What Do the NAEP Tests Tell Us About Student Achievement?

The recent NAEP test results have caused major angst among people who track student achievement. NAEP stands for the National Assessment of Educational Progress and is typically given at two-year intervals to a random sample of US students.

NAEP, often referred to as “the nation’s report card,” started with measuring skills in reading and mathematics for every state. For example, the following graph shows the national reading scores since 1992, when the exam was first offered. In addition to the green median line the chart shows the 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles.

This graph illustrates several of the reasons for concern. For one, after steadily increasing over time, the median turned downward after 2017, and especially after 2019. At the time this downward trend was widely attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic that hit in 2020. In response, most schools moved online to try to halt the spread of the disease.

The hope was that once schools reopened, the downward trend would stop and even reverse itself. Unfortunately, so far at least, that hasn’t happened. In addition, those in the bottom 10% lost 10 points compared to one point suffered by those in the top 10%, suggesting greater inequality.

In addition, the fact that the decline started before anyone had heard of Covid, resulted in a search for other causes, including the rise in social media.

The next graph shows 8th grade reading scores. Their behavior is quite similar to that of 4th grade scores, with most of the recent decline occurring among students who are already at the bottom.

Students taking the grade 8 NAEP in 2019 would have been members of the cohort who took the 4th grade test in 2015. In 2015, reading scores were near their maximum. Yet they declined in 2019.

The graph below offers a picture of the likely impact of poverty (called “economic disadvantage”) on educational achievement. Using data on 12th grade math exams, the solid red line shows the average scores if none of the test takers were economically disadvantaged. The average score on the 2024 test in that case would be 157. By contrast, the dashed red line shows the average scores if they were based on the scores of students considered economically disadvantaged. The average 2024 score would be 132. (To avoid having the scores conflict on the graph, scores if no students were economically disadvantaged are shown above the dot; if all students were economically disadvantaged, the score is shown below the dot.)

Likewise, the two green lines contrast the 75% percentile levels if all students were — and were not — economically disadvantaged. And the blue lines show the same story for the 25% percentile levels. In all cases the average scores for students in poverty were much lower.

Milwaukee Public Schools is not immune from these trends. The next graph shows the district’s Grade 4 and 8 math scores between 2009 and 2024. Both scores max out in 2013 and have declined since then. The decline started well before the pandemic and before the national decline began.

The next chart shows MPS fourth and eighth grade reading scores. Notably the 8th grade math score is an exception to the decline in outcomes over time.

The next chart also provides a view of the connection between poverty and academic achievement. Using data from the 4th grade reading test, the orange bar shows the likely score received by each school if it only included students who were not economically disadvantaged. By contrast, the blue bar represents the likely score if all students were economically disadvantaged.

Certainly, poverty is not the only factor that explains differences in educational outcomes. But it is a major one, underlining why efforts to reduce poverty are highly important.