Walker’s Reelection Now A Certainty
Foxconn deal would make him a 10 point favorite if Las Vegas offered odds.
Governor Walker’s three statewide election victories were by margins of 5, 7, and 5 percentage points.
Prior to the Foxconn deal a reasonable forecast for 2018 would have been for another victory in that range. Despite the empty Democratic bench, and the absence of any clear agenda, a hardcore retains a strong dislike of the Governor. In my opinion that would limit any talk of landslide re-elect numbers for Walker.
Foxconn obviously changes the outlook. If Las Vegas were to take bets the opening line now would be -10, meaning Walker is a 10-point favorite to win. That would be the number likely to get enough bets on both sides that bookmakers could make their desired commission profit.
Could Walker approach Tommy Thompson landslide numbers from his last three elections (+16, +37, +21)? The answer depends on whether Wisconsin Democrats can descend to an even lower level of ineptness.
A factor helping Dems next year is the unity they will have in support of Tammy Baldwin. That will help in turnout, something that otherwise could be dampened if their candidate for Governor is weak.
And then of course there is the wild card of all times: Donald Trump. It is impossible to predict what might occur in the next year on the national level that could re-align the Wisconsin electorate, one that voted for him (and Ron Johnson) just nine months ago.
The Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert has chronicled Wisconsin’s sharp partisan divisions, perhaps the greatest among the fifty states. That was not the case in the Thompson years, a factor that keeps Walker safely in the re-elect column but not yet approaching serious landslide speculation.
More about the Foxconn Facility
- The State of Politics: Foxconn Biggest Deal in State History - Steven Walters - Aug 21st, 2017
- Statewide Online Tool Assists Wisconsin Companies Seeking to Do Business with Foxconn - Gov. Scott Walker - Aug 21st, 2017
- The Senate Must be The Grownups in the Room… Again. - State Sen. Tim Carpenter - Aug 21st, 2017
- Op Ed: The Many Broken Promises of Foxconn - State Rep. David Bowen - Aug 20th, 2017
- Rep. Goyke Statement on Foxconn Special Session Bill - State Rep. Evan Goyke - Aug 18th, 2017
- Wisconsin Budget: Foxconn Could Take Till 2058 To Pay Off - Jon Peacock - Aug 18th, 2017
- Governor Walker Releases Statement on Bipartisan Assembly Passage of Wisconn Valley Special Session Legislation - Gov. Scott Walker - Aug 18th, 2017
- Republican Agenda Puts Corporate Welfare Package for Taiwanese Company Ahead of our Public Schools - State Rep. Dianne Hesselbein - Aug 17th, 2017
- Rep. Sinicki Votes No on Foxconn Package - State Rep. Christine Sinicki - Aug 17th, 2017
- Statement from Rep. Barca on the Assembly Passage of Foxconn Bill - State Rep. Peter Barca - Aug 17th, 2017
- Facts on Foxconn Trump Proponents’ Protestations Deal Would Benefit Wisconsin - One Wisconsin Now - Aug 17th, 2017
- Foxconn Debate Cheat Sheet - State Rep. Gordon Hintz - Aug 17th, 2017
- $3 Billion Foxconn Boondoggle Sells Out Wisconsin’s Future to Foreign Corporation - State Rep. Lisa Subeck - Aug 17th, 2017
- Op Ed: How to Get a Better Deal From Foxconn - John Torinus - Aug 17th, 2017
- Data Wonk: Will Foxconn Deal Fight Poverty? - Bruce Thompson - Aug 16th, 2017
- Governor Walker Moderates Foxconn Roundtable Discussion in Green Bay - Gov. Scott Walker - Aug 16th, 2017
- Op Ed: Where Will Foxconn Find Workers? - State Rep. Gordon Hintz - Aug 16th, 2017
- Vukmir: The time is now for Foxconn - Assistant Majority Leader Leah Vukmir - Aug 15th, 2017
- Foxconn tax break could exceed $1 million per job - State Sen. Jennifer Shilling - Aug 14th, 2017
- Paul Ryan Challenger Opposes $3 Billion Corporate Handout to Foxconn - Cathy Myers - Aug 14th, 2017
- The State of Politics: 10 Tough Questions About Foxconn Deal - Steven Walters - Aug 14th, 2017
- Campaign Cash: Did Foxconn Lobby Illegally? - Wisconsin Democracy Campaign - Aug 12th, 2017
- Statement from Rep. Barca Regarding Republican Amendment to Foxconn Bill - State Rep. Peter Barca - Aug 11th, 2017
- Statement: Amendment to Special Session Assembly Bill 1 - Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos - Aug 11th, 2017
- Op Ed: Renegotiate the Foxconn Deal - Matthew Flynn - Aug 11th, 2017
- Murphy’s Law: Walker’s Desperate Deal With Foxconn - Bruce Murphy - Aug 10th, 2017
- Foxconn Deal Flounders in State Legislature - One Wisconsin Now - Aug 10th, 2017
- If ‘Ifs’ and ‘Buts’ Are Candies and Nuts We’ll Have Foxconn Deal Paid Off in 2043 - One Wisconsin Now - Aug 9th, 2017
- Rep. Shankland: Statement on Foxconn Analysis - State Rep. Katrina Shankland - Aug 8th, 2017
- Foxconn Fiscal Analysis Deeply Troubling for Wisconsin Taxpayers - State Rep. David Crowley - Aug 8th, 2017
- Statement from Rep. Barca on New Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Foxconn Deal - State Rep. Peter Barca - Aug 8th, 2017
- Rep. Hintz Statement on Foxconn Cost to Taxpayers - State Rep. Gordon Hintz - Aug 8th, 2017
- Campaign Cash: Bill Has $10 Million Giveaway to Fiserv - Wisconsin Democracy Campaign - Aug 8th, 2017
- Wisconsin Veterans Chamber of Commerce Calls For Foxconn Project to Include Disabled Veteran Owned Businesses - Wisconsin Veterans Chamber of Commerce - Aug 7th, 2017
- Wisconsin Budget: The High Cost of Foxconn - Jon Peacock - Aug 4th, 2017
- What Does the Foxconn CEO Say About His Employees? - One Wisconsin Now - Aug 4th, 2017
- Foxconn Hearing: Big Promises, Little Details, Lacks Transportation Plan - State Rep. David Crowley - Aug 3rd, 2017
- One Wisconsin Now Testimony on Foxconn Subsidy Legislation - One Wisconsin Now - Aug 3rd, 2017
- No Guarantees to Prevent Wisconsin Tax Dollars From Subsidizing Illinois Jobs in Foxconn Deal - One Wisconsin Now - Aug 2nd, 2017
- Unnecessary to Sacrifice Natural Resources for Foxconn - Wisconsin League of Conservation Voters - Jul 31st, 2017
- Statement from Rep. Barca on Foxconn Developments - State Rep. Peter Barca - Jul 28th, 2017
- The Contrarian: Walker’s Reelection Now A Certainty - George Mitchell - Jul 28th, 2017
- Eyes on Milwaukee: Foxconn Loves Wisconsin, Walker - Jeramey Jannene - Jul 27th, 2017
- Governor Walker, Foxconn Founder and CEO Terry Gou Sign Memorandum of Understanding in Milwaukee - Gov. Scott Walker - Jul 27th, 2017
- REALTORS® Welcome Foxconn - Greater Milwaukee Association of REALTORS® - Jul 27th, 2017
- MATC Statement on Foxconn - Milwaukee Area Technical College - Jul 26th, 2017
- Statement from Rep. Barca on Foxconn Economic Development Announcement - State Rep. Peter Barca - Jul 26th, 2017
- Milwaukee County Executive Chris Abele Statement on Foxconn Announcement - County Executive Chris Abele - Jul 26th, 2017
- Global High-Tech Manufacturer Foxconn Announces $10 Billion Investment, Will Create 13,000 Jobs in New Wisconsin Campus - Gov. Scott Walker - Jul 26th, 2017
- Foxconn Frenzy: Proceed with Caution - State Sen. Chris Larson - Jul 26th, 2017
- Shilling cautious on Foxconn announcement - State Sen. Jennifer Shilling - Jul 26th, 2017
- Op Ed: Loss of Talgo Train Hurts Foxconn Deal - James Rowen - Jul 20th, 2017
- Mayor Barrett Supports Siting Foxconn Facility in Southeastern Wisconsin - Mayor Tom Barrett - Jul 17th, 2017
- On the Air: How Likely Is It Foxconn Will Create 10,000 Jobs? - Urban Milwaukee - Jul 13th, 2017
- Murphy’s Law: Walker Building Yesterday’s Economy - Bruce Murphy - Jul 13th, 2017
- Eyes on Milwaukee: Foxconn Lands in Milwaukee - Jeramey Jannene - Jul 10th, 2017