Hovde Won’t Concede, Offers Baseless Election Fraud Charges

Eric Hovde.

“Throughout my campaign, I’ve emphasized the need to come together, restore trust in our elections, reduce divisions and focus on building a better Wisconsin for everyone,” says Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde in a newly-released video.

But coming together doesn’t include conceding that Tammy Baldwin won the election. And “restoring trust in our elections” now includes casting substantial doubt about the legitimacy of 108,325 votes in Milwaukee.

“I was shocked by what unfolded on election night. At 1 a.m. I was receiving calls of congratulations, and based on the models, it appeared I would win the senate race,” says Hovde.

But Hovde’s followers and modelers appear to have celebrated too soon.

At 11:05 p.m., Urban Milwaukee reported that the city had 108,325 absentee votes it would report in the early morning hours. At 11:30 p.m., using rough math to compare the number of absentee results outstanding to prior election results, Urban Milwaukee reported that Democrats could expect to gain 90,000 votes from all of Milwaukee County’s outstanding absentee ballots. The total would have been enough to erase the appearance of a lead for Hovde. Other individuals analyzing results before Milwaukee absentee ballots were reported also concluded that the Senate race would be close, while Donald Trump already appeared to have enough to defeat Kamala Harris.

Hovde, in his video, claims that Baldwin won nearly 90% of those 107,568 city absentee ballots cast in the Senate race. “Statistically, this outcome seems improbable as it didn’t match the patterns of same day voting in Milwaukee where I received 22% of the votes,” says Hovde. But the results posted on the city website, which were certified Monday, show Baldwin won 82% of the vote and Hovde 16.4%. Those percentages are consistent with what Urban Milwaukee recorded as the votes were being uploaded to the county’s website at 4:30 a.m. Hovde, according to city results, won 21.7% of election day votes, further shrinking the gap.

Baldwin earned approximately 70,000 more of the city’s absentee votes than Hovde, giving her a statewide lead of approximately 16,000 once they were reported. The New York Times, based on unofficial results, currently has Baldwin winning Wisconsin by 29,116 votes.

The timing issue stems from a statewide restriction on processing early votes until polls open. Wisconsin is one of only two states with a restriction on any pre-election processing, which results in hours of opening, sorting, processing and recording ballots before any tabulating can be done. The issue is further compounded because absentee ballots continue to arrive on election day, with the city’s total growing from approximately 106,000 to 108,325 by the time polls closed at 8 p.m. Milwaukee, which wasn’t the last to report, saw a further delay because of a need to reprocess approximately 31,000 ballots following a failure to properly lock tabulating machines. Hovde’s video doesn’t mention Oak Creek, which still had more than 12,000 absentee ballots outstanding at the time Milwaukee’s were reported.

Hovde’s four-minute video casts several questions about election data that don’t hold up.

“Somehow, Harris received only 1,100 less votes than [Joe Biden] did, which is not consistent with most major cities,” says Hovde, while citing a decline in the city’s population and preregistered voters. But, while the city residents cast 2,000 more total votes in a 2024 race that drew a surge in turnout across the state, Harris received almost 3,000 votes less than Biden and Trump received 3,000 more than he did in 2020. Hovde does not mention the latter, nor that Trump outperformed him statewide.

Hovde also notes that certain wards had turnouts of more than 150%. Such figures are computed by the total of number of votes cast compared to previously registered voters and can yield eye-popping percentages, but can often be attributed to high turnouts and wards where residents both move frequently and are not regular voters. Based on a review of Milwaukee County Election Commission data, only one such ward exceeded 150%: ward 187. The ward in question consists of the western edge of the Marquette University campus and includes substantial student housing.

An official canvas is to be completed by Nov. 19, giving Hovde the chance to formally request a recount. But Hovde is already casting doubt about the validity of such a process.

“There are meaningful limits on a recount because they don’t look at the integrity of a ballot,” says Hovde. He then pivots to attack the third-party candidates on the ballot and how they received support from individuals affiliated with the Democratic Party. “If either of the candidates had not been in the race, the outcome would be different today.” Perhaps, but that’s neither illegal nor unusual.

Many people have reached out to me with concerns about the voting inconsistencies we experienced on Election Day. Here are my thoughts: pic.twitter.com/zDvaeHaizw

— Eric Hovde (@EricHovde) November 12, 2024

While this article was being edited, the Milwaukee Election Commission issued a statement: “The Milwaukee Election Commission (MEC) unequivocally refutes Eric Hovde’s baseless claims regarding the integrity of our election process. Every aspect of the MEC’s operations was conducted with transparency and in strict adherence to established laws and procedures. It is both expected and routine that absentee ballots—over 100,000 in this case—are counted and reported in the late hours of Election Night due to Wisconsin’s high voter turnout and the rigorous verification standards the MEC upholds. Unlike states led by both Republicans and Democrats that permit absentee ballots to be processed ahead of Election Day, Wisconsin does not, which can result in the reporting of large numbers of absentee ballots late at night. The state of Wisconsin proudly allows same-day voter registration, and this historic election saw record-breaking turnout as many newly registered voters exercised their right to support their preferred candidates. The MEC celebrates the dedication of Milwaukee residents to participate in the democratic process and is fully confident that Mr. Hovde’s accusations lack any merit. Milwaukee voters can rest assured: the MEC conducted a fair, accurate, and secure election that fully protects voter rights and preserves the democratic process.”