Biden Up 9% in Final UW-Madison Poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump by 9 points among likely voters in Wisconsin, according to a poll released Monday by the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The poll, conducted Oct. 13-21, shows Biden with the support of 53 percent of likely Wisconsin voters, compared to 44 percent for Trump. Three percent of voters said they were planning to support another candidate or were undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent, which means Biden’s lead is slightly outside the margin of error.

The previous Elections Research Center poll, conducted in mid-September, showed Biden leading by 4 points among likely voters, with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

According to an Elections Research Center analysis, the increase in support for Biden in Wisconsin between September and October can be attributed to third party and undecided voters shifting their support to him, rather than to Trump.

“Trump’s support had held steady in each state over the past three months, closely mirroring his job approval ratings, which have hovered in the low 40s,” the analysis read. “The difference in the final days is that a larger share of undecided and potential minor party voters have come to support Biden.”

Undecided and third party voters played a large role in the 2016 election, with the majority breaking for Trump on Election Day.

The analysis also noted Biden has a “massive lead” among those who have already cast their ballots in Wisconsin.

According to the poll, 73 percent of people who said they have already voted reported casting their ballots for Biden, compared to 26 percent for Trump. Of those who have not yet voted, 39 percent said they plan to cast their ballot for Biden and 57 percent said they plan to vote for Trump.

Roughly 1.6 million people have already voted in Wisconsin, either by mail or through in-person early voting, according to Wisconsin Elections Commission statistics. There are about 3.5 million registered voters in the state.

The survey was the fourth and final one this election cycle from the Elections Research Center. The final Marquette University Law School poll of the cycle is expected Wednesday.

Final UW-Madison Poll Shows Biden With 9-Point Lead Over Trump In Wisconsin was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.