Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District Might Be Competitive Again
Gov. Evers' legislative map rebalances district held by Republicans for two decades.
Wisconsin’s most competitive congressional district for the next decade might be in southeast Wisconsin under a political map drawn by Gov. Tony Evers and approved last month by the state Supreme Court.
While Evers’ map was chosen by a 4-3 majority of the court because it was the best example of a “least changes” redistricting plan, it adds and removes territory from the 1st District’s boundaries in subtle but significant ways.
At the western end of the district, it would add Democratic areas around Beloit and Janesville while gaining ground around the Milwaukee suburbs in the east. At the same time, the new district would lose a portion of Waukesha County, a Republican stronghold that’s been part of the 1st since the early 1990s.
J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said both changes benefit Democrats. Former Republican President Donald Trump carried the 1st by about nine percentage points in 2020, but Coleman said Trump’s margin in the new district would have been just two points.
“That could be maybe the most competitive district in the state over the next decade,” Coleman said. “I know that Steil seems to be pretty well entrenched. He fits the area well. But you never know.”
The 3rd would change very little under the map drawn by Evers, Coleman said, but demographic changes in the district favor Republicans.
“Education is becoming, you know, right up there with race or gender when it comes to predicting how people vote,” Coleman said. “And District 3 just doesn’t have much of a college white population, which means that’s bad for the Democrats.”
Another challenge for Democrats, particularly this year, will be holding the 3rd following the retirement of Democratic U.S. Rep. Ron Kind. Kind won his last election against Republican Derrick Van Orden by about 2.7 percentage points. Van Orden is running again, and Coleman said national trends suggest this will be much more of a Republican year.
Wisconsin’s current U.S. House delegation is split 5-3 in favor of Republicans. Coleman said Republicans could make it 6-2 this year but will never flip the 2nd District in Madison or the 4th District in Milwaukee, two Democratic strongholds.
Coleman said that under the new map, Democrats could potentially win three or four seats in a Democratic year, which would mean their best outcome would likely be an even 4-4 split.
Coleman said it creates better odds for Democrats than they would have had under the map drawn by GOP lawmakers, which could have solidified a 6-2 GOP split.
Assuming the state Supreme Court doesn’t make additional changes, the map drawn by Evers took effect in an unceremonious way.
After the Wisconsin Supreme Court chose the map in its March 3 ruling, Republicans appealed almost immediately to the U.S. Supreme Court. They also appealed the state Supreme Court’s ruling that chose the governor’s legislative redistricting plan.
The U.S. Supreme Court handed Republicans a win on March 23 when it rejected Evers’ legislative map, but justices denied the appeal of the governor’s congressional redistricting plan.
Congressional Republicans then asked the Wisconsin Supreme Court to reconsider its original ruling, but the state Supreme Court simply never responded.
Attorneys for the Wisconsin Elections Commission then sent a letter to the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Tuesday telling justices that the agency was notifying elections officials throughout the state that it would implement Evers’ map ahead of the Friday, April 15 deadline when candidates begin to circulate nominating papers.
As of Friday afternoon, the state Supreme Court had yet to publicly acknowledge the letter.
Listen to the WPR report here.
New congressional map creates competitive district in southeast Wisconsin was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.
More about the Gerrymandering of Legislative Districts
- Data Wonk: Examining Wisconsin Gerrymandering By Analyzing 2022 Election Results - Bruce Thompson - Jan 13th, 2023
- DOJ Joins Coalition Urging Supreme Court Not to Weaken Voting Rights Act Protections in Alabama Redistricting Case - Wisconsin Department of Justice - Jul 25th, 2022
- The State of Politics: How Republicans Won Redistricting Fight - Steven Walters - Apr 25th, 2022
- Redistricting Update - Wisconsin Elections Commission - Apr 18th, 2022
- Gov. Evers Releases Statement Reacting to Wisconsin Supreme Court Decision Regarding Redistricting - Gov. Tony Evers - Apr 15th, 2022
- Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District Might Be Competitive Again - Shawn Johnson - Apr 15th, 2022
- Data Wonk: State’s Gerrymander Could Last Forever - Bruce Thompson - Mar 30th, 2022
- Op Ed: US Supreme Court Throws State Election Into Chaos - Ruth Conniff - Mar 27th, 2022
- Redistricting Case Returns to State Supreme Court - Shawn Johnson - Mar 25th, 2022
- Gov. Evers Releases Statement on U.S. Supreme Court Decision Regarding Redistricting - Gov. Tony Evers - Mar 23rd, 2022
Read more about Gerrymandering of Legislative Districts here
2 thoughts on “Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District Might Be Competitive Again”
Hey Ward, were’s your Klan O’Donnell reply to this.
My guess your hate radio white flight angry white maleness should be pissed at this!?
A competitive district!@#@ WTF
Or is removing a minority district from 6 to 5 ignoring population growth is good enough! I’m guessing you get enough rubbles via the NRA and the RNC you’re not worried.
Our partisan supreme court (no caps used by in describing them for 10 years) saw to it it safely remains a GOP seat.