Is Democratic Race for Governor Finally Starting?

Rep. Francesca Hong, third from left, speaks to the audience during the year’s first Democratic gubernatorial candidate forum, Jan. 21, 2026, at The Cooperage in Milwaukee. The candidates are, from left, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Hong, Sen. Kelda Roys, former Wisconsin Economic Development Commission CEO Missy Hughes, former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. (Joe Timmerman / Wisconsin Watch)

These are good days for Mandela Barnes.

The former Lt Governor and losing candidate for U.S. Senator in 2022 has by far the most statewide name recognition in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor, and the sleepy nature of this race has to delight his campaign team. No one except socialist Francesca Hong looms as a possible threat, and she has had a stumble or two lately, all of which means Barnes can stay the course with his solid statewide campaign and likely coast to victory.

But recent ads supporting three of his opponents — Sara Rodriguez, David Crowley and Joel Brennan — aim to win voters. Are they likely to change the campaign?

The ad for Rodriguez, who currently serves as lieutenant governor, connects her prior job as a nurse to “standing up for Wisconsin families” by fighting against the rise in health care prices and for reproductive rights. The ad uses a cartoon-like and graffiti-ish style — trying to appeal to younger voters? — that may help it stand out while also annoying some viewers. But it’s a third-party or independent ad and thus can’t mention she is running for governor. And the amount spent for TV ads — $600,000 to date — won’t have much impact.

The ad for Crowley is more traditional in tone and style, more pleasing for viewers but an immediate tipoff it’s a political ad, which can be a disadvantage. It contrasts Trump’s wars and tariffs raising prices with “County Executive David Crowley,” who is “fighting back to make life more affordable for Wisconsin families.” Compared to Rodriguez, whose ad promises she will do something for voters, this ad shows Crowley is already doing something for families, a stronger message. But this, too, is a third-party ad, so we never learn Crowley is running for governor. And the spending on this is small, just $100,000. Definitely not a game changer.

The Crowley ad, argues longtime political pundit and former legislator Mordecai Lee, also misses a chance at a potent symbol. His black-frame glasses “are the perfect trademark,” Lee told Urban Milwaukee. “The campaign committee could offer as merch those (empty) black frames, lawn signs with just a graphic of the glasses and his name, etc.” It’s a missed opportunity, he says.

The most recent ad was released today by Brennan, the former head of Discovery World and top official in the administration of Gov. Tony Evers. Unlike the ads for Rodriguez and Crowley, this was released by his campaign and can hit hard that he’s running for governor, though it doesn’t maximize that opportunity. It’s a charming ad with his children talking about his strengths and weaknesses, and Brennan comes through as he is: a nice guy and down-to-earth fellow with a strong résumé. But the kids are almost more dominant than the dad. And the buy isn’t big: his campaign has booked about $110,000 in TV ads in Milwaukee, Green Bay and La Crosse markets. That won’t move the needle much.

Last week Brennan released a list of endorsements by 20 former legislators, which had some observers puzzled: These were all white people, some of whom hadn’t served in the state Legislature in nearly half a century. The conservative Heartland Signal offered a takedown calling it “A who’s who of… who? Joel Brennan’s endorsement list features retired legislators from the 80s and 90s, none of whom have served in the last decade.”

The assumption about Brennan was that his wealthy brother-in-law might pay big for third-party ads dominating the airwaves. But as one Democratic consultant told Urban Milwaukee, “realistically, they should have started two months ago.”

Brennan is in the same position that former Milwaukee Bucks vice president Alex Lasry was back in 2021, a promising candidate with little name recognition who ran for the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator. Lasry spent $17 million trying to overcome the favorite Mandela Barnes and finally withdrew from the race after a 17-month effort.

Barnes is not as strong in polls as he was back then. Even so, Brennan would need to spend at least $10 million and start immediately, the consultant says, if he has any chance to contest the name recognition of Barnes and surpass the current support among Democratic voters for Hong and Barnes. They were both 8 to 11 points ahead of any of the other candidates in the most recent Marquette poll.

Hong has been the biggest surprise of the campaign and didn’t help herself by how she handled her past statements calling for defunding the police. This is unlikely to faze her supporters, who are socialists and far-left progressives, but it might limit how much she can grow her support. But the more recent controversy, that she owed credit card debt from her restaurant business, might actually help her. As Hong noted, the debt allies her with the many Wisconsin people who are struggling to get by “while billionaires and corporations are making record profits off of our hard work.”

“Her campaign is the only one running a post-Trump, post-Mandami style campaign,” argues Milwaukee attorney and former legislative candidate Dan Adams.

Barnes, meanwhile, has run a smart, largely error-free campaign. When President Donald Trump traveled to Wisconsin for a campaign speech declaring his love for Wisconsin farmers, Barnes released a plan to protect farmers by enforcing antitrust laws to break up out-of-state monopolies that are pricing out farms and investing in family farms by providing tax credits and down payment assistance.

Barnes also used this situation to wangle interviews on CNN and MS Now talking about how Wisconsin farmers have been hurt by Trump. Barnes doesn’t blow you away in these appearances, but his passion comes through and his campaign continues to look more opportunistic than others.

This weekend all seven candidates for the nomination will give speeches at the state Democratic convention. It presents an opportunity for a candidate to stand out in a new way, though that rarely happens, Lee notes.

“It’s hard to imagine that the speech to the convention can be a breakout moment,” he says. “It would have to be a claim or attack that is so over-the-top it would dominate the media coverage of the convention and have a lasting impact on several news cycles.”

And if no one succeeds in doing this, the campaign will be right back where it’s been for the last five months or so, with little to separate the candidates and slumbering toward the August election.