11 Takeaways From Justice Bradley Quitting

Justice Rebecca Bradley. (Coburn Dukehart / Wisconsin Watch)

The recent announcement by Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley that she won’t run for reelection wasn’t a complete shock: Bradley had raised no money in the first half of 2025, while her liberal opponent Chris Taylor had taken in more than $583,000 in campaign dollars.

Still, it’s rare that an incumbent of any kind, much less at the relatively tender age (for politicians) of 54, steps down, much less from a post with such a long cushy term of office, 10 years. Bradley might have hoped to serve another twenty. So why drop out?

Ever the sourpuss, Bradley blamed the whole thing on others: “The conservative movement needs to take stock of its failures, identify the problem, and fix it,” Bradley said in her statement on Friday.

In fact, her withdrawal tells us a lot about Bradley, none of it good, and about the state of politics in Wisconsin, which has changed drastically, seemingly overnight, though not really. I count 11 takeaways for those of us reading the political tea leaves in this ever unpredictable state.

1. Bradley was too extreme: As Mike Browne, deputy director of A Better Wisconsin Together, gleefully announced Friday, “Her announcement today is an admission, before a single vote is cast, that her brand of vitriol and right-wing extremism can’t win a state Supreme Court race.” Well, he would say that. Though there’s no doubt Bradley has a history of making extreme statements, exacerbated by nasty attacks on her fellow justices in mean-spirited dissents that would have been fodder for campaign ads. One source tells me Republican polls couldn’t get Bradley any closer than a 7 point defeat no matter how they described her reelection effort.

2. Nobody wanted Bradley. Bradley has been shopping herself for months, to the Republican Party, to top conservative donors, and the administration of Donald Trump, which was looking for a conservative to replace Diane Sykes on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. He chose Assistant U.S. Attorney Rebecca Taibleson, who was 12 years younger and apparently much nicer than Bradley.

3. Mega–donors rule: Political campaigns have gotten so expensive that you almost have to have a billionaire’s backing to run for statewide office. For Republicans in Wisconsin that means you need the backing of Diane Hendricks or Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein. Or all three. Bradley apparently couldn’t convince any of them to back her, probably because they were hearing from top Republicans that she couldn’t win.

4. Republicans are less loyal: In 2017 incumbent conservative Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman decided not to run for a second 10-year term in 2018, because Republicans felt he was unelectable due to his past controversies and ethical conflicts. Now they’ve pulled the plug on Bradley. Are they less loyal than Democrats? Consider how the Dems stuck with Joe Biden even as he doddered into semi-senility.

5.Bradley has given Republicans little time. “The first day to circulate nomination papers is Dec 1, only 90 days from now,” as longtime Democratic pundit Mordecai Lee noted. “And due on Jan 6. It’s asking a lot for any candidate to go from a dead start to accomplish so much in so short a time: organizing, fundraising, volunteers, op research, strategy, etc.”

6. Chris Taylor may have scared off conservative candidates. Her campaign manager Ashley Franz said on Friday that Taylor has by now raised over a million dollars. The only conservative candidate who appears willing to run is state Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar. Odds are there will be no conservative primary so the general election will effectively start January 6, Lee predicted.

7. Republicans will do better without Bradley. The traditional wisdom is an incumbent has a built-in advantage. But as one veteran Democratic strategist told Urban Milwaukee, “Bradley was well defined and an easy target. Almost anyone they find will have less baggage than she has.” In short, Lazar may be a tougher opponent for Taylor than Bradley.

8. Democrats have a clear edge in state judicial races. Over the last five races for Wisconsin’s high court, the liberal candidate has won four of the five elections, each time by at least 10 percentage points. This has been a disastrous streak for Republicans, making clear that what they are doing is not working and they probably have nothing to lose by ditching Bradley. They need to hit on a different recipe for victory.

9. Abortion has been a crucial issue. Polls have consistently shown a huge majority of Wisconsin voters, about 64%, oppose overturning Roe v. Wade and support abortion rights. That issue may not matter so much in a race for U.S. Senator or even governor, but it’s a key issue for a Supreme Court race, given that judges are likely to rule on abortion-related cases. This has consistently hurt conservative justices running for the court, would have hurt Bradley and will be a tough issue for Lazar assuming she runs.

10. Both parties face upside-down elections. For decades Democrats benefited from big turnout presidential elections, while Republicans feasted on off-year elections like judicial races, where their more educated, well-to-do voters were more likely to turn out. Under Donald Trump that has changed: Republicans now depend far more on less educated voters while they are losing college graduates to the Democratic Party. An analysis by Split Ticket found that in Wisconsin’s 2025 Supreme Court race, the liberal Susan Crawford gained her 10-point margin mostly because of a higher turnout by Democrats:

“Our estimate is that the voters who voted in the 2025 Supreme Court election backed Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024. In other words, roughly 70% of Susan Crawford’s win margin was attributable to changes in who was voting, rather than changes in how people voted.”

“Looking forward to 2026,” this off-year election turnout advantage for Democrats “could prove crucial to flipping the state legislature and holding their existing statewide offices.” It could also help Democrats flip the Third Congressional District seat now held by Republican Derrick Van Orden, the analysis predicted.

11. Democrats are aping Republican campaign rhetoric. In the age of Trump, it’s cool to be mean and nasty, and viciously simple rhetoric is all the rage. You’ll no doubt be hearing lots of this from operatives like the new chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Devin Remiker, who fired off this salvo on Bradley’s withdrawal: “No matter who the far-right picks, their next candidate will join a long list of disappointments like Brad Schimel and Dan Kelly. Rumored sacrificial lamb Maria Lazar would be yet another corporate billionaire-funded disaster for Republicans, having been Scott Walker’s hand-picked minion to defend Act 10 and proudly touting endorsements from the Supreme Strangler David Prosser, Pro-Life Wisconsin, and the disbarred nutjob Michael Gableman.”

Grr.