Crowley Holds Slim Edge Over Tiffany In New Marquette Poll

David Crowley and Tom Tiffany.

The latest poll of Wisconsin’s race for governor shows Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly leading Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany.

The Marquette University Law School surveyed 843 registered Wisconsin voters between Sept. 16-23. That sample included 692 likely voters.

The survey found 49 percent of likely voters said they’d vote for Crowley, while 46 percent said they’d vote for Tiffany. Another 5 percent said they were undecided.

Among all registered voters, Crowley led Tiffany 46 to 45 percent with 9 percent undecided.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent all voters, and 4.8 percent among likely voters. That means Crowley’s lead among both groups was well within the survey’s margin of error.

Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin said the results show Crowley leading Tiffany among independents by a 44-18 margin, but 38 percent still haven’t decided who they’ll support in November. Franklin also noted Crowley’s support among independents has dropped by 11 percentage points in the last month.

“So, Crowley’s support has dropped off with independents, but that has not moved to Tiffany,” said Franklin. “What it’s moved to is undecided, and so there’s been some shift there, but it’s not yet boosting Tiffany a lot.”

The last Marquette poll in August showed Crowley with a similar lead over Tiffany among likely voters while the race was tied among all registered voters. Large percentages of those surveyed said at the time they didn’t know enough about either candidate.

The survey released Wednesday found both Crowley and Tiffany have become more well known since August, thanks in part to millions of dollars being spent on campaign advertisements and door-to-door canvassing. Tiffany’s campaign has held a massive fundraising advantage this year, aided by millions in donations from megadonors Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

Franklin said the deluge of advertising has been having an impact.

 “It has dramatically increased Crowley’s unfavorable ratings with Republicans. It’s also hurt him with Independents, who are now more unfavorable to him than they were before,” Franklin said.

President Donald Trump’s favorability hits another record low, but Franklin says it isn’t translating to state races

As with previous Marquette surveys this year, the latest poll found inflation and the cost of living remained the top concern among registered voters, and 43 percent of them said they’re worse off than they were in 2025. President Donald Trump’s policies like his war against Iran and tariffs against other countries, including longtime allies like Canada, took the blame.

Among all registered voters, 60 percent said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing during his second term, while 38 percent approve. That’s the lowest approval rating Marquette has ever recorded for the president in Wisconsin.

But Franklin noted Wisconsin’s campaign for governor and polling from around the nation has shown Republicans and Democrats in tight statewide races.

“If you just look at the president’s job approval numbers, Democrats should be winning by 20 points instead of what they’re doing,” said Franklin. “If they’re winning, they’re winning by a handful of points, and in some cases they’re losing.”

Franklin said he believes there may be “a little too much attention on the gloom of the national picture for Republicans” obscuring how competitive races are around the country. “And that’s very much true here in Wisconsin as well.”

Crowley narrowly leads Tiffany in latest Marquette poll was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.