Will Trump Protect Social Security and Medicare?

A recent flyer mailed out by the Republican Party of Wisconsin aims to reassure voters that Donald Trump would protect Social Security and Medicare—and that Democrat Kamala Harris would “destroy” the two programs. It also illustrates the difficulties that Trump and his MAGA campaign have in developing a consistent message.

The flyer takes the form of a two-sided card. Each side is devoted to one of these two propositions.

The side devoted to attacking Harris starts by describing her as “FAILED, WEAK. DANGEROUSLY LIBERAL,” and accuses her of “DESTROYING SOCIAL SECURITY & MEDICARE.” (The caps are in the original.) As evidence, the card makes three arguments.

The first argument is based on a headline from CNN: “US announces big hike in Medicare premiums.” The card does not give the date of the headline, leaving the impression that the “big hike” is scheduled for 2025. In reality, it was published on November 13, 2021, nearly three years ago. The article quotes government officials as attributing the hike to the pandemic which caused a decrease in economic activity resulting in lower tax revenue. Also blamed was uncertainty over the pricey and controversial Alzheimer’s drug Aducanumab (which has since been discontinued by its manufacturer).

The second argument referred to an article in the July 4, 2024, Michigan Independent that reported that Harris had cast more tie-breaking votes in the Senate than any vice president in US history, blaming her for the subsequent inflation. But officials also noted that for most Social Security recipients the impact would be negligible because they would be receiving a substantial cost of living increase in their payments.

The third argument is the most interesting. It refers to a 2021 study from the anti-immigration Center for Immigration Studies in opposition to amnesty for undocumented immigrants. The study pointed out that “under current law, illegal immigrants are net contributors to Social Security and Medicare.” That is, undocumented immigrants pay Social Security and Medicare taxes but cannot legally receive benefits. Amnesty would transform illegal immigrants from net contributors into net beneficiaries. The study concluded that granting them amnesty, thereby making them eligible for Social Security and Medicare, would cost the two programs roughly $1.3 trillion in present value.

The second side of the card claims that Trump is in favor of “PROTECTING SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE.” (Again, the caps are in the original.) It points out that protecting Social Security and Medicare is Policy #14 of Trump’s 20 Promises to America.

It’s worth noting that when Trump was president, his administration’s budget proposals included spending cuts to Social Security and Medicare, as CNN has reported. Trump has also made other seemingly unrelated campaign promises this year that could impact Social Security and Medicare.

Specifically, Trump’s Promises 1 and 2 claim he would:

1. Strengthen Border Controls: Implement comprehensive measures to secure the border and manage immigration effectively.
2.  Launch Major Deportation Initiatives: Undertake an extensive deportation campaign.

Assuming he would be successful in this—a questionable conclusion—this would have the effect of eliminating the $1.3 trillion subsidy that undocumented immigrants make to Social Security and Medicare, while exacerbating the current labor shortage caused by the aging of the American population. Plus, it would create enormous cruelty to people who are here looking for a better life.

Among Trump’s 20 promises are a number that would either increase government costs or reduce government revenues. The Wisconsin Republican Party’s card adds another: “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security!”

Traditionally, the reason that Republican politicians targeted Social Security and Medicare is that they cost a lot of money. Missing from the list of 20 promises is any mention of how these proposals would be funded.

Lacking that, Trump’s so-called Platform must be regarded as a hodgepodge of unconnected things chosen in the expectation that they appeal to one or another group of voters.