New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Trump at 51%, Biden at 49% in head-to-head matchup; each leads primary challenger by more than 50 points
Biden’s favorability more net negative, -20, than Trump’s, -9; two-thirds of respondents critical of Biden administration’s border policies; views of the economy have improved since September
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds former President Donald Trump is the choice of 51% of registered voters and President Joe Biden is the choice of 49%. Among likely voters, Trump receives 52% and Biden 48%.
The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May 2023, when it began asking about a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election, with the trend show in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May 2023-Feb. 2024
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Vote | |
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| 2/5-15/24 | 51 | 49 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 52 | 48 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 51 | 48 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 50 | 50 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 52 | 47 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? | ||
Table 2 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump.
Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote | |
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Total | 51 | 49 |
| Republican | 93 | 7 |
| Independent | 54 | 43 |
| Democrat | 9 | 91 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
Among likely voters, the trend is shown in Table 3. The likely-voter measure was not included prior to September.
Table 3: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, Sept. 2023-Feb. 2024
Among likely voters
| Poll dates | Vote | |
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| 2/5-15/24 | 52 | 48 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 51 | 49 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 49 | 51 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? | ||
Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, holds a larger lead over Biden than does Trump, with 58% of registered voters supporting her and 42% supporting Biden.
Haley holds Republican support against Biden as well as Trump does, while attracting a substantial cross-over vote from Democrats. Independents support Haley by a substantial margin, as shown in Table 4. Her strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic and independent voters than does Trump accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden than Trump’s.
Table 4: Vote for Biden or Haley, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote | |
| Nikki Haley | Joe Biden | |
| Total | 58 | 42 |
| Republican | 94 | 6 |
| Independent | 60 | 37 |
| Democrat | 21 | 79 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for Haley? | ||
Five-way race
When the ballot question is expanded to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 42% and Biden 39%. Kennedy is supported by 15%, West wins 3%, and Stein is the choice of 2%.
The five-way vote by party is shown in Table 5. The additional candidates draw partisan support away from both Trump and Biden. Trump holds 80% support from Republicans and Biden 78% support from Democrats. Kennedy wins slightly more of the vote from Republicans than he does from Democrats, while West and Stein draw more Democratic than Republican support. Independents are widely spread across the candidates, with the independent and third-party candidates doing much better than they do with partisans. Trump wins 34% of the vote of independents to Biden’s 18% when independent and third-party candidates are included.
Table 5: Five-candidate ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||||
| Biden | Trump | Kennedy | West | Stein | Refused | |
| Total | 39 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Republican | 4 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 18 | 34 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| Democrat | 78 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? | ||||||
GOP primary and Democratic primary
Trump receives 73% to Haley’s 15% in a matchup among Republican registered voters. In the November national survey, Trump was the choice of 54% and Haley the choice of 12%.
The full trend of GOP primary polling since March 2023 is shown in Table 6. The decline of Ron DeSantis’ support over the primary season and Trump’s rise are notable. Haley has had rising support but has not become competitive with Trump at any point in the last 11 months of polling. Trump has seen a substantial rise in support as the primary process has developed.
Table 6: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination
Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican
| Candidate | Poll dates | |||||
| 2/5-15/24 | 11/2-7/23 | 9/18-25/23 | 7/7-12/23 | 5/8-18/23 | 3/13-22/23 | |
| Donald Trump | 73 | 54 | 56 | 46 | 46 | 40 |
| Nikki Haley | 15 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Ron DeSantis | – | 12 | 12 | 22 | 25 | 35 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | – | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | – |
| Tim Scott | – | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Christie | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Burgum | – | – | 0 | 1 | – | – |
| Asa Hutchinson | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Pence | – | – | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Larry Elder | – | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Will Hurd | – | – | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| Undecided/Other | 12 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: If the Republican presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for? | ||||||
In the Democratic primary, Biden is the choice of 66%, with 6% supporting Marianne Williamson (who suspended her campaign during the field period of this poll) and 2% for Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips. A quarter of Democrats (27%) said they were undecided.
Last year, Kennedy was considering entering the Democratic primaries, and so was included in the primary ballot in previous surveys. The full trend for the Democratic primary vote is shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Support for Democratic 2024 presidential nomination
Among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic
| Candidate | Poll dates | |||
| 2/5-15/24 | 9/18-25/23 | 7/7-12/23 | 5/8-18/23 | |
| Joe Biden | 66 | 53 | 54 | 51 |
| Marianne Williamson | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Dean Phillips | 2 | – | – | – |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | – | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| Undecided | 27 | 31 | 27 | 30 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the Democratic presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for? | ||||
Favorability
Each of the candidates except Kennedy has a net negative favorability rating, as shown in Table 8. The independent candidates, Kennedy and West, have high rates of “haven’t heard enough,” as does Haley. Biden has the highest net negative favorability rating at -20, while Trump has a net -9 rating. The rating of Vice President Kamala Harris, who was included in this question, closely mirrors Biden’s.
Among registered voters
| Candidate | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Joe Biden | -20 | 40 | 60 | 1 |
| Kamala Harris | -19 | 37 | 56 | 7 |
| Nikki Haley | -13 | 34 | 47 | 19 |
| Cornel West | -9 | 12 | 21 | 67 |
| Donald Trump | -9 | 45 | 54 | 1 |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | 8 | 40 | 32 | 28 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
Biden’s favorability rating over time is shown in Table 9. Biden’s net favorability has fallen from -5 in November 2021 to -20 in the current survey.
Table 9: Biden favorability trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| 2/5-15/24 | -20 | 40 | 60 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | -19 | 40 | 59 | 1 |
| 9/18-25/23 | -21 | 39 | 60 | 1 |
| 7/7-12/23 | -17 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
| 5/8-18/23 | -23 | 37 | 60 | 3 |
| 3/13-22/23 | -15 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| 1/9-20/23 | -11 | 43 | 54 | 2 |
| 11/15-22/22 | -6 | 46 | 52 | 3 |
| 9/7-14/22 | -9 | 44 | 53 | 2 |
| 7/5-12/22 | -26 | 35 | 61 | 3 |
| 5/9-19/22 | -17 | 40 | 57 | 3 |
| 3/14-24/22 | -10 | 44 | 54 | 2 |
| 1/10-21/22 | -6 | 46 | 52 | 3 |
| 11/1-10/21 | -5 | 45 | 50 | 5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
The favorability trend for Trump is shown in Table 10. Trump’s net favorability has improved from -34 in November 2021 to -9 in the current poll.
Table 10: Trump favorability trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| 2/5-15/24 | -9 | 45 | 54 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | -15 | 42 | 57 | 2 |
| 9/18-25/23 | -15 | 42 | 57 | 1 |
| 7/7-12/23 | -28 | 35 | 63 | 2 |
| 5/8-18/23 | -21 | 38 | 59 | 2 |
| 3/13-22/23 | -29 | 34 | 63 | 2 |
| 1/9-20/23 | -26 | 36 | 62 | 2 |
| 11/15-22/22 | -36 | 31 | 67 | 1 |
| 9/7-14/22 | -30 | 34 | 64 | 2 |
| 7/5-12/22 | -27 | 35 | 62 | 3 |
| 5/9-19/22 | -23 | 37 | 60 | 2 |
| 3/14-24/22 | -22 | 38 | 60 | 2 |
| 1/10-21/22 | -37 | 31 | 68 | 1 |
| 11/1-10/21 | -34 | 32 | 66 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
For Biden and Trump, 17% of respondents are unfavorable to both candidates. The number of those unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 11. Biden had an advantage in favorability over Trump in most of the early polling, but Trump has held the advantage over the last three polls.
Table 11: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021-Feb. 2024
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability to both | ||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | Don’t know |
|
| 2/5-15/24 | 2 | 37 | 42 | 17 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 3 | 36 | 38 | 20 | 2 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 3 | 36 | 39 | 20 | 2 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 1 | 39 | 33 | 23 | 3 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 2 | 35 | 36 | 23 | 5 |
| 3/13-22/23 | 2 | 39 | 32 | 23 | 5 |
| 1/9-20/23 | 1 | 42 | 34 | 19 | 4 |
| 11/15-22/22 | 1 | 44 | 30 | 21 | 4 |
| 9/7-14/22 | 1 | 43 | 32 | 21 | 3 |
| 7/5-12/22 | 0 | 35 | 34 | 26 | 5 |
| 5/9-19/22 | 1 | 39 | 36 | 20 | 4 |
| 3/14-24/22 | 2 | 41 | 35 | 18 | 3 |
| 1/10-21/22 | 2 | 44 | 29 | 22 | 4 |
| 11/1-10/21 | 1 | 43 | 30 | 20 | 6 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
For a matter not shown in the table: Those favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump give Biden 98% of their votes in the current survey, while those favorable to Trump and unfavorable to Biden give Trump 100%. Those who are unfavorable to both have varied in their vote choices over recent polls. In the current poll, those unfavorable to both support Biden with 63% and Trump with 36%, while in November 2023 they supported Trump 52% to 48% for Biden, and in September it was 54% for Biden and 45% for Trump. (The sample size of those favorable to both Biden and Trump is too small for meaningful analysis.)
Vote by Biden approval
Biden’s job approval in February was 38% with 62% disapproving, down two points from November’s 40% approval and 60% disapproval.
A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval, has been his ability to win votes from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically splitting or winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 12 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval, while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters. Biden wins 60% for those somewhat disapproving of his job performance, against Trump’s 40%. In November, Biden took 55% to Trump’s 45% among the somewhat disapproving.
Table 12: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
| Biden job approval | Vote | |
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Total | 51 | 49 |
| Strongly approve | 2 | 98 |
| Somewhat approve | 9 | 91 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 40 | 60 |
| Strongly disapprove | 95 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||
Perceptions of Biden and Trump
Table 13 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy, and, to a lesser degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as better on abortion policy, health care, and handling Medicare and Social Security.
The combined percentage who say that neither candidate would be good on an issue or that each would both be about the same ranges from 17% to 29%, an indication that, even with two such well-known candidates, there remains considerable uncertainty over how successfully each would handle these issues.
Table 13: Who would handle issues better
Registered voters
| Issue | Who better on issue | |||
| Biden | Trump | Both about the same | Neither good | |
| Immigration and border security | 25 | 53 | 6 | 15 |
| Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | 28 | 43 | 11 | 18 |
| The economy | 32 | 52 | 7 | 10 |
| Foreign relations | 37 | 44 | 7 | 12 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 40 | 36 | 13 | 11 |
| Health care | 42 | 34 | 13 | 11 |
| Abortion policy | 42 | 34 | 11 | 12 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues? | ||||
On the issue of illegal immigration and border control, 46% strongly agree with the statement, “The Biden administration’s border policies have created a crisis of uncontrolled illegal migration into the country,” and an additional 20% somewhat agree. Fifteen percent strongly disagree with the statement, and 19% somewhat disagree.
Table 14 shows how well various phrases, in the opinion of respondents, describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as too old to be president, compared to those who see Trump as too old. Fifty-five percent say the phrase describes Biden very well, and 25% say the same of Trump.
On “shares your values,” more say this describes Trump very well than say this of Biden, but more also say this describes Trump not at all well than say the same of Biden.
Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates, with 30% saying “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well and 47% saying the same for Trump.
On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 17% say this describes Biden very well, while 35% say this describes Trump very well.
Table 14: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
| Issue | How well phrase describes | |||
| Very well | Somewhat well | Not too well | Not at all well | |
| Is too old to be president | ||||
| Biden | 55 | 23 | 11 | 11 |
| Trump | 25 | 28 | 23 | 24 |
| Shares your values | ||||
| Biden | 13 | 30 | 18 | 39 |
| Trump | 21 | 24 | 9 | 45 |
| Has behaved corruptly | ||||
| Biden | 30 | 18 | 18 | 34 |
| Trump | 47 | 15 | 19 | 19 |
| Has a strong record of accomplishments as president | ||||
| Biden | 17 | 24 | 21 | 38 |
| Trump | 35 | 16 | 15 | 34 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? | ||||
Small changes in public opinion after Special Counsel Hur’s report
Special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents was released on Feb. 8, during the field period of this survey.
Of those respondents interviewed before the report was released, 71% said they believed Biden had possessed classified documents at his home in Delaware. Of those interviewed after the report became public, 76% thought he had had classified documents. Comparing the full samples, in November, 71% believed Biden to have had classified documents and 74% believed this in February.
The report also raised public questions concerning Biden’s memory. For those interviewed before the report was released, 51% said “is too old to be president” describes Biden very well. For those interviewed after the report was released, 59% said it described him very well. Yet there was no overall increase from late last year, comparing the full samples: In November, 57% said “to old to be president” describes Biden very well and 55% said this in February.
Attention to topics in the news
Of recent events in the news, 56% said they had heard a lot about a jury ordering Trump to pay $83.3 million for defaming writer E. Jean Caroll, 29% had heard a little, and 15% had heard nothing at all.
After the start of the party primary season, 42% heard a lot about the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, 31% heard a little, and 27% heard nothing at all.
Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey—December for inflation and January for unemployment in this case. Table 15 shows that 40% report paying a lot of attention to news about inflation and 30% a lot of attention to news about unemployment. In November, 49% said they had heard a lot about inflation and 23% said they had heard a lot about unemployment.
Table 15: How much heard about economic news
Registered voters
| How much heard or read | |||
| Issue | A lot | A little | Nothing at all |
| Inflation rate | 40 | 44 | 16 |
| Unemployment rate | 30 | 48 | 23 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.4% over the past 12 months (as of December) | |||
| Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.7% (as of January) | |||
Economic perceptions
Views of the nation’s economy have improved somewhat since September, though more say it is “not so good” or “poor” than say it is “excellent” or “good.” Table 16 shows the trend over the past three polls.
Table 16: View of the national economy
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | View of the economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| 2/5-15/24 | 6 | 29 | 40 | 25 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 3 | 24 | 40 | 33 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 3 | 20 | 45 | 32 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Republicans and independents are quite negative and Democrats somewhat more positive about the state of the economy. Table 17 shows opinion of the economy overall and by party identification.
Table 17: View of the national economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | View of the economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| Total | 6 | 29 | 40 | 25 |
| Republican | 2 | 12 | 46 | 41 |
| Independent | 3 | 19 | 48 | 30 |
| Democrat | 11 | 49 | 32 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Asked about their personal financial situation, in February 42% say they are living comfortably, 41% are just getting by, and 17% say they are struggling. That is little changed from November when 39% said they were living comfortably, 43% were just getting by, and 19% said they were struggling.
Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy, regardless of respondents’ personal financial situations. Table 18 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party. Those with a better personal financial situation tend to see the economy as better than those with worse finances, but partisanship is strongly correlated with views of the economy in each category of personal finances.
Table 18: View of the economy by financial situation and by party identification
Among registered voters
| Financial situaion | View of the economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| Living comfortably | ||||
| Republican | 4 | 20 | 53 | 22 |
| Independent | 6 | 35 | 56 | 3 |
| Democrat | 17 | 54 | 26 | 3 |
| Just getting by | ||||
| Republican | 0 | 9 | 47 | 44 |
| Independent | 3 | 19 | 52 | 26 |
| Democrat | 4 | 44 | 43 | 9 |
| Struggling | ||||
| Republican | 0 | 3 | 31 | 65 |
| Independent | 0 | 2 | 34 | 63 |
| Democrat | 2 | 41 | 18 | 38 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
| Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? | ||||
International issues
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, 45% say the U.S. should support Israel, 7% say the U.S. should support Hamas, and 48% say the U.S. should not take a position on the conflict. In November 52% said the U.S. should support Israel, 5% said support Hamas, and 43% said the U.S. should not take a position.
Views of whom to support differ by party, with Republicans most supportive of Israel and the majorities of Democrats and, especially, independents saying the U.S. should not take a position, as shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Support Israel or Hamas | ||
| Support Israel | Support Hamas | Not take a position | |
| Total | 45 | 7 | 48 |
| Republican | 64 | 1 | 35 |
| Independent | 23 | 3 | 73 |
| Democrat | 31 | 13 | 56 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? | |||
Table 20 shows opinion by party from the November survey. While there has been little change among Republicans and independents, Democrats have become substantially more likely to say the U.S. should not take a position and less likely to say the U.S. should support Israel. Democrats saying the U.S. should support Hamas increased from 8% in November to 13% in February.
Table 20: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position by party identification
Among registered voters, November 2023
| Party ID | Support Israel or Hamas | ||
| Support Israel | Support Hamas | Not take a position | |
| Total | 52 | 5 | 43 |
| Republican | 65 | 1 | 34 |
| Independent | 21 | 4 | 75 |
| Democrat | 47 | 8 | 45 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 | |||
| Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? | |||
There are also sharp ideological differences, shown in Table 21, with conservatives much more in favor of supporting Israel, while a majority of somewhat liberal and very liberal registered voters say the U.S. should not take a position. One in five who consider themselves very liberal say the U.S. should support Hamas, as do 14% of those who are somewhat liberal.
Table 21: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by ideology
Among registered voters
| Support Israel or Hamas | |||
| Ideology ID | Support Israel | Support Hamas | Not take a position |
| Total | 45 | 7 | 48 |
| Very conservative | 72 | 0 | 27 |
| Somewhat conservative | 63 | 1 | 36 |
| Moderate | 35 | 5 | 60 |
| Somewhat liberal | 34 | 14 | 52 |
| Very liberal | 18 | 21 | 61 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? | |||
| Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views? | |||
Those in the youngest age group, 18-29, show the same levels of support for Israel and for Hamas, though 56% say the U.S. should not take a position. Support for Israel increases steadily with age, as shown in Table 22.
Table 22: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas or not take a position by age
Among registered voters
| Age | Support Israel or Hamas | ||
| Support Israel | Support Hamas | Not take a position | |
| Total | 45 | 7 | 48 |
| 18-29 | 23 | 22 | 56 |
| 30-44 | 33 | 7 | 60 |
| 45-59 | 46 | 3 | 51 |
| 60+ | 65 | 1 | 34 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? | |||
Abortion
Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 70% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 30% saying it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 23 shows the full trend on these preferences.
Table 23: Abortion policy preference trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Policy preference | |||
| Legal in all cases | Legal in most cases | Illegal in most cases | Illegal in all cases | |
| 2/5-15/24 | 30 | 40 | 24 | 6 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 28 | 38 | 25 | 9 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 33 | 36 | 25 | 6 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 29 | 36 | 29 | 6 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 32 | 36 | 26 | 6 |
| 3/13-22/23 | 28 | 36 | 29 | 6 |
| 1/9-20/23 | 26 | 38 | 29 | 7 |
| 11/15-22/22 | 31 | 37 | 24 | 8 |
| 9/7-14/22 | 32 | 35 | 27 | 6 |
| 7/5-12/22 | 29 | 35 | 28 | 8 |
| 5/9-19/22 | 29 | 37 | 25 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? | ||||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706 with a margin of error is +/-5 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 409 and the margin of error is +/-6.6 percentage points. For registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, the sample size in 382 and the margin of error is +/-6.8 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Feb. 21. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.
NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. While it is believed to be reliable, Urban Milwaukee does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
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