Crowley Holds Slim Edge Over Tiffany In New Marquette Poll
Survey shows governor’s race within margin of error as independents drift to undecided.
David Crowley and Tom Tiffany.
The latest poll of Wisconsin’s race for governor shows Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly leading Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany.
The Marquette University Law School surveyed 843 registered Wisconsin voters between Sept. 16-23. That sample included 692 likely voters.
The survey found 49 percent of likely voters said they’d vote for Crowley, while 46 percent said they’d vote for Tiffany. Another 5 percent said they were undecided.
Among all registered voters, Crowley led Tiffany 46 to 45 percent with 9 percent undecided.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent all voters, and 4.8 percent among likely voters. That means Crowley’s lead among both groups was well within the survey’s margin of error.
Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin said the results show Crowley leading Tiffany among independents by a 44-18 margin, but 38 percent still haven’t decided who they’ll support in November. Franklin also noted Crowley’s support among independents has dropped by 11 percentage points in the last month.
“So, Crowley’s support has dropped off with independents, but that has not moved to Tiffany,” said Franklin. “What it’s moved to is undecided, and so there’s been some shift there, but it’s not yet boosting Tiffany a lot.”
The last Marquette poll in August showed Crowley with a similar lead over Tiffany among likely voters while the race was tied among all registered voters. Large percentages of those surveyed said at the time they didn’t know enough about either candidate.
The survey released Wednesday found both Crowley and Tiffany have become more well known since August, thanks in part to millions of dollars being spent on campaign advertisements and door-to-door canvassing. Tiffany’s campaign has held a massive fundraising advantage this year, aided by millions in donations from megadonors Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.
Franklin said the deluge of advertising has been having an impact.
“It has dramatically increased Crowley’s unfavorable ratings with Republicans. It’s also hurt him with Independents, who are now more unfavorable to him than they were before,” Franklin said.
President Donald Trump’s favorability hits another record low, but Franklin says it isn’t translating to state races
As with previous Marquette surveys this year, the latest poll found inflation and the cost of living remained the top concern among registered voters, and 43 percent of them said they’re worse off than they were in 2025. President Donald Trump’s policies like his war against Iran and tariffs against other countries, including longtime allies like Canada, took the blame.
Among all registered voters, 60 percent said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing during his second term, while 38 percent approve. That’s the lowest approval rating Marquette has ever recorded for the president in Wisconsin.
But Franklin noted Wisconsin’s campaign for governor and polling from around the nation has shown Republicans and Democrats in tight statewide races.
“If you just look at the president’s job approval numbers, Democrats should be winning by 20 points instead of what they’re doing,” said Franklin. “If they’re winning, they’re winning by a handful of points, and in some cases they’re losing.”
Franklin said he believes there may be “a little too much attention on the gloom of the national picture for Republicans” obscuring how competitive races are around the country. “And that’s very much true here in Wisconsin as well.”
Crowley narrowly leads Tiffany in latest Marquette poll was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.
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Crowley campaign needs to improve messaging. The Maga Abortion ads are not winning issue now. Tiffany voted for the Big Beautiful Bill and its inflation increasing effects.
Id just say Tom Tiffany approves of child rape ans corruption. Republicans are useless and a waste of oxygen.
There comes a point where Crowley and corporate Dems feel more like manufactured opposition rather than the real thing. You would think they’d utilize some of that underdog energy but they still talk about abortion like the general public hasn’t moved on to the next big thing, or isn’t constantly complaining about gas prices. With that being said, independent “centrist” voters make up the largest group of hypocrites outside the republican voter block. They want to both sides everything from the environment to voter rights. One side is trying to deport American citizens to El Salvador. The other side wants to think about potentially doing something to address the issue through a sternly worded email, letter, or MSNBC appearance. Centrists somehow find a way to feel conflicted about it. Maybe an email is too extreme for them? Centrists pretend to vote with their conscious but they only really vote for their convenience, like republicans but less obvious. Its gonna be an uphill battle for Crowley.
Maybe we are just a majority of awful, selfish, small minded idiots who have finally got the representatives we deserve, starting with the greedy, disgusting, dictator-wannabe, pig at the top. Not sure how else the math works.
I think we were put in a terrible position. Why did Evers endorse Crowley? IMO, he clearly was not the best choice. Being dependent on public transit my entire life, I think I understand how a certain segment of society thinks and votes by listening my entire working life while on MCTS. There’s a certain element of our society that will not vote unless “one of my own” is on the ballot. Evers did not want Hong to win. He felt his only choice was to endorse Crowley, because he would get the votes in the greater Milwaukee and Dane County areas in the primary. We will all end up paying the price if TT wins. I will definitely be paying the price because of the way Crowley and the ineffective County Board handled the former entitled culture that ran MCTS. Allowing a policy that actually encouraged fare evasion.
I still question if Crowley really wants to be governor. His ads are so passive. I have no idea what his policies are even after reading his web page. We best get used to Governor Tom.
Sentiment will gradually shift away from Crowley once the opposition starts running ads depicting him as very, very black. Unfortunately ads depicting Tiffany as very, very stupid are not easy to run, especially as he keeps hiding away from any difficult questions.
Given Tiffany’s voting record, a vote for our state’s ’MiniatureTrump’ is an endorsement of Trump’s entire policy agenda. David Crowley is a honest, decent guy. I know that. I worked with him during my days on the Milwaukee County Board, but I supported Francisca Hong during the primary and was saddened by her loss. But for folks distressed by Trump’s draconian rule? If you really want change, a vote for Tiffany will only assure more of the same Trumpian garbage.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2026/10/01/sarah-longwell-how-to-defeat-trumpism
I’m with KWH. Crowleys campaign seems to think that a warm smile and a heartwarming back story will defeat this MAGA stooge. It won’t! Stop smiling and start swinging’!