Small Set of Counties Could Pick Democratic Candidate for Governor

Wisconsin State Capitol. Photo by Dave Reid.

It was a poll of registered voters, but it suggests what major gains Democratic candidates for governor must make to win the party’s nomination in the Aug. 17 primary — only six months away. The November election will be the first vote for a governor with no incumbent since 2010.

In November 2022, votes for governor in only 11 counties — and four regions of the state — made up 54% of the statewide vote total of 2.65 million. Fine-print details of the October 2025 Marquette University Law School poll show how little-known six of the eight Democratic candidates for governor were to voters in those four regions.

Two disclosures: First, the Oct. 15-22 poll was conducted before two more Milwaukee County Democrats — former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and former state Administration Secretary Joel Brennan — announced their runs for governor. Barnes announced on Dec. 2; Brennan, Dec. 12. And it was conducted before Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann dropped out as a Republican candidate, leaving 7th District U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor in November.

Still, even with those caveats, the low October name ID numbers of the six Democrats in those four regions of the state are notable.

Voters in five metropolitan Milwaukee counties (Milwaukee, Waukesha, Racine, Washington and Ozaukee) cast a total of 779,416 votes for governor, or 29% of the statewide total in 2022.

The October Marquette poll estimated these name IDs for the six Democrats in metropolitan Milwaukee: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, 42%; Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, of Waukesha, 31%; state Rep. Francesca Hong, 27%; Missy Hughes, former CEO of the state Economic Development Corp.; and state Sen. Kelda Roys, both 20%; and former state Rep. Brett Hulsey, 19%. Hong, Roys and Hulsey are from Madison.

Neither Crowley nor Rodriguez was known by more than 50% of their neighbors in Wisconsin’s largest metropolitan area.

Dane County voters cast 301,033 votes for governor four years ago, or 11.3% of the statewide total. The fall Marquette University poll of Dane County voters found that none of the six Democrats had name IDs higher than 30%: Rodriguez was at 29%; Hong, 28%; Roys, 25%; Crowley and Hulsey, both 20%; and Hughes, 16%.

Voters in the northeast Wisconsin counties of Brown and Outagamie cast 200,307 votes for governor in 2022, 7.5% of the statewide total. The Marquette poll of registered voters in that region found that none of the six Democrats had name IDs of more than 20%: Rodriguez, 17%; Hong, 13%; Crowley, 12%; Hulsey and Roys, 10%; and Hughes, 9%.

Finally, the Marquette poll surveyed voters in northern and western Wisconsin. Voters in three of those counties — Marathon, La Crosse and Eau Claire — cast a total of 165,400 votes four years ago, or 6.1% of the statewide total.

Marquette’s survey found that none of the six Democrats had name identification IDs of more than 20% in that region: Crowley, Hong and Rodriguez, 17% each; Hughes, who is from Vernon County, 12%; Hulsey, 10%; and Roys, 9%.

Brennan and Barnes announced that they would also seek the Democratic nomination after the October poll suggested how open the race was for the party’s nomination. Barnes was the party’s November 2022 nominee for Senate, getting 48% of the vote against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. A spokesman for Barnes’ campaign for governor said other polls have identified him as the best known Democratic candidate, giving him an advantage in the six-month race to win the primary.

Only Democratic voters will decide who wins the Aug. 17 primary for governor. In the 10-candidate Democratic primary for governor in 2018, 48% of the statewide vote was cast in just four counties — Milwaukee, 21%; Dane, 19%; Waukesha, 5.1%; and Brown, 3.1%.

And in the November 2022 election that gave Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Rodriguez second terms, they won only three of the 11 counties — Milwaukee, Dane and La Crosse — of the four regions surveyed in the Marquette poll. In all, they won just 16 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties. Nowadays Wisconsin’s Democrats tend to be concentrated in urban areas, yet statewide elections are typically decided by independent voters.

Although Tiffany’s endorsement by President Donald Trump forced Schoemann out of the race, Marquette’s October poll also showed weakness in the statewide name ID of the Oneida County Republican.

Of registered voters surveyed in the four regions of the state, Tiffany’s name ID was 60% in northern and western Wisconsin, which he has represented in Congress since May 2020. But his name ID was 36% in Dane County; 37% in metropolitan Milwaukee, and 27% in the Green Bay area.

Lots of numbers. What do they all mean? The winner of the Democratic primary will almost certainly have to have a strong base in either metro Milwaukee or Dane County, and preferably both. And they need to do it quickly, with just six months before the August primary election. Tiffany, meanwhile, has until November to make himself and his issues known in the state’s urban areas.

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwaltrs@gmail.com