Walker’s Reelection Now A Certainty
Foxconn deal would make him a 10 point favorite if Las Vegas offered odds.
Governor Walker’s three statewide election victories were by margins of 5, 7, and 5 percentage points.
Prior to the Foxconn deal a reasonable forecast for 2018 would have been for another victory in that range. Despite the empty Democratic bench, and the absence of any clear agenda, a hardcore retains a strong dislike of the Governor. In my opinion that would limit any talk of landslide re-elect numbers for Walker.
Foxconn obviously changes the outlook. If Las Vegas were to take bets the opening line now would be -10, meaning Walker is a 10-point favorite to win. That would be the number likely to get enough bets on both sides that bookmakers could make their desired commission profit.
Could Walker approach Tommy Thompson landslide numbers from his last three elections (+16, +37, +21)? The answer depends on whether Wisconsin Democrats can descend to an even lower level of ineptness.
A factor helping Dems next year is the unity they will have in support of Tammy Baldwin. That will help in turnout, something that otherwise could be dampened if their candidate for Governor is weak.
And then of course there is the wild card of all times: Donald Trump. It is impossible to predict what might occur in the next year on the national level that could re-align the Wisconsin electorate, one that voted for him (and Ron Johnson) just nine months ago.
The Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert has chronicled Wisconsin’s sharp partisan divisions, perhaps the greatest among the fifty states. That was not the case in the Thompson years, a factor that keeps Walker safely in the re-elect column but not yet approaching serious landslide speculation.
- State Reviewing Foxconn Jobs Report - Erik Gunn - Jul 23rd, 2020
- Foxconn Hosts Smart Manufacturing Web Conference, Launches iAI Institute - Foxconn Technology Group - Jul 10th, 2020
- Foxconn Will Make 10K Ventilators - Corri Hess - Jun 19th, 2020
- Medtronic and Foxconn Partner to Increase Ventilator Production - Foxconn Technology Group - Jun 18th, 2020
- Foxconn Audit Delayed Two Months - Erik Gunn - Jun 3rd, 2020
- Back in the News: Foxconn’s Profits Plunge By 90% - Bruce Murphy - May 19th, 2020
- Foxconn to Assemble Procedural Masks in Wisconsin for Pandemic Relief - Foxconn Technology Group - Apr 20th, 2020
- Murphy’s Law: Foxconn Squeezes Evers - Bruce Murphy - Apr 15th, 2020
- Foxconn Says It Earned Tax Credits - Corri Hess - Apr 9th, 2020
- Back in the News: Foxconn Plant Will Make Ventilators - Bruce Murphy - Apr 8th, 2020
Read more about Foxconn Facility here