which states that ‘WIAA membership has an existing policy related to transgender athlete participation which has been professionally developed over time, has worked in practice, receives regular review, and has the support of the member schools.”

  • AB 415 (SB 488) would adopt the Iowa Redistricting model to Wisconsin. It would prohibit the use of “political affiliations of registered voters, previous election results, or demographic information” in redistricting. In Wisconsin, this restriction would make it impossible to design a map that is proportional to the vote. As the graph below shows, the Iowa model has a heavy bias favoring Republicans in Iowa too.
Comparing the Efficiency Gaps of Three Redistricting Maps

Comparing the Efficiency Gaps of Three Redistricting Maps

  • AB 494 (SB 582) would have made it more difficult for a voter to claim he or she is indefinitely confined in order to automatically receive absentee ballots. It passed the Legislature but was vetoed by Gov. Evers on December 6, 2023, commenting “It targets certain voters … to make it more difficult for eligible voters to vote.”
  • AB 638 (SB 606) This bill would require school boards to comply with a school district resident’s written request to inspect curricula or instructional materials used in a school in the school district by no later than 14 days after the school board receives the written request. While this requirement seems innocuous, it seems aimed at enabling right-wing groups, such as the misnamed Moms for Liberty, to harass and censor teachers, and control what schools can teach.
  • AB 899 (SB 834) would dissolve the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission and transfer its powers to the partisan Secretary of State. The Wisconsin Elections Commission replaced the nonpartisan Governmental Accountability Board because it had the temerity to investigate coordination between ostensibly independent groups and Scott Walker’s campaign committee. This would appear to complete the process of putting Wisconsin election regulations under the thumb of the Legislature. Knodl is listed as the sponsor in the senate.

The bills on this list are ones that Knodl co-sponsored or sponsored, not just voted for. In fact, he is listed as the main sponsor of the bill to abolish the Wisconsin Elections Commission. It is a list that one would expect from a senator whose district is heavily Republican.

There are several MAGA themes that run through this list, including a willingness to disempower other groups, including local governments or sports conferences, a meanness particularly with regard to trans children, and a willingness to pander to the MAGA crowd by undermining confidence in Wisconsin’s elections.

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Categories: Data Wonk, Politics

2 thoughts on “Data Wonk: District 8 Becoming More Democratic. Its Senator Isn’t.”

  1. Mingus says:

    The Democrats ran a campaign for this district primarily on a pro choice platform and ignored to bring in some significant local issues that could have made a difference. The addition of the Cedar Bluffs area near Port Washington was blocked by a secret vote of the Joint Finance Committee because some developer wanted the land. The optics does indicate corruption. The Mequon Thiensville School District was harassed with lawsuits and MAGNA candidates running for school board. Censorship of school curriculum and school libraries were also hot topics. These issues could have changed the minds of some Knodll voters who value public education, honesty, and transparency in government.

  2. danlarsen7007 says:

    The 8th District will likely become a swing district in the future. The key to the swing status will be the independent vote; I believe the independents that need to be won tend to be a bit more conservative. Once the Dems figure out how to carefully tune their message to pull in this key constituency, the magas will lose.

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