State’s Past Votes Could Foretell 2020 Result

If you’re watching the election results come in Tuesday night — and likely well into Wednesday — and you’re wondering how Milwaukee and Wisconsin has voted in the past, here’s a rundown the last 20 years of presidential election results.

Both the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County historically are Democratic strongholds, even in years when Republican candidates win the state and or the presidency. Only once during the past 20 years has less than 70% of the city gone to a Democratic candidate — Al Gore in 2000 with 67.6% of the vote.

Still, some voting trends visible statewide also show up in Milwaukee.

Specifically, low voter enthusiasm. When turnout is low across the state, it’s usually low in Milwaukee. And, between 2000 and 2016, whenever turnout was lowest, third party voting went up, suggesting low approval of candidates running on the tickets for the two major parties.

In 2004, 2008, and 2012, third party candidates didn’t manage to get even 1% of the vote in the city, county or the state. But in 2000 and 2016, the two elections in recent years with the lowest turnout, third party candidates did much better. In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader won more than 3% of the vote in the city, county and state. And in 2016, Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson won 2.5% of the vote in the city, 3% in the county and 3.6% in the state. Green Party Candidate Jill Stein won just over 1% in the city, county and state.

In the last 20 years, former President Barack Obama is the only presidential candidate to win Wisconsin with a majority of votes. He won 56% in 2008 and 52% in 2012. President Donald Trump won the state with a plurality. That is, he had the highest number of votes, but fell short of a majority.

It is because Wisconsin, like most of the U.S., assigns its electoral votes based upon a plurality, not a majority, that in American politics third party candidates are historically described as “splitting the vote.” This is the result, statistically speaking, when third party votes reduce the probability that a major party candidate with similar views wins. It’s no coincidence that when Obama twice won with a majority of votes third party candidates didn’t even crack 1 percent.

Turnout and third party votes appear inversely correlated in recent elections. When turnout goes down, third party voting goes up. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 with fewer votes than Sen. Mitt Romney had in 2012 — when he lost. Voter turnout was down in the city, county and the state in 2016. More than 92,000 fewer Wisconsinites voted during that election than the previous one.

If history is any guide, the third party vote will be lower for this election as the turnout is expected to be very high in Wisconsin (along with the nation), perhaps hitting historic levels. Which suggests the winning candidate will win a majority, not a plurality of the vote in Wisconsin.

2016

City of Milwaukee

	Votes	% of Votes
Donald Trump	45,411	18.43
Hillary Clinton	188,657	76.55%
Gary Johnson	6,254	2.54%
Jill Stein	2,689	1.09%
Ballots Cast	247,836

 

Milwaukee County

	Votes
Donald Trump	125,846
Hillary Clinton	288,797
Gary Johnson	13,590
Jill Stein	4,529
Ballots Cast	440,247

 

State of Wisconsin 

	Votes	% of Votes
Donald Trump	1,405,284	47.22%
Hillary Clinton	1,382,536	46.45%
Gary Johnson	106,674	3.58%
Jill Stein	31,072	1.04%
Ballots Cast	2,976,150

2012

City of Milwaukee

	Votes	% of Votes
Barack Obama	227,384	79.27%
Mitt Romney	56,553	19.72%
Ballots Cast	288,459

 

Milwaukee County 

	Votes
Barack Obama	332,438
Mitt Romney	154,924
Ballots Cast	492,576

 

State of Wisconsin 

	Votes	% of Votes
Barack Obama	1,620,985	52.83%
Mitt Romney	1,407,966	45.89%
Ballots Cast	3,068,434

2008

City of Milwaukee

	Votes	% of Votes
Barack Obama	213,436	77.82%
John McCain	57,665	21.03
Ballots Cast	275,042

 

Milwaukee County 

	Votes
Barack Obama	319,819
John McCain	149,445
Ballots Cast	475,192

 

State of Wisconsin 

	Votes	% of Votes
Barack Obama	1,677,211	56.22%
John McCain	1,262,393	42.31%
Ballots Cast	2,983,417

2004

City of Milwaukee 

	Votes	% of Votes
George W. Bush	75,746	27.35%
John Kerry	198,907	71.83%
Ballots Cast	277,535

 

Milwaukee County 

	Votes
George W. Bush	180,287
John Kerry	297,653
Ballots Cast	482,236

 

State of Wisconsin

	Votes	% of Votes
George W. Bush	1,478,120	49.32%
John Kerry	1,489,504	49.7%
Ballots Cast	2,997,007

2000

City of Milwaukee 

	Votes	% of Votes
George W. Bush	69,075	28.21%
Al Gore	165,598	67.64%
Ralph Nader	8,062	3.29%
Ballots Cast	245,670

 

Milwaukee County

	Votes
George W. Bush	163,491
Al Gore	252,329
Ralph Nader	13,953
Ballots Cast	433,537

 

State of Wisconsin 

	Votes	% of Votes
George W. Bush	1,237,279	47.61%
Al Gore	1,242,987	47.83%
Ralph Nader	94,070	3.62%
Ballots Cast	2,598,607