New Poll Shows Tight Crowley–Tiffany Race For Governor
Crowley leads by four points, but margin of error suggests another nail-biter statewide contest ahead.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (left) and U.S. Rep Tom Tiffany (right). Angela Major/WPR
A new poll of likely Wisconsin voters shows Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the Democratic nominee for governor, with a four percentage point lead over Republican nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, with a wider lead among independents.
Platform Communications, founded by Republican strategist Keith Gilkes, surveyed 500 likely general election voters on August 12 and 13, following Crowley’s surprising primary defeat of democratic socialist Francesca Hong. The poll was conducted by Gilkes, Platform’s executive chairman, and Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork.
Gilkes was former Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s chief political advisor, and Bjork has done work for Democrats including former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
The Badger Battleground poll results show that among all respondents, 48 percent said they would vote for Democrat Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, while 44 percent said they’d vote for Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany.
Crowley’s margin improved among those identifying as independents, with 42 percent choosing Crowley and 30 percent choosing Tiffany. Overall Crowley had the strongest support from Democrats and those with college degrees. Tiffany’s strongest showing came from Republicans and those with less than a college degree.
Platform Communications CEO Brian Reisinger, who ran communications for Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson’s 2016 campaign and Walker’s 2018 campaign, says with the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the findings suggest Wisconsin could be in for another nail-biter election.
“What we’re seeing here is a very tight general election matchup,” said Reisinger. “We’re seeing David Crowley coming out with a modest lead here at the beginning, which makes sense because he’s coming out of the primary victory where he’s getting a little bit of a bounce, and we’re seeing Tom Tiffany in a very very tight race with Crowley because this is an evenly divided state, and Tom Tiffany’s been running full steam.”
Crowley was also viewed more favorably than Tiffany among all respondents. The survey showed 43 percent reported favorable views of him, while 26 percent saw him unfavorably. Tiffany’s figures were underwater, with 43 percent of respondents saying they had an unfavorable view of the Republican and 38 percent having a favorable view.
Among independents, both men’s favorability ratings declined, though Crowley was still in net-positive territory, while Tiffany’s net-negative rating was three times worse than it was among all respondents.
Reisinger said a challenge for Crowley moving forward will be defining himself before Republicans do. And while Tiffany is more well known, he said, it’s partially due to attack ads from Democrats, which plays into his lower favorability rating.
A day after Crowley’s primary win, Tiffany’s campaign and the Democratic Governors Association announced dueling “seven-figure” ad campaigns. Tiffany’s attack ad labels Crowley as a “failed executive” and the DGA’s attack ad calls Tiffany a “pandering politician” hiding his “MAGA agenda.
Platform’s survey also asked voters which party they prefer in a generic Wisconsin Assembly ballot. Among all voters, 47 percent chose Democrats, while 44 percent chose Republicans. Among independents, 41 percent said they favor Democrats in a generic Assembly race and 32 percent favored Republicans.
Reisinger said the generic assembly ballot findings are a sign of the overall midterm environment, which historically favors the party not in the White House.
“So, what’s going on in the legislature? It’s going to be impacted by the top of the ticket with the governor’s race, it’s going to be impacted by what’s going on inside those districts, but it’s also, in a big way, going to be impacted by those national winds that are blowing,” said Reisinger.
An analysis by Marquette University Law School researcher John Johnson suggests the Assembly leans Republican ahead of the November election, but three tossup races in the 88th, 61st and 51st Assembly Districts mean either party could win control. Johnson rated the state Senate as leaning Democratic, partially because several Republican incumbents retired after easily beating back challenges in past reelection campaigns.
Crowley leads Tiffany by four points in new head-to-head poll of likely voters was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.
If you think stories like this are important, become a member of Urban Milwaukee and help support real, independent journalism. Plus you get some cool added benefits.
Political Contributions Tracker
Displaying political contributions between people mentioned in this story. Learn more.
All Republicans and their voters are traitors and child rapists.
If only Crowley would listen to the people of Wisconsin and support a moratorium or even a ban on data centers… he would blow TT out of the water
Thinking data centers is going to be looming large as an issue. Agree that Crowley needs to address this beyond vague statements about taking a look at it. Furthermore, if he could get Hong to help stump for his team that would help get her supporters to firm up their support. Too many grumbling about sitting out the election, and now is not the time for alienating any voters on the left.
I agree, Crowley needs to state clearly what his position on building data centers. While a moratorium may be a bit drastic, it makes sense to pause development and spend the time listening to the concerns of the voters. Then develop a set of criteria data centers must meet before any building begins. Actually, listening to voters would be an excellent strategy for bring Hong and Barnes voter into the Crowley camp. Telling us we have to support Crowley in November will not ensure we actually vote for Crowley. We voted for Hong and Barnes because we supported the positions those candidates took. The voters are looking for substantive change on issues concerning healthcare, childcare, affordable housing across the state. My request of the democratic leadership is to respect and listen to the voters. We are not pawns in your political game.
One more point; calling Republican voters traitors and child rapist only plays into Tiffany’s hand. RRRs (radical reactionary republicans) have been pushed the “Us versus Them” strategy for the most of this century. Dividing working people against each other is how RRRs and their wealthy benefactors maintain the status quo; a status quo that allows the uber wealthy to increase their wealth on the backs of working families. Democrats must be the uniters; open to everyone. Democracy cannot survive if we cannot respect the humanity of those we disagree we disagree with.
This data center debate is tricky for urbanists and environmentalists. There is generally universal agreement that we shouldn’t be plowing over millions of acres of farm/forest/”clean” land to build hyper-scaled data centers. Those are horrible land use decisions and having communities subsidize those projects with taxpayer dollars is even worse!. However data centers in urban areas as a means to boost tax base, take advantage of existing energy grids and reclaim polluted land can’t be easily dismissed. There are industrial parts of our city that haven’t seen development in 50 years and won’t see it for another 50 unless a major opportunity arises to clean that land and bring it new life. And while the job numbers for data centers aren’t huge, there are jobs there in an industry that is technical and forward looking. Cities have the existing infrastructure to house reasonably sized data centers, the need for new tax base, the need for new jobs and the need to help existing local companies with their long term data storage needs. It would be foolish to see this proliferation of data centers as a threat to cities rather than an opportunity.
Love Lizwah’s comment, spot on.
Vague comments will loose the race. Crowley has to stand up and stand for something.
Lizwah–
Could not agree more. In addition to agreeing with your points, I feel it necessary to address the positions of mkwagner, who makes very valid points, as well.
It will be very important to address the concerns of Francesca Hong voters, and at least listen to their concerns and try to find some common ground. My hope is that this gets done as quickly as possible in order for Hong voters to truly feel like their opinions and concerns matter to Crowley and to the Democratic Party at large. Those two entities risk having Hong supporters not voting in November if this does not reach some sort of reasonable resolution, and if that happens we will spend the next 4 years listening to the blathering of Governor Tom Tiffany.
Neither the Hong nor the Crowley supporters want that.
David Crowley may not know how to enact specifics of a data center moratorium. He needs to hear them from voters.
This video of a contractor citing specifics, like registered capital bonds, made the rounds recently: https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/1v5dyzo/man_outlines_whats_wrong_with_data_centres_and/
I know a lot of folks who usually vote Republican who do not like Tiffany and plan to vote only for local officials. They will not vote for governor rather than vote for Crowley. At this point, I think only Hong and her supporters can help this very weak IMO Dem candidate pull it off. Gwen Moore and her stomping will do nothing in north central and northern Wisconsin to earn votes for Crowley.