GOP Losses Will Test Vos, LeMahieu

Robin Vos and Devin LeMahieu

The cat-herding skills of the Capitol’s two top Republicans – Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos – will be tested in new ways since voters trimmed the numbers of Republicans in their caucuses on Nov. 5.

The two-thirds majority Senate Republicans had was whittled down to an 18-14 margin in the November election and will take effect when the next legislative session begins in January. Assembly Republicans went from being two seats away from a two-thirds majority to having a 55-44 edge, after Democrats won 10 more seats.

Here’s why LeMahieu and Vos face new challenges:

Last session, each could see – or even allow – a few of their members to defect and vote no on major bills, since Republican priorities would still pass with more than enough votes.

Next session, each leader will have to know exactly how each of their members will vote, since no votes from only two of the 18 Senate Republicans, and six of the 55 Assembly Republicans, would kill a bill if no Democrats vote for it. Passing a bill requires 17 Senate and 50 Assembly votes.

Those scenarios give an old Capitol leaders’ axiom – “Only go to the floor if you have the votes” – new relevance.

Of the two Republican leaders, Vos has the most experience cobbling Assembly GOP majorities together. He’s Wisconsin’s longest-serving Assembly speaker, having held that position since 2013, has been in the Assembly since 2005 and been part of GOP control of that chamber since 2011.

One veteran lobbyist, reflecting on the Nov. 5 changes in the Legislature, called Vos a “master” of Capitol politics.

LeMahieu joined the Senate in 2014 and was elected majority leader in 2021. He may have the biggest challenge, since no votes from only two Senate Republicans would keep a GOP priority, or even the next budget, from passing.

Two of LeMahieu’s colleagues – former Senate President Chris Kapenga and Steven Nass – could pose challenges for LeMahieu. Kapenga dropped his bid to be re-elected Senate president in the wake of a challenge from Sen. Mary Felzkowski, who LeMahieu appointed to the Joint Finance Committee (JFC). And Nass has often voted against his party’s programs, including past state budgets shaped by Joint Finance Republicans.

LeMahieu’s next chance to make friends or enemies in his caucus will be when he replaces three of the six Senate Republicans on the Finance Committee, which is expected to again rework the 2025-27 budget that Democratic Gov. Tony Evers submits early next year.

Two Senate Republicans who served on the Finance Committee – Duey Stroebel and Joan Ballweg – lost their re-election bids. Felzkowski was a JFC member but, as Senate president, won’t return to the committee.

Felzkowski may be the biggest winner in the post-Nov. 5 realignment of Senate Republicans. She not only won a new four-year term, getting 67% of the vote in her northern Wisconsin district, but will be the Capitol’s top woman Republican leader as Senate president. LeMahieu, Kapenga and Nass will be up for re-election in 2026 under the new maps that have helped more Democrats get elected.

As Senate president, Felzkowski has new power to push priorities like new transparency in hospital pricing and the legalization of medical marijuana. Felzkowski is a cancer survivor who says medical marijuana can offer relief to the critically ill, but she opposed an Assembly-crafted plan to legalize it last session.

Of the six Assembly Republicans who served on the Finance Committee last session, Vos is expected to make one new appointment. He must replace Rep. Terry Katsma, who did not run again.

Vos will be helped by the return of three former Republicans he served with before – Robin Kreibich, Dean Kaufert and Dan Knodl, who defeated Vos’s chief caucus opponent, Rep. Janel Brandtjen, in an August primary.

In a statement Friday, Vos outlined his goals for the next session: “I will fight for our priorities that include a historic middle class tax cut and making retirement tax-free for our seniors. I also plan to introduce a constitutional amendment to protect voter ID in Wisconsin and fight to protect women’s sports and keep biological males out of women’s bathrooms and locker rooms.”

In his post-election statement, Evers vowed to again advocate for issues opposed by Republicans: “I will always fight to protect our LGBTQ families and kids, especially our trans and nonbinary kids. I will always fight for women, access to affordable healthcare, and reproductive freedom. I will always fight to reverse the climate crisis and to leave our kids and grandkids with a more sustainable, better world.”
Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com