Crowley Is Only One Who Could Beat Hong
It’s a two-person race. Can the county executive make up the gap in one week?
County Executive David Crowley at Coggs Center Groundbreaking. Photo by Jeramey Jannene.
It’s decision time for Democrats.
There’s just six days left in the primary for governor and it’s clearly a two-person race between the front-runner, state Rep. Francesca Hong, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.
The State Navigate poll released on July 28 found Hong far ahead with 44%, Crowley second at 15%, Barnes with 14% and Brennan and Kelda Roys both at 4%. The Marquette Poll, which is probably more accurate, was released a day later and showed Hong at 38%, Barnes at 16%, Crowley at 7% and Brennan and Roys tied at 2%. With Barnes dropping out of the race, Crowley is clearly in second place. Brennan and Roys have barely registered in poll after poll and have never shown any momentum in this race. Yes, both did well in the candidate debate, but not many people watch debates or make a decision based on them.
Then there’s the fact that Crowley has been endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, Mayor Cavalier Johnson and many other Democratic officials, which has brought more momentum to his campaign. Compare the excitement of this recent ad by Crowley with the one released by Brennan, where he lumbers down the street and offers a tepid message that he will be a “governor for us.” Brennan is a nice guy and that’s come through in his ads, but not much else. At a time when Democrats are dying for a fighter, why would they choose him?
The latest Marquette poll found that 34% of Democratic primary voters haven’t made up their minds, which leaves a lot of voters left for Crowley to convince, and the Evers endorsement will help. Sixty-two percent of respondents said they have heard of Evers’ endorsement of Crowley and 36% said this makes them more likely to support Crowley.
Then there is the impact of Barnes dropping out: He had 16% of the vote in the poll and that’s now up for grabs. The poll showed Hong’s support was heaviest with very liberal and liberal voters, while Barnes and Crowley had the most support from liberal and moderate conservative voters, suggesting most are likely to switch from Barnes to Crowley. The fact that both are Black candidates based in Milwaukee might also make a switch to Crowley more likely.
The endorsement of Crowley by Evers and other top Democrats could be a double-edged sword in this primary: it opens the door to Hong arguing Crowley is the establishment candidate. But the fact that Crowley grew up in the 53206 ZIP code, one of the poorest and most segregated areas in the nation, makes that claim a little harder to stick.
Indeed, from the time he took over as the county executive, Crowley has made “equity” for all a part of every funding and programmatic decision, including building affordable housing in the suburbs, something that’s long been fiercely opposed in metro Milwaukee. Yet he has done this in such a friendly and non-threatening way, always searching for partnerships, that he has overcome opposition.
No one in the primary, including Brennan, has nearly as much experience running a government as Crowley. He has run one of the largest and most financially distressed governments in the state for nearly six years with smart budgeting decisions, while working two years to get the Republican-run state Legislature to approve a higher sales tax for Milwaukee County, which helped save it from bankruptcy.
Can Crowley win the general election? There is this idea openly expressed by some Democrats that a Black man can’t win a statewide race in Wisconsin. Except that Barack Obama won the state twice, and by large margins. Is Crowley as effective a campaigner as Obama? Those who’ve met him know Crowley is a contagious optimist, a happy warrior with a great smile, and with his glasses perhaps conveys some of that intellectual quality Obama had.
The Marquette poll found that 67% of respondents still haven’t heard enough about Crowley to have an opinion. That gives him a lot of room to grow, but not much time to do it. But he’s the only Democrat with any chance of defeating Hong. Should he manage to win the primary it will be an upset victory that will give his campaign tremendous momentum. He will then have three months for voters to get to know him, and he is easy to like. He was not strong in the Democratic debate, but in a one-on-one match against Republican Tom Tiffany he will have more time to win people over. Moreover, he comes without all the baggage Hong will bring to the general election.
As Republican statements have made clear, they view Hong as the most beatable Democratic opponent. She will be attacked for proposing to abolish the police, legalize prostitution, abolish the U.S. Senate, cancel Thanksgiving and more than double the top rate for income taxpayers. She now backs a much lower tax hike and tried to walk back her past statements on the police but has had problems doing so, as in this interview with Dana Bash on CNN.
The case for Hong was made by Brian Fraley, who writes for the conservative Dairyland Sentinel: “Trump won Wisconsin twice by convincing working-class voters that elites rigged the game against them and that he shared their anger and would change the broken system. Francesca Hong is betting she can do the exact same thing from the left.”
But Trump had a unique, never-before-seen ability to shrug off negative attacks. It remains to be seen how Hong will handle this. A general election that pits Hong against Tiffany will be a shootout between candidates at the far end of their respective parties. By contrast, Tiffany, one of America’s most conservative members of Congress, would look very extreme against Crowley.
The admirable thing about Hong is her passion. But Crowley is passionate, too. He hasn’t forgotten what it’s like to grow up in dire poverty. But he’s learned that passionate declarations don’t get the job done. You have to work and build a consensus to accomplish change and it’s not easy. As he’s proven at the county, he is up to the job.
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- August 13, 2015 - Cavalier Johnson received $25 from David Crowley
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Fran has a lot of great qualities, but aspiration is not reality unless you can make them happen.
As much as the Fran Fans protest this, I do not see her having the background to administer a $55 billion budget.
Please prove me wrong besides “she can do it” and in some cases I’ve been told they don’t have to tell me.
Moreover, the question arises will she know the right people to staff her team?
David has run the second largest government in the state, has great programs, and has the personality and drive to win north of Highway 29. He’s ready to go.
For the first time in 15 years we can end this Wisconsin melaise under Republican rule and take the state legislature. I worry what Fran’s impact is going to have down ballot. Her supporters are asking us to take a huge gamble.
Tiffany is Trump’s toady and he would be Scott Walker 2.0, catering to the ultra-wealthy in the state at the expense of the rest of us.
Right now the Republicans are not energized but endless commercials labelling her of being a communist will perk them up.
We’d better not bow this.
I don’t know why Joel and Kelda are holding out. Seeing McMorrow get more votes than the gap between El-Sayed and Stevens illustrates at this point they are more likely spoilers vs viable candidates.
A few weeks ago everyone I knew who was not a Hong supporter was relatively undecided. She locked up her lane early and 35-40 seems like her consistent ceiling. If half of Barnes voters go to her (possible) she gets up into low-mid 40s. Crowley has a chance now that this is mostly a 2-way but will depend on all undecideds and a lot of Barnes voters throwing in at end.
David had a track record and positive personality that will be a great general election candidate against Tiffany whose entire record in Congress has been backing Trump. Hong can mobilize new people but will spend a lot of time on defense because of relentless ads about past statements
Every day Hong carries more baggage, can’t step away from culture wars, and shows that she is not ready to be governor.
My favorite candidate is Roys. She is a progressive with real experience, but absolutely s**t the bed with her campaign.
But I’m leaning towards voting Crowley because I think he will be much more effective as governor than Hong could possibly be even if I wish he was more progressive than pragmatic.
@Paulsother, at Fran’s recent rally, there were special seats reserved for canvassers. Almost 2/3s of those seats were filled with people who were 60+. There is not an age ceiling for Hong’s support.
Hong may spend a lot of time on defense, but so will Tom. He’s a right-wing extremist, an election denier, and his voting record doesn’t at all match what he claims his policies will be. In a day and age where more and more of the right are getting tired of Trump’s bullshit (Per The Economist, Trump’s net approval is -26 in Wisconsin, last updated on 8/4/26), I believe association with Trump is certainly a double edged sword. Sure, you can win the support of the Trump loyalists, but the average person will see that association and run.
It is “fun” to see how they messed it up and now try to defeat the “progressive” candidate. Tony appearing with Crowley. Barnes got Tony elected and Sara got Tony elected and BOTH were ignored by Tony Not “forcing” the 9 to discuss a way out was failure one. Not running adds against Tiffany NOW is failure 2 “Blackballing” Barnes was number 3. It was as if he did not exist. And not supporting Sara was failure four. Amazing the Dems still might win considering both Trump and Tiffany and then there is Women’s health that seems to be forgotten but will be the KEY
I am happy to have David Crowley as my County Exec and look forward to him ending his term and running for reelection. Right now we don’t need nice in Wisconsin we need anger to match the anger of the voters. The people of New London are facing losing hundreds of hard working neighbors when ICE turns its attention to the Haitians. The dairy industry is losing customers due to the high tariffs, and their workers will be self deporting. Healthcare is a memory to many who faced the cuts forced on the state. Snap is not a program for just Milwaukee it is statewide. We can no longer be a state where the largest employer in a community is the state prison. The voters are pissed and are not looking for nice and reaching across the aisle. Francesca Hong is going to be our candidate for governor. The time has come for all of us Democrats, independants , and left behind Republicans to join together and defeat Tiffany.
Take a look at what happened in the Michigan senate primary and what happened in New York. The voters are not lining up with Democratic leadership (DL). Voters want real change. DL chosen candidates in the past have never been about eal change. These candidates are expected to make nice with DL billionaire donors. Those donors do not want radical change. They are only willing to support incremental change as long as it doesn’t uproot the status quo.
Voters are tired of incremental change. They are tired of a status quo the only benefits the 1%. Voters are choosing candidates that are about change that makes voters’ lives better. Incremental change will not make a difference.
Voters are tired of DL selecting candidates party members are supposed to vote for. Voters are not falling in line with DL anymore. Voters are angry with DL for bringing back Crowley after voters clearly indicated he isn’t who they want to support. Why DL selected him after he dropped out is beyond me. It is long passed the time when voters line up behind the anointed candidate. It is time DL in Wisconsin–and the rest of the country–align with what the voters are saying. DL may think they are leading, but voters are not following them.
MJD says:
Crowley has a much better chance of beating Tiffany than Hong for many reasons. Moderate democrats should unite now behind Crowley so he can be our candidate. Neither Brennan nor Roys have a chance of victory. They should drop out so voters can pick between the two viable candidates head to head. I know I am not the only one who thinks Brennan and Roys should drop out in the interests of party unity. Where are the other voices?
The Democratic primary is basically over. Hong will win. And due to her unpopular ideas which are well documented, ,she will lose to Tiffany. Although she will try to walk back defund the police, defund ICE, Thanksgiving celebrates colonialism, get rid of prisons, open borders, etc,,Tiffany will spend tons of money showing how she did support these positions. Tiffany will be worse than Scott Walker. It’s very depressing.
Keep the faith. There is more than No Thanksgiving Try Abortion and food stamps and ………. This does not say the Dem’s will pull it off but the issues for Hong to WIN are there.