Data Wonk

Republicans Are Killing Republicans

167,000 lives could have been saved in states opposed to vaccines.

By - Feb 16th, 2022 02:26 pm
2019 Novel Coronavirus. Image by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

2019 Novel Coronavirus. Image by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Last week’s column pointed out the considerable uncertainty currently surrounding the pandemic, particularly due to the recent surge of the omicron variant. Compared to earlier variants, including delta, omicron appears to be far more infectious but considerably less lethal.

Adding to the uncertainty are the early research results, some of which suggest that the vaccines are less effective against omicron. Finally, the CDC has not yet published its estimates of death rates with and without vaccination for the period beyond December 4, 2021. On December 4th, the delta variant was still dominant.

Despite this uncertainty, last week a group of blue states announced that they were ending or cutting back on their mask mandates. Several news reports suggested this decision reflects progress against the pandemic. No doubt it also reflects weariness with the measures used to reduce the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths due to the pandemic.

The graph below shows the percentage of each state’s residents that have died from COVID-19 since the start of last year. I chose January first of 2021 as the starting date because that was around the time when the highly effective vaccines started to become available. In comparison to 2020, more had been learned about the disease, how it spread, and what was effective in limiting its spread.

As a measure of partisan orientation of the states, I used the percentage of the two major parties’ presidential election vote that went to Joe Biden. Thus, states shown on the left are more Republican; those on the right more Democratic.

Finally, the states recently announcing the end of their mask mandates are shown with a box around their point. With the exception of Nevada (a competitive state), these states are strongly Democratic. They are in the North East or the Pacific coast. Again with exception of Nevada, they are among the states with the lowest death rates.

Deaths per capita since 1/1/2021 vs. partisan orientation of states

Deaths per capita since 1/1/2021 vs. partisan orientation of states

As the graph above shows, there is clearly a relationship between a state’s political partisan preference and its covid rate: the lower the state’s vote for Biden the higher the death rate tends to be. Consider the next chart which shows the number of deaths since the start of 2021 as a percentage of the population. The second column shows the death rate for the entire nation. On average, .0.167% of Americans died during this period.

The first column shows the average death rate in states where the Donald Trump vote in November 2021 was 60% or better. The fourth shows the average death rate where Biden got 60% or more. The third column shows the death rate for Wisconsin.

Deaths per capita 1/1/2021 to 2/7/2022

Deaths per capita 1/1/2021 to 2/7/2022

The next chart converts these death rates into deaths per capita. If every state had reduced its death rate to the blue state average, roughly 167,000 lives would have been saved during the period of slightly more than a year.

Total deaths nationally 1/1/2021 to 2/7/2022

Total deaths nationally 1/1/2021 to 2/7/2022

On average, residents of red states died of covid at a rate 65% greater than residents of blue states. A recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll asked people whether they are worried they will personally get seriously sick from the coronavirus. Of those in the sample who were vaccinated, 52% said yes, compared to 42% of the unvaccinated.

In reality the respondents had it exactly backwards. According to the most recent analysis from the CDC, the probability of an unvaccinated person dying from covid was 14-20 times higher than that of someone completely vaccinated.

Following the U. S. Supreme Court decision against Biden administration plans requiring that employees of large companies be vaccinated, Carhartt announced that it would continue the requirement. The manufacturer of clothing that is popular with blue color workers stated that it made the decision “as part of our long-standing commitment to workplace safety.” This announcement led to calls for a consumer boycott.

Such as this, according to Breitbart:

“Good luck implementing your tyranny, morons,” tweeted lawyer Jenna Ellis, who served as a senior legal adviser and counsel to former President Trump. “You picked the wrong demographic.

There is a strong market for vaccine skeptics, particularly those that can claim some technical expertise. One who has been particularly prominent recently is Robert Malone, appearing on numerous right-wing interview shows. Among his assertions:

Regarding the genetic COVID vaccines, the science is settled. They’re not working. They are not completely safe.

An article in the Atlantic suggests that Malone’s hostility to the vaccines stems from his belief that he has not been given proper credit for his early work on mRNA technology.

A substantial ecosystem has grown up around opposition to tools that can reduce sickness and death caused by the covid virus. For those intent on putting others at risk, it has often led to prosperity, generating donations, developing audiences for media enterprises, and offering a path forward for ambitious politicians. However, its effect on its true believers has been devastating.

More about the Coronavirus Pandemic

Read more about Coronavirus Pandemic here

Categories: Data Wonk, Health, Politics

3 thoughts on “Data Wonk: Republicans Are Killing Republicans”

  1. GodzillakingMKE says:

    Willfully ignorant to make a political point. They made their choice , I have zero sympathy.

  2. deansschultz@gmail.com says:

    This is not a surprise. I think the poverty rate graphs would show some of the same results. States with high poverty rates have higher death rates AND the vote goes to the Republicans. What a weird time. The previous respondent says, ” I have zero sympathy”. Yes, how can we have sympathy for those who make such strange decisions?? Perhaps the struggling lives of the impoverished should engender some sympathy??

  3. gerrybroderick says:

    Being gullible differs from being ‘willfully ignorant’. The majority of blame for unnecessary illness and death among conservative cultures lies primarily with right-wing media outlets that disseminate conspiracy theories to make a political points. The legions of right-wing sheep shouldn’t bare the total blame for their shepard’s willful manipulations.

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