Who’s Ahead in Wisconsin Supreme Court Election?

Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, left, and former Attorney General Brad Schimel, right, are running for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court in April 2025. Photos courtesy of the Crawford and Schimel campaigns

The race for Wisconsin Supreme Court, between the liberal candidate Susan Crawford, and the conservative candidate Brad Schimel, is likely to be very close. That’s about the only thing Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Ben Wikler and GOP chair Brian Schimming agreed on in an interview with WISN’s Upfront show.

Both also talked about signs there would be a big turnout for their side. As big as the turnout was in the April 2023 race for Wisconsin Supreme Court won by the liberal candidate Janet Protasiewicz, most are expecting even bigger numbers this year.

Who is ahead in the race? That depends on what poll you’re looking at and when it was conducted.

A poll by the conservative news site TIPP Insights, which surveyed 1,045 registered voters from February 7 to February 11, showed the race tied, with each candidate receiving 38 percent of the vote, as Newsweek reported.

The respected Marquette Law School poll conducted a survey between February 19-26 among 864 registered voters and found that 29 percent of respondents viewed Schimel favorably and 32 percent viewed him unfavorably, while 19% viewed Crawford favorably and 23% percent unfavorably. Thirty-eight percent said they don’t know enough about Schimel to make a decision about him, while 58% said they don’t know enough about Crawford to form an opinion. Marquette pollster Charles Franklin said there were too many without an opinion to try to handicap the race.

An RMG Research poll just after this, among 800 registered voters from February 25 to February 28, showed Crawford ahead by 42% to 35%, with 17% undecided, Newsweek reported.

About two weeks later a poll of 600 likely voters on March 9-10 conducted by OnMessage Inc. for the conservative Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce showed Crawford and Schimel both at 47%, with 5% of voters unsure.

The most recent poll, by SoCal Strategies, conducted between March 25-26 among 500 registered and likely voters, gave Crawford a 50-42 lead over Schimel. The poll showed Crawford had a small lead among white voters and a huge lead among Black voters, with Hispanic voters evenly divided.

In the WISN interview Wikler referenced America PAC, the group funded by billionaire Elon Musk: “His group just released a polling memo that put Brad Schimel five points behind if I read that right,” Wikler said.

All told the polls have mostly favored Crawford, but she started ahead of Schimel in total campaign funding and has fallen behind in the last few weeks. As of yesterday, the Associated Press reported, some $82 million had been spent on the campaign, with experts predicting the final tally will hit $100 million, shattering all previous records for a state judicial election. With the help of more than $13 million in spending by billionaire Musk, Schimel is winning the money battle.

“Schimel and his allies, which include groups backed by Musk, have spent about $46 million, while Crawford and her supporters have spent about $36 million,” the AP noted.

With Donald Trump endorsing Schimel and Musk bankrolling him, Republicans are betting the spring election will echo the results in November, when Trump won by a tiny margin, just 30,000 votes. But this will have a smaller turnout than a presidential election, meaning it will all come down to which party has a better turnout operation. And that’s something the polls can’t predict.