Marquette Poll Shows Hong Leading, Barnes Second

Francesca Hong speaks to the Milwaukee Club. Photo by Graham Kilmer.

The latest Marquette Law School poll results show that Rep. Francesca Hong is leading the Democratic primary for governor with 26% of respondents backing her, while former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes was second with 15%. Greater Milwaukee Committee CEO Joel Brennan was a distant third with 2%, and state Sen. Kelda Roys was fourth with just 1%.

But the results were skewed because the survey was done while Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez was in the race, and she was backed for governor by 11% of survey respondents. Also skewing the results is that Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley was not in the race when the survey was done, but he has re-entered the race, buoyed by endorsements from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson.

The poll did ask respondents who their second choice was, and pollster Charles Franklin offered a second ranking, adding the second choice of those voting for Rodriguez and adjusting the other candidates’ totals accordingly. That left Hong leading with 27% of the vote, Barnes with 18%, Brennan with 5%, and Roys with 2%.

Both rankings would seem to suggest a two-person race, with Hong and Barnes considerably ahead of the other candidates. The poll is also the third in a row by Marquette showing Hong leading. She has continued to surprise those who thought a socialist Democrat could not win the primary, and she has gotten further ahead of Barnes in each successive poll.

But the poll also showed that 45% of respondents were undecided in the race, suggesting this could still be a wide-open race, all the more so given the re-entrance of Crowley, who yesterday received endorsements from mayors Alicia Halvensleben of Waukesha, Dennis McBride of Wauwatosa, and Ryan Sorenson of Sheboygan and appears to be gaining momentum.

The poll also showed that while 67% of Republican respondents backed U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany for governor, about 30% were undecided, suggesting many voters across parties were undecided.

As to what is the most important issue for voters, the poll found that the first choice by far was “inflation and the cost of living,” which was chosen by 42% of respondents. With the exception of immigration, chosen as most important by 13% of respondents, most of the other issues chosen were also related to the cost of living, including health insurance and housing, suggesting the fall election will be decided by pocketbook issues.

As to what Democratic voters are looking for, the poll found 67% said winning the November general election was “extremely important” to them.

As to how Democratic respondents lined up ideologically, among those who called themselves “very liberal,” 58% chose Hong and 10% chose Barnes; among those who called themselves “liberal,” 26% chose Hong and 18% chose Barnes; among those who called themselves moderately liberal or conservative, 15% chose Barnes and 8% chose Hong.

Hong’s backers were also the most sure about their choice. Among Democratic primary voters who support a candidate, 64% said they were certain about their choice, while 36% said they might change their mind. But 72% of Hong supporters said they are certain to support her.

But one troubling sign for Hong: 25% of all respondents had a favorable impression of democratic socialists, while 55% had an unfavorable impression and 19% “haven’t heard enough” to have an opinion.