Were We Better Off Four Years Ago?
It's a central claim in Trump campaign. But the data tells an interesting story.
Donald Trump. Photo from whitehouse.gov.
In a statement on the Republican Party of Wisconsin website, Chair Brian Schimming accuses Kamala Harris of “expecting us to ignore what our bank statements and monthly budgets make clear: that we were better off four years ago under Trump.”
Weekly Deaths from Covid
This is a version of a question made famous by Ronald Reagan in a debate with President Jimmy Carter: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” For many viewers, the answer was No and Reagan went on to win the election. Ever since this question has been popular among Republican politicians.
The trouble with Schimming’s statement is that four years ago puts us squarely in October 2020—and squarely in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As the graph below shows, in the week of Oct. 3, 2020, COVID killed 4,240 residents of the United States. This compares to 679 COVID deaths during the week of Oct. 5, 2024.
The 4,240 COVID deaths represent something of a valley between two peaks in 2020. In October 2020, COVID deaths were about to take off, hitting a peak of 25,974 deaths on Jan 9, 2021, towards the end of Trump’s term.
The next graph shows the overall pattern of these deaths, appearing to be slowing down, only to peak again.
Weekly Deaths from COVID
Needless to say, a variety of economic measures reacted to this. For instance, the unemployment rate had hit 14.8% nationally and 14.0% in Wisconsin in the previous April. By October, the rates had dropped to 7.8% and 5.8%.
The problem started years before COVID-19 appeared. Experts within and outside the government were warning that the question was not whether but when the next disease would strike. Reflecting the realization that an effective to biological threats required nation among many federal and state agencies, the Obama administration built on Bush administration plans to create a “Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents.”
The Trump Administration shelved the playbook and, in 2018, terminated the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense. Thus, when COVID hit, the government had no map for who needed to do what. Yet Trump insisted: “Nobody knew there’d be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion. Nobody’s ever seen anything like this before.”
Early on, Trump minimized the danger posed by COVID. Talking to reporters in February, Trump declared: “We have it very much under control in this country … Very interestingly, we’ve had no deaths.”
Worried about the next election, Trump downplayed the seriousness of the virus. Recently, he claimed:
I had the country going, just prior to COVID coming in, at a level that nobody had ever seen. And even if you go all four years, it was so good that even with that terrible interruption that destroyed the world, we had the greatest four years. The economy was so great. The job numbers were the best ever, et cetera.
The next chart shows the growth of jobs by president since Truman. Job growth under Democratic presidents is shown in blue, under Republicans in red. I split the Trump results in two: Trump1 shows the results for Trump’s first three years. Trump 2 shows the job loss during his final year.
The chart shows moderate job growth during Trump’s first three years, continuing a trend established by the Obama administration. This was more than offset by job loss in 2020, for a Trump net of -1,856,000. Dropping Trump’s job record for 2020 leaves a respectful jobs record, exceeding all Republicans other than Reagan and Nixon, but falling below that of most Democratic administrations. That is hardly the “greatest economy in the history of the world.”
Growth in Jobs by President
In 2021, PolitiFact: decided to investigate Trump’s claim. Its conclusion? “No, Donald Trump didn’t lead ‘greatest economy in the history of the world.’”
The strongest evidence in favor of the claim, PolitFact concluded, is the unemployment rate. The chart below shows US unemployment since 1948 (in yellow) and Wisconsin unemployment since 1976 (in green). The dotted yellow and green lines show the smallest national and state unemployment rates since 1976. To find an unemployment rate smaller than that found in Trump’s first three years, one would have to go back to the 1950s.
Interestingly, the lowest Wisconsin unemployment rate occurred during the Biden administration, not Trump’s.
US and Wisconsin unemployment rates
As to job growth, we have already seen that, even excluding 2020, most of the Democratic presidents had better results than Trump. It also pointed to other factors that suggest the Trump record fell short:
- Growth in GDP was only “so-so.”
- The federal deficit grew under Trump
- Wage increases were modest compared to the 1960s.
- Low interest rates came from the Federal Reserve, a sign that the Fed considered the economy shaky.
Even if one ignores the mismanagement of the COVID challenge the Trump record on the economy falls far short of leading to the “greatest economy in the history of the world.” Because of Trump’s intransigence on COVID, unemployment rates in his final year soared to historic levels.
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Ah Data BUT what of dealing with TRUMP everyday of our lives for now 7+ years No other person much less president has so occupied OUR LIVES in this manner. The list of ways that this has come about is very long. The POWER of the LIE and then our “leaders” seeing that there are no immediate consequences for telling the LIES and here we are today, a Congress supporting Putin and Netanyahu leading us around like a pig or a cow at the fair. Violating every tenet of his own religion much less, basic decency and international law. Are we so afraid of the TRUTH? Which reality will we experience if Trump wins???
Are there more good people who will stand up to Trump than stood up to Hitler How many of us will go to the camps with those rounded up even if they voted for Trump. Are we better of today then 4 years ago What kind of question is that.
Hummmmm
What bothers me the most is that no one effectively challenges the lies that are being spewed. As an example. One commercial says that gasoline prices went up 3x during the Biden/Harris administration. Totally false. Gasoline was between $2.29 and $2,89 in 2017 . That would have meant that at one point we were paying near $7.00 a gallon, which is a lie. Recently on-line, another MAGA socialite posted that we are still paying “more than double” the price for a gallon of gas today than when Trump was in office.. Well, I just paid $2.69. I guess that means that gas is pretty much the same today as it was 4 years ago. Sure, it fluctuated by region (and by individual gas stations). But the MAGA claims need to be challenged by both the Democrats running for office, as well as by the local and National press. Its one thing when the former guy lies. Its another when the cult followers make up their own as well.
“Although Trump was not responsible for the COVID pandemic, he, and the people who worked for him were responsible for mounting an effective response. They fell short in many ways.”
That last statement is ridiculously kind. Ingest bleach. Shine bright lights. Wait until the warm weather comes. Take medication meant for killing parasites in farm animals. Masks don’t work. Don’t stop in-person learning in schools. Don’t stop in-person worship in churches.
He didn’t even have a concept of a plan for managing COVID and devoted all of his energy toward deflection and deception rather than implementing plans to protect lives.
And now he takes the position that HIS economy was the best ever. His lies are like our universe. They are already enormous, always expanding, and at an accelerating rate. And the scariest part of all of it is that there are enough cult members that believe all of his BS, and they vote.