Walker’s Reelection Now A Certainty
Foxconn deal would make him a 10 point favorite if Las Vegas offered odds.
Governor Walker’s three statewide election victories were by margins of 5, 7, and 5 percentage points.
Prior to the Foxconn deal a reasonable forecast for 2018 would have been for another victory in that range. Despite the empty Democratic bench, and the absence of any clear agenda, a hardcore retains a strong dislike of the Governor. In my opinion that would limit any talk of landslide re-elect numbers for Walker.
Foxconn obviously changes the outlook. If Las Vegas were to take bets the opening line now would be -10, meaning Walker is a 10-point favorite to win. That would be the number likely to get enough bets on both sides that bookmakers could make their desired commission profit.
Could Walker approach Tommy Thompson landslide numbers from his last three elections (+16, +37, +21)? The answer depends on whether Wisconsin Democrats can descend to an even lower level of ineptness.
A factor helping Dems next year is the unity they will have in support of Tammy Baldwin. That will help in turnout, something that otherwise could be dampened if their candidate for Governor is weak.
And then of course there is the wild card of all times: Donald Trump. It is impossible to predict what might occur in the next year on the national level that could re-align the Wisconsin electorate, one that voted for him (and Ron Johnson) just nine months ago.
The Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert has chronicled Wisconsin’s sharp partisan divisions, perhaps the greatest among the fifty states. That was not the case in the Thompson years, a factor that keeps Walker safely in the re-elect column but not yet approaching serious landslide speculation.
- Murphy’s Law: Local Costs for Foxconn Cut By 2% - Bruce Murphy - Feb 8th, 2021
- Foxconn Sued for Breach of Contract - Corri Hess - Feb 4th, 2021
- Vos and Wanggaard Continue to Gaslight Public on Foxconn Development - A Better Mt. Pleasant - Feb 3rd, 2021
- Murphy’s Law: Robin Vos Will Solve Foxconn Fiasco - Bruce Murphy - Feb 2nd, 2021
- Murphy’s Law: 9 Reasons a New Foxconn Contract Is Unlikely - Bruce Murphy - Dec 21st, 2020
- Audit Says Foxconn Loophole Needs a Fix - Corri Hess - Dec 9th, 2020
- Back in the News: Residents Outraged by Foxconn Fiasco - Bruce Murphy - Dec 8th, 2020
- Back in the News: Foxconn Landing Google Contract? - Bruce Murphy - Nov 23rd, 2020
- Op Ed: Mistake? Foxconn Was a Whopper - John Torinus - Oct 30th, 2020
- Murphy’s Law: What Foxconn Will Cost Taxpayers - Bruce Murphy - Oct 28th, 2020
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