The State of Wasted Votes
Republican gerrymander wastes up to 10% of state votes, but Supreme Court seems unconcerned.
When the Supreme Court of the United States returned a closely-followed case on redistricting in Wisconsin to a lower court, the majority’s decision suggested that they did not completely accept a specific metric of gerrymandering known as the efficiency gap. However, this action also suggested that a majority of the justices are interested in figuring out how to address the issue of partisan gerrymandering.
The court ruled on June 18, 2018 that plaintiffs in Gill v. Whitford did not establish that they had been personally and directly injured by the Wisconsin Legislature’s 2011 Assembly district map, and therefore had no legal standing to bring the case to the Court. Federal courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, only have jurisdiction in cases where the plaintiff can show that they suffered direct personal injury due to the conduct of the defendant and that they have “a personal stake in the outcome of the controversy.”
Cracking refers to the practice of drawing district boundaries in such a way that geographic clusters of votes for one party’s candidates are divided across multiple districts, making it hard for them to win representation in any.
Packing, on the other hand, refers to drawing boundaries in such a way as to cram as many votes for a party as possible into a single district. This practice makes it very easy for the packed party voters to win representation in that district, but effectively keeps its voters out of neighboring districts, making it easier for the majority party to preserve its majority in a legislature as a whole.
In Wisconsin, the plaintiffs argued that the Republican-controlled statehouse pursued partisan gerrymandering when it controlled the decennial redistricting process in 2011. The patterns of cracking and packing can be examined in the Assembly districts around the Milwaukee region, particularly when compared with the previous set of maps devised in 2001.
Calculating the efficiency gap
During oral arguments in October 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court heard several types of arguments that a dilution of the plaintiffs’ votes had occurred following adoption of the 2011 district map. The primary evidence was a measure called the efficiency gap. “Efficiency” refers to how efficiently a political party can turn its votes into representation across multiple legislative districts, with as few “wasted votes” as possible.
To calculate the efficiency gap for a state legislature, two kinds of voting outcomes are important within each district: all the votes for the losing candidate, and all the votes for the winner in excess of the exact number needed to win the seat in a given election — half of all the votes cast plus one vote. Third party votes are ignored in this calculation.
Using the November 2016 election results for the Wisconsin Assembly’s District 76 as an example, it’s a definitively “blue” district where the Democratic incumbent Chris Taylor won a decisive victory with 33,628 votes. In comparison, Republican candidate Jon Rygiewicz received 6,877 votes. The district is located in central Madison, and is among the most Democratic-leaning in the state.
All 6,877 votes for Rygiewicz would be considered “wasted” for District 76 because they didn’t produce a win. In addition, since Taylor only needed 20,253 votes in that election to win the district, the remaining 13,375 votes she received were wasted too. That is to say, Taylor would have still won if all those votes had been cast for her opponent. In District 76, even though Taylor won, there were a lot more Democratic votes wasted than Republican votes — 6,498 more votes, to be exact.
To calculate the efficiency gap for a state as a whole, the wasted votes are added up across all districts to find how many wasted votes there were by party statewide. For whichever party wasted more votes, their total wasted votes is then divided by the total number of votes cast statewide, giving the percent of all votes wasted by party. That figure is considered the efficiency gap. A proposed standard is that an efficiency gap of about 8 percent or more is evidence of purposeful manipulation of the districts. Based on 2016 election results for the Assembly, Wisconsin’s efficiency gap was calculated to be 10 percent in the 2016 fall general election, favoring the GOP. This is a substantially larger efficiency gap compared to analysis of pre-2011 elections.
The efficiency gap is often also compared to the Assembly’s partisan mix. After the 2016 elections, Republicans held 64 out of 99 seats, or 65 percent of the total. Republican candidates received 52 percent of the vote in contested races, though.
Another way to look at this difference is to note that with an efficiency gap of zero, based on how the votes were cast alone, Republican candidates would have been expected to win about 52 seats in the Assembly. In the actual election, though, Republicans were able to pick up 12 more seats. However, equal levels of wasted votes between two parties is an unrealistic standard — in any election, of course some votes will be cast for candidates who lose. The question among researchers who are trying to quantify gerrymandering is identifying an imbalance in the number of wasted votes by one party or the other.
The efficiency gap is a measure that can only be calculated for balance of power in a legislature as a whole. It cannot be calculated for any individual district. So although the 2016 election results for Wisconsin Assembly District 76 are public record, it doesn’t make sense to ask what is the efficiency gap for that specific district, or any other. The efficiency gap is a measure of the sum of many parts.
The future of the efficiency gap metric
The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision stated that the plaintiffs must show dilution of their votes — that is, the harm they’re alleging — that is district-specific.
“An individual voter in Wisconsin is placed in a single district,” wrote Chief Justice John Roberts. “He votes for a single representative. The boundaries of the district, and the composition of its voters, determine whether and to what extent a particular voter is packed or cracked. A plaintiff who complains of gerrymandering, but who does not live in a gerrymandered district, ‘assert[s] only a generalized grievance against governmental conduct of which he or she does not approve.’ United States v. Hays, 515 U. S. 737, 745.”
In his decision, Roberts specifically called out lead plaintiff William Whitford as an example of how the majority found that legal standing had not been sufficiently established.
Whitford lives in District 76 in Madison — a district that leans so Democratic that “under any plausible circumstances,” it would be represented by an Assemblyperson from that party. In essence, Roberts wrote that it wouldn’t matter if the districts were drawn differently, as the outcome in that district would be the same and therefore Whitford did not have a personal stake in the outcome of the case. In other words, Whitford could not have been personally harmed in terms of dilution of his vote by the way his own district was drawn.
The Court rejected arguments that a gap between a statewide Democratic majority among voters and a Republican majority of state Assembly representatives could be interpreted as specific, personal injury to a Democratic voter who was represented by a Democratic legislator in a heavily Democratic district.
The fact that the Court’s decision was based on standing indicates that the justices did not accept that gerrymandering is a process that occurs simultaneously in all districts, but is rather exhibited in each district individually. By implication, that line of thinking suggests that they did not accept arguments that the efficiency gap can measure partisan gerrymandering.
However, to state that living in a packed district and having been affected by partisan gerrymandering are inconsistent with one another ignores the fact that every acre of Wisconsin must be located in one and only one Assembly district, as well as the fact that the 99 districts of the chamber are drawn simultaneously in a single process. Districts are not drawn independently of one another, and do not exist independent of one another. Indeed, cracking and packing are achieved by creating a particular dynamic between districts.
In short, partisan gerrymandering is by definition something that happens between districts, not within individual districts. The court’s decision suggests they needed additional evidence that a district map could harm all voters in the state for a particular party, and not just those whose candidates lost their races.
If the Court thought standing could not be established, they would have decided to dismiss the case instead of remanding it, which was the opinion of dissenting Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch. However, Justice Anthony Kennedy‘s vote was considered pivotal in all recent rulings on gerrymandering, including this case — his retirement could affect the balance of power in Court and will affect future decisions on this case.
Meanwhile, the 2020 U.S. Census will refresh the total population count, and shortly thereafter the usual decennial redistricting process will take place. Unless there is a dramatic change in the state laws governing the redistricting process before that point, new Wisconsin Legislature district maps will be drafted and passed into law like any other state legislation. They require a majority vote from the Assembly and state Senate, and the signature of the governor. Meanwhile, rapidly emerging computing and data advances are making it easier and more accessible to predict how voters will behave at the polls — putting the tools to achieve gerrymandering at the fingertips of those who draw the maps.
What’s Next For The Math At The Heart Of Wisconsin’s Redistricting Lawsuit was originally published on WisContext which produced the article in a partnership between Wisconsin Public Radio, Wisconsin Public Television and Cooperative Extension.
More about the Gerrymandering of Legislative Districts
- Democrats Refile Redistricting Suit - Shawn Johnson - Sep 16th, 2018
- Amended Whitford Complaint Highlights Harm Caused by Wisconsin’s Partisan Gerrymander to 40 Plaintiffs Across 34 Districts - Campaign Legal Center - Sep 14th, 2018
- The State of Wasted Votes - Malia Jones - Jul 2nd, 2018
- Data Wonk: Can Democrats Still Contest Gerrymander? - Bruce Thompson - Jun 27th, 2018
- The State of Politics: Democrats Rejected Redistricting Reform - Steven Walters - Jun 25th, 2018
- Supreme Court Punts on Gerrymandering - Shawn Johnson - Jun 18th, 2018
- Republican State Leadership Committee: The Efficiency Gap is “Sociological Gobbledygook” - Republican State Leadership Committee - Jun 18th, 2018
- Response to Gill v Whitford decision to remand back to trial court - Fair Elections Project - Jun 18th, 2018
- The Art Of Gerrymandering Milwaukee - Malia Jones - Jun 9th, 2018
- The Push for Nonpartisan Redistricting - Cathleen Draper - Jun 5th, 2018
- U.S. Supreme Court Nears Decision on Wisconsin Redistricting Case - Cathleen Draper - Jun 2nd, 2018
- Data Wonk: Many Republicans Oppose Gerrymandering - Bruce Thompson - Mar 14th, 2018
- The State of Politics: Will U.S. Supremes Rule on State Districts? - Steven Walters - Feb 19th, 2018
- Back in the News: Majority Now Backs Fair Redistricting - Bruce Murphy - Feb 5th, 2018
- Data Wonk: John Roberts’ Nightmare - Bruce Thompson - Oct 11th, 2017
- The State of Politics: You Be The Judge on Redistricting - Steven Walters - Oct 2nd, 2017
- Op Ed: U.S. Supreme Court Should End Partisan Gerrymandering - Andrea Kaminski - Sep 26th, 2017
- Data Wonk: Judges Consider a Democratic Gerrymander - Bruce Thompson - Aug 30th, 2017
- Op Ed: 24 Counties Have Voted for Fair Maps - Matt Rothschild - Aug 25th, 2017
- Data Wonk: Right Wing Seeks to End Democracy? - Bruce Thompson - Aug 23rd, 2017
- Data Wonk: US Supreme Court Wrong on Redistricting? - Bruce Thompson - May 31st, 2017
- Op Ed: Save Taxes With Nonpartisan Redistricting - Andrea Kaminski and Lindsay Dorff - May 26th, 2017
- Data Wonk: Why GOP Backs Gerrymander - Bruce Thompson - May 24th, 2017
- Data Wonk: State’s Political Map At Issue - Bruce Thompson - May 18th, 2017
- Rep. Peter Barca Statement on Attorney General Appeal of Redistricting Decision - State Rep. Peter Barca - Feb 24th, 2017
- Fair Elections Project calls upon Legislature to focus on fair map drawing process - Wisconsin Fair Elections Project - Feb 24th, 2017
- Campaign Cash: GOP’s Redistricting Lawyers Are Big Donors - Matt Rothschild - Feb 6th, 2017
- Op Ed: Reject Partisanship, Redraw Voting Maps - Andrea Kaminski - Feb 3rd, 2017
- Rep. Peter Barca Statement on Assembly Organization Committee Secret Ballot - State Rep. Peter Barca - Feb 2nd, 2017
- Court Watch: Court’s Redistricting Order A Problem? - Bruce Thompson - Feb 1st, 2017
- Rep. Hesselbein Calls for Open, Transparent, and Public Process for Drawing New Legislative Lines - State Rep. Dianne Hesselbein - Jan 27th, 2017
- Wisconsin Federal Court Permanently Blocks State Redistricting Plan - Wisconsin Fair Elections Project - Jan 27th, 2017
- Data Wonk: 2016 Election Results Prove Gerrymandering - Bruce Thompson - Dec 28th, 2016
- Plaintiffs call for new maps for Wisconsin legislative district - Wisconsin Fair Elections Project - Dec 21st, 2016
- Data Wonk: Measuring Wisconsin’s Gerrymandering - Bruce Thompson - Dec 7th, 2016
- Sen. Taylor statement on federal court ruling against Republican gerrymandering - State Sen. Lena Taylor - Nov 21st, 2016
- Statement on Redistricting Ruling - State Sen. Chris Larson - Nov 21st, 2016
- Federal Court overturns unconstitutional gerrymandering of Wisconsin legislative districts - Wisconsin Fair Elections Project - Nov 21st, 2016
- Rep. Barca Statement on Redistricting Decision - State Rep. Peter Barca - Nov 21st, 2016
- HISTORIC DECISION: Wisconsin Federal Court Strikes Down Partisan Gerrymander and Adopts Groundbreaking Legal Standard - Campaign Legal Center - Nov 21st, 2016
- Murphy’s Law: The Myth of Democratic Gerrymandering - Bruce Murphy - Jan 26th, 2016
- Data Wonk: Can New Approach End Gerrymandering? - Bruce Thompson - Jan 6th, 2016
- Federal Lawsuit to Overturn Unconstitutional Gerrymandering of Wisconsin Legislative Districts Continues - Wisconsin Fair Elections Project - Dec 17th, 2015
- Can Auto Redistricting End Gerrymandering? - Laura Thompson - Dec 10th, 2015
- Assembly candidate Brostoff calls for non-partisan redistricting - State Rep. Jonathan Brostoff - Apr 17th, 2014
- Redistricting reform the antidote to Republican extremism - Press Release - Nov 13th, 2013
- Lazich, August, Fitzgerald and Vos Still Silent on Redistricting Reform Public Hearings As Support & Pressure Builds - Common Cause in Wisconsin - Sep 17th, 2013
- Freshmen legislators push new legislation to correct flawed partisan redistricting process - Press Release - Apr 11th, 2013