New Marquette Law School national survey finds a very close race for president in 2024; Trump and DeSantis top GOP primary field; Biden job approval rating declines to 39%

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds very close races between President Joe Biden and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical 2024 presidential elections. Among registered voters, Biden and Trump each receive 38% of the vote, with 20% saying that they would vote for someone else and 4% that they would not vote.

In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, DeSantis receives 42% and Biden is the choice of 41%, with 13% saying they would vote for someone else and 4% saying they would not vote.

Table 1: Biden vs. Trump trend, among registered voters
Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3
3/13-22/23	38	38	20	4

The trend in the Biden vs. Trump matchup is shown in Table 1 and the Biden vs DeSantis trend is shown in Table 2. While Biden led Trump through 2022, the two have been tied in the first two 2023 polls. DeSantis has also moved into a very close race with Biden, leading Biden in January by 7 points but holding just a 1-point edge in March. In both matchups, the relatively high percentages saying they would vote for “someone else” or would not vote indicates the potential for volatility in coming months as candidate choices become clarified. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 2: Biden vs. DeSantis trend, among registered voters

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote	Web blank
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5	0
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5	0
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5	0
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4	0
1/9-20/23	45	38	13	4	0
3/13-22/23	42	41	13	4	0

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Republican primary choices

Trump leads in the presidential nomination race, with 40% among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican, while DeSantis is the choice of 35%. Former Vice President Mike Pence is supported by 5% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 5%. No other potential candidate received more than 1% support, while 12% said they were undecided or did not support any of the 11 names offered in the question. Table 3 shows the full results.

Table 3: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, who would you vote for? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican. *=less than 0.5%

Candidate	Percent
Donald Trump	40
Ron DeSantis	35
Mike Pence	5
Nikki Haley	5
Mike Pompeo	1
Chris Sununu	1
Kristi Noem	*
Chris Christie	*
Tim Scott	*
Asa Hutchinson	*
Glenn Youngkin	*
Undecided	10
None of these	2

When asked to choose if the choice were between only Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 54% and Trump is the choice of 46%. That represents a sharp tightening of the race since January, when DeSantis received 64% to Trump’s 36%. The trend is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: If it were a choice between just the two of them, who would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
11/15-22/22	40	60
1/9-20/23	36	64
3/13-22/23	46	54

Among those who choose a candidate other than DeSantis or Trump in the multi-candidate question, DeSantis picks up almost three-quarters of the support when they are asked to decide between DeSantis and Trump. A handful of respondents shift away from their first choice of Trump or DeSantis in the subsequent two-candidate question. Those initially undecided or not choosing any named candidate split close to evenly when offered only Trump or DeSantis.

Table 5: Choice between Trump or DeSantis only, by first choice in multi-candidate question, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Respondent’s multi-candidate choice	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Trump	91	9
DeSantis	3	97
Other candidate	26	74
Undecided/None	43	56

DeSantis holds a slight lead among those who call themselves “Republicans,” but sees a larger advantage among independents who say they lean Republican, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by strength of Republican identification among registered voters

Strength of Republican identification	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Republican	48	52
Lean Republican	40	60

DeSantis has more support than Trump among those Republicans and Republican leaners who describe themselves as very or somewhat conservative, while Trump does better among those who consider themselves moderate or liberal.

Table 7: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by ideology among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Ideology	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Very conservative	46	54
Somewhat conservative	41	59
Moderate or liberal	53	46

Trump has greater support among Republicans without a college degree while DeSantis does better among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.

Table 8: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by education among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

College grad	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Non-college grad	51	49
College grad	37	63

DeSantis is well-liked among Republicans who also hold a favorable view of Trump, making him a competitor to Trump from inside Trump’s coalition. DeSantis is less well-liked among Republicans unfavorable to Trump. Table 9 shows favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump.

Table 9: DeSantis favorability, by Trump favorability among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Trump favorability	Favorable opinion of DeSantis	Unfavorable opinion of DeSantis	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	80	8	12
Unfavorable opinion	51	32	17

Despite leading Trump among those who prefer a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis, DeSantis has negative favorability among those respondents, and it is notably less favorable than among those who make Trump their top pick in the multi-candidate choice question. DeSantis has a quite favorable rating among those for whom Trump is their first choice for the presidential nomination.

Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by multi-candidate first choice among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Multi-candidate 1st choice	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Trump	71	10	19
DeSantis	93	5	2
Other candidate	36	42	23
Undecided/None	30	35	35

Favorability toward potential GOP candidates

For Republican voters, Trump is nearly universally known and Pence and DeSantis are fairly well-known. Most other potential Republican candidates are far less familiar to Republican voters. Table 11 shows the favorable, unfavorable, and haven’t-heard-enough responses to eight potential candidates.

Table 11: Favorability ratings of potential Republican candidates, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Trump	66	31	2
Pence	48	41	11
DeSantis	69	15	15
Pompeo	31	24	45
Haley	40	13	47
Scott	30	7	63
Noem	26	9	64
Youngkin	23	11	66

Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans and independents who lean Republican has declined since July 2022, when he peaked in the Marquette survey at 76%, to 66%, despite a 70% favorable rating in January. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Trump favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	70	29	1
1/10-21/22	71	28	1
3/14-24/22	75	23	1
5/9-19/22	75	22	2
7/5-12/22	76	22	2
9/7-14/22	74	25	1
11/15-22/22	67	32	1
1/9-20/23	70	28	2
3/13-22/23	66	31	2

DeSantis’s favorable ratings also dipped slightly in March after steadily rising in the previous year of polling, as shown in Table 13.

Table 13: DeSantis favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	57	9	34
3/14-24/22	57	7	35
5/9-19/22	58	15	27
7/5-12/22	62	9	29
9/7-14/22	65	10	25
11/15-22/22	68	10	22
1/9-20/23	71	10	19
3/13-22/23	69	15	15

Favorability to governors

For comparison with widely mentioned possible presidential candidates, the survey also asked about five Republican and five Democratic governors. These figures are all prominent in their own states but are not well-known nationally. For these ratings, each was identified as a governor and the state was mentioned, but not the governor’s party. The potential presidential candidates, discussed above, were not identified by current or past office. (Youngkin was included in both lists. Identifying him as governor of Virginia in the governors’ list only slightly reduced the percentage saying they hadn’t heard enough about him.)

Table 14 shows the favorability ratings for five Republican governors among Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

Table 14: Favorability ratings of Republican governors, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Greg Abbott, Texas	59	9	32
Brian Kemp, Georgia	28	12	60
Glenn Youngkin, Virginia	30	9	61
Mike DeWine, Ohio	20	10	69
Chris Sununu, New Hampshire	13	12	75

Favorability ratings for five Democratic governors, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, are shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Favorability ratings of Democratic governors, among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Gavin Newsom, California	48	16	35
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan	43	5	52
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania	22	7	72
Wes Moore, Maryland	12	6	82
Jared Polis, Colorado	13	5	83

Presidential approval

Approval of Biden’s handling of his job as president declined in March to 39%, with 61% disapproving. In January, 43% approved and 56% disapproved. Biden’s approval in March is the second-lowest of his presidency in the Marquette Law School Poll. The full trend for Biden approval in Marquette Law School Poll national surveys is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Biden job approval, among all adults

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55
1/9-20/23	43	56
3/13-22/23	39	61

Biden’s favorability ratings among all adults also closely mirrors his approval rating and also declined in March, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Biden favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	45	49	6
1/10-21/22	45	51	4
3/14-24/22	44	53	3
5/9-19/22	40	55	4
7/5-12/22	34	62	4
9/7-14/22	43	54	3
11/15-22/22	43	53	3
1/9-20/23	41	54	4
3/13-22/23	37	59	4

As shown in Table 18, Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability is a bit below that of Biden, which is common for vice presidents, as is her higher “haven’t heard enough” percentage.

Table 18: Harris favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	38	46	16
1/10-21/22	37	49	14
9/7-14/22	36	52	13
11/15-22/22	34	50	16
1/9-20/23	32	54	13
3/13-22/23	31	54	16

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was mentioned frequently in recent coverage of a train derailment and chemical spill in Ohio. His favorable rating has barely changed since September, although his unfavorable ratings have increased since November and fewer people say they lack an opinion of him, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Buttigieg favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	28	27	45
9/7-14/22	26	33	42
11/15-22/22	26	29	45
1/9-20/23	25	32	43
3/13-22/23	26	36	38

The freight train derailment and hazardous chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, were widely known, with 62% saying they had heard a lot about this, 25% saying they had heard a little, and 13% having heard nothing at all.

Those who heard a lot were more unfavorable to Buttigieg than those who heard less, although there was no difference on the favorable side of the ratings by amount heard concerning the derailment, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Buttigieg favorability rating by amount heard about train derailment, among all adults

Heard about derailment	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
A lot	29	41	30
A little	28	32	40
Nothing at all	7	25	69

Abortion issues

As stated in a release yesterday concerning the same national survey but focusing on public opinion about the Supreme Court, a majority, 67%, of all those polled oppose the Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned abortion rights established in Roe v. Wade in 1973, while 33% favor the Dobbs decision. Opposition to the Dobbs decision has remained stable since November 2022, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? among all adults

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64
3/13-22/23	33	67

That is the only table repeated from yesterday’s release, given the relationship of its topic with the topics of the next two tables.

Opinion about abortion policy has fluctuated only slightly since May 2022, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? among all adults

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
5/9-19/22	29	38	24	8
7/5-12/22	28	36	27	8
9/7-14/22	31	37	26	6
11/15-22/22	29	36	26	9
1/9-20/23	26	38	28	8
3/13-22/23	28	39	27	6

As states have adopted widely varying laws concerning abortion following the Dobbs ruling, public opinion has strongly favored allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 88% in favor and 11% saying abortion should not be allowed in these circumstances. In September 2022, 90% said abortion should be allowed and 10% said it should not be in this circumstance.

[inarticled]A large majority, 74%, oppose states being able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill prescriptions for medication to induce an abortion from out of state providers, while 26% favor states having that ability.

The public is substantially opposed to restrictions on travel to another state to obtain a legal abortion, with 81% saying states should not be able to make such travel illegal and 19% saying states should be able to ban out-of-state travel for abortions.

Opinion is evenly divided on a proposal to pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Table 23 shows opinion on this, with partisan differences. Republicans and Democrats are virtual mirror images on this question, while independents are more evenly divided.

Table 23: Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, among all adults

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Total	49	51
Republican	74	26
Independent	46	53
Democrat	25	75

Vouchers for private schools

Several states recently have passed or are considering proposals to provide state funding for vouchers to pay for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools. Opinion is closely divided on this among adults nationally, with substantial partisan differences as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, among all adults

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Total	53	47
Republican	62	38
Independent	60	37
Democrat	42	58

Support for such vouchers is stronger among those with school-age children in the home than those without children, shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by school-age children in home, among all adults

School-age children?	Favor funding	Oppose
Kids at home	63	37
No kids at home	49	51

Those who say they are born-again Protestants or are Roman Catholics are more supportive of school vouchers than are those of other faiths or those without a religious identification, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools by religious identification, among all adults

Religion	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	67	33
Mainline Protestant	49	51
Roman Catholic	67	33
No religion	36	63
Other religion	48	51

Views of the police

Forty-four percent of respondents in this national poll say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, 33% have some confidence, and 23% have little or no confidence. Confidence is higher among white respondents and lower among Hispanic and mixed-race people and is especially low among Black respondents, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: The police: here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicity	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
White	52	31	17
Black	17	39	44
Hispanic	33	38	28
Other/Multiple	37	33	29

A majority, 57%, say that recent killings of Black Americans by the police is part of a larger pattern of police treatment of Black people, while 43% say these are isolated incidents. Table 28 shows how these views differ by race and ethnicity of respondents.

Table 28: Do you think recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents or part of a larger pattern in the police’s treatment of Black Americans? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicity	Isolated incidents	Part of a larger pattern
White	54	46
Black	8	90
Hispanic	35	65
Other/Multiple	21	79

Aid to Ukraine

Opinion on U.S. military aid to Ukraine has shown partisan divisions in recent months. In this March poll, 34% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 41% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. The percentage saying “too much support” increased by 5 percentage points from January, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Poll dates	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
11/15-22/22	32	23	45
1/9-20/23	29	24	46
3/13-22/23	34	24	41

Table 30 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the March poll. Just over half of Republicans, 52%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree with that view.

Table 30: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	34	24	41
Republican	52	15	33
Independent	36	18	45
Democrat	16	36	48

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 55% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 45% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out and a minority, 41%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?, among all adults

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	55	45
Republican	48	52
Independent	41	56
Democrat	67	33

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, March 29, 2023, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.

NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. While it is believed to be reliable, Urban Milwaukee does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.