Democrats Target Rep. Novak in New District

Todd Novak. Photo from the State of Wisconsin.

Reporting sponsored by the U.S. Democracy Day project offers a glimpse into the door-to-door and farm-to-farm fight over who will represent southwest Wisconsin’s new Assembly District 51 — will it be five-term Republican Todd Novak or first-time Democratic candidate Elizabeth Grabe?

The nonpartisan Democracy Day initiative provided a small stipend that underwrote an in-depth multimedia reporting project by two nonprofit Madison media organizations, Isthmus and WORT 89.9 FM, on District 51. (This reporter was one of the Isthmus contributors.)

Isthmus and WORT joined 400 news organizations nationally in a “collaborative journalism” effort that, on Sept. 15, published and broadcast “more — and better — information about the crisis facing democracy” in America, Democracy Day organizers said.

Wisconsin Republicans have had almost two-thirds control of the 99-member Assembly for 14 years, but new district maps offer Democrats a chance to pick up several seats on Nov. 5.

Because one of the Democrats’ targets is District 51, Democracy Day’s reporting provides insight into the campaigns of Novak and Grabe and their campaign managers, who were assigned to the race by Madison-based party officials.

It also shows how challenging it can be to get voters, barraged with news and ads about the presidential campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and the U.S. Senate race between Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde, to focus on a down-ballot race like the state Assembly.

The new District 51 includes a chunk of heavily Democratic Dane County, making Mount Horeb, where Democrats win by two-to-one margins, the largest city in the district. Although that gives the district’s eastern border a suburban Madison feel, the western part of the district includes parts of Lafayette County, where dairy farms anchor the economy.

The new map includes all of Iowa County but no longer includes some rural areas that Novak won handily, which had offset Democratic votes in communities like Dodgeville, where he was mayor for 12 years, and Mineral Point.

Looking at top-of-the-ticket past vote totals, national organizations rate Assembly District 51 as a 55% Democratic district. Novak disputes that, saying the district is “51% or 52%” Democratic when you consider past down-ballot vote totals.

“I’m targeted,” Novak concedes. “I always run like I’m the underdog.”

A realtor who moved back to Mount Horeb from Miami in 2005 to oversee her family’s farm, Grabe acknowledges that she agreed to run after being shown numbers suggesting that a Democrat could win the new District 51.

In her door-to-door visits, Grabe shows voters maps of the old and new districts, asking if they know about the changes. Her political base is that part of Dane County now in District 51.

“I don’t even come in and say, ‘Hi, I’m running for state Assembly,’” Grabe told Isthmus reporter Liam Beran. “I ask them, ‘Are you aware of the new district maps?’ And then I show them the map.”

Novak is running the same low-profile campaign that has worked for 10 years: Knocking on doors four or more hours a day, attending county fairs and other community events and declining debates or joint forums with Grabe.

Grabe attacks Republicans like Novak for not giving public schools enough state aid.

Responding, Novak says most of the 14 school systems in Assembly District 51 are asking voters to pass referendums on Nov. 5 because of inflation and declining numbers of students, which determines their state aid. He also defends big increases in funds to private schools.

How tough is it for a first-time Democratic challenger to unseat a Republican incumbent, even in a new district?

John Johnson, a research fellow at the Marquette University Law School Poll, told Beran that top-of-the-ticket races — for president and U.S. Senate — will drive turnout on Nov. 5.

Few voters know their state Senate or Assembly candidates, or even which districts they live in, Johnson added.

New districts might attract new candidates like Grabe, who is running in what “looks like what I would call a safely-Democratic seat,” Johnson told Beran.

But, Johnson added, Novak has an “incumbent advantage” that comes from running five times and higher levels of recognition — especially in the portion (about 53%) of current Assembly District 51 that was part of the old district.

WORT and Isthmus reporters conducted over-coffee interviews with Assembly District 51 residents. One Mount Horeb resident didn’t know Grabe was running; his friend said he had donated to her campaign. But a Dodgeville resident blamed Democrats for “manipulating” the new maps and planned to again vote for Novak. Grabe, in short, isn’t a shoo-in to win.

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com