The Surprising Campaign of Rep. Francesca Hong

Francesca Hong. Photo from Wisconsin State Representative Francesca Hong’s Facebook page.

State Rep. Francesca Hong’s campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor seemed quixotic at best. She was going against better-known candidates like the former lieutenant governor and 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and those with more executive experience like Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, and was starting out with perhaps the smallest power base, representing an Assembly district with just a portion of the city of Madison.

But she has far outperformed expectations. The January reports on campaign contributions showed her with 5,477 unique donors, far ahead of Barnes, who was second with 3,360, and then Rodriguez, with 2,095 unique donors, as Urban Milwaukee reported.

Then came the Marquette Law School poll in late February showing she was the first choice of respondents, with 11% favoring her for governor, compared to 10% for Barnes and 6% for current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez. MU pollster Charles Franklin put that result at the bottom of the poll’s section on the governor’s race, noting that 65% of respondents hadn’t decided.

“The results show people aren’t thinking about the race much,” he cautioned in remarks to Urban Milwaukee. “Just 8% have heard a lot. So it’s too early to handicap front runners. Except for Barnes, Hong and Rodriguez, the candidates are barely known. The spring will be a time for greater attention and voters forming more solid impressions.”

But the poll had other good news for Hong. She ranked third in name ID statewide, just behind Rodriguez and well ahead of her in Madison. Hong also ranked third, just behind Rodriguez, in net favorability among Dems. (Barnes was far ahead in both categories.)

“Hong does best with young voters, 18-29 but also 30-44, as well as independents voting in the Dem primary and people who describe themselves as very liberal,” Franklin noted. “Those are also the types who donate online. She also has a strong social media presence with enthusiastic supporters there.”

Hong is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and that has helped her win this support. “Hong’s relatively high numbers in this early field are the results of DSA voters being high information voters,” says one Democratic consultant. “They know their candidates and they are all in for her.”

“That’s a real problem for Mandela as this is a key part traditionally of his base,” the consultant adds. “Every vote for Fran is potentially a vote taken from Barnes.”

Hong also moved ahead of state Sen. Kelda Roys in name recognition in the Madison market and statewide, though Roys’ district is three times larger and includes Hong’s, and Roys ran a respectable third in the 2018 Democratic primary won by Tony Evers.

But Hong also spent heavily to get that support, notes another consultant. “Hong spent, by far, the highest percentage of what she raised,” the consultant says. “By my calculations her spend rate was 63.51%. For comparison’s sake, Crowley was second on that front with a 23.95% burn rate.”

Still, both consultants note that Hong now has thousands of donors she can go back to for money money. “But these campaigns with massively high burn rates to chase donations often spend all their money pursuing more money,” the first consultant notes. “It can be a vicious cycle.”

Yet former legislator and longtime political pundit Mordecai Lee notes that Hong has the advantage of running in a very large field of seven to eight candidates. “If everyone stays in the race, then the winner will probably only need 20% to 25% of the vote to win the nomination. That’s an absurd result.” And Hong could conceivably double her support from 11% of the voters, he added, which would put her in a very competitive position.

All of that said, Barnes is still the front-runner, with by far the highest name recognition in the state and by far the highest net favorability among Democrats. Certainly Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany views the race that way, as Barnes is generally the only Democratic candidate he attacks, though Barnes may also be the candidate Tiffany prefers to face in the general election.

Hong’s surprising numbers have tended to overshadow some strong numbers for Rodriguez, who was second (to Crowley) in total money raised and second to Barnes in both statewide name recognition and net favorability among Democratic voters.

The primary seems to be shaping up with two lanes for candidates, with Barnes, Hong and Roys in the liberal lane and Crowley, Greater Milwaukee Committee leader Joel Brennan, and former Wisconsin economic development director Missy Hughes as the three more centrist candidates with administrative experience. Under that scenario, a candidate would probably have to win at least one of those lanes to win the primary.

Rodriguez, however, may not fit neatly into either lane. She’s a Waukesha County Democrat who grew up in Brookfield and defeated a Republican incumbent to win election to the legislature. She might be the wild card in an election whose results are very hard to predict.

“It’s not like what Democrats saw in the 2022 Senate primary or the 2018 gubernatorial primary,” says a consultant. “This is a wide open race right now without anyone having an overwhelming advantage.”

UPDATE: Corrected a typo involving Tony Evers.