New Marquette Law School Poll national survey shows 40% rate abortion one of most important issues, with a larger percentage of Democrats than Republicans viewing it this way

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 40% of adults nationwide say abortion is one of the most important issues to them, while 39% say it is somewhat important, and 21% say it is not very or not at all important.

Table 1 shows the full set of responses on the importance of abortion as an issue.

Table 1: Importance of abortion issue, May 2022

Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
5/9-19/22	40	39	15	6

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s Supreme Court survey was conducted May 9-19, 2022, a week after a draft opinion that would overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion-rights precedent was leaked to the Politico news organization. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points.

A previous Marquette Law School Poll release yesterday, May 25, described other results of the new national survey; that release primarily focused on public opinion of the Supreme Court and of cases concerning abortion and other issues. This release provides further results of the same survey on national topics.

Table 2 shows the importance of abortion as an issue, by party identification. Democrats rank the issue as more important than do independents or Republicans. A quarter of Republicans and independents say abortion is not very or not at all important to them, while 14% of Democrats say this.

Table 2: Importance of abortion issue, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Republican	31	44	17	8
Independent	38	36	15	10
Democrat	48	37	12	2

Asked what public policy on abortion should be, 29% say abortion should be legal in all cases, 38% say legal in most cases, 24% say it should be illegal in most cases, and 8% say illegal in all cases.

Those who say abortion should be illegal in all cases are the most likely to say it is one of the most important issues to them, followed by those who say it should be legal in all cases. The middle categories, involving those who say abortion should be mostly legal or mostly illegal, have about half as many (or fewer) people who say the abortion issue is one of their most important issues as those in the other categories just described. The relationship between policy preference and opinion on importance of the issue is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Opinion on importance of abortion issue, by policy preference on abortion, May 2022

Policy preference on abortion	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Legal in all cases	60	30	5	4
Legal in most cases	24	46	25	5
Illegal in most cases	32	47	14	7
Illegal in all cases	67	20	5	7

While abortion policy is a highly polarizing issue among elected members of Congress and state legislatures, opinion is not as strongly divided by party among the public. Table 4 shows that, while substantial majorities of Democrats and independents say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a substantial minority of Republicans also say it should be legal always or mostly. A majority of Republicans say it should always or mostly be illegal.

Table 4: Policy preference on abortion, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
Republican	10	31	44	14
Independent	35	40	16	7
Democrat	44	43	10	3

Policy preferences are sensitive to the specific limitations proposed on abortion. With the potential for Roe to be overturned, several state legislatures have enacted or debated laws that would ban abortions (in most cases, with some exceptions) at various stages of pregnancy. This survey asked a series of questions about support for or opposition to bans based on these state proposals. Each question included an exception for “medical emergencies.”

The question asked:

Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?

The results for the five alternative policies are shown in Table 5. There is majority opposition to bans that would apply at any time or after 6 weeks, and an even divide on bans after 15 weeks. A majority favor bans after six months, and a majority oppose there being no restrictions on when a woman can obtain an abortion.

Table 5: Favor or oppose abortion bans, by when ban would take effect, May 2022

Ban when	Favor	Oppose
Ban at any time during pregnancy	27	72
Ban after 6 weeks	34	65
Ban after 15 weeks	50	49
Ban after 6 months	65	35
No restrictions at any point	39	60

Some states have considered legislation that would make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by traveling to a different state where abortion is legal. This policy is favored by 22% of respondents nationwide and is opposed by 78%.

Opinion on making out-of-state travel for abortions illegal is shown by party identification in Table 6.

Table 6: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Yes	No
Republican	32	68
Independent	19	81
Democrat	14	86

Enthusiasm to vote

Looking ahead to the November elections, 37% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, 31% are somewhat enthusiastic, 22% are not too enthusiastic, and 10% are not at all enthusiastic to vote this fall.

Enthusiasm to vote varies by party, with Republicans most likely to say they are very enthusiastic, trailed by Democrats. Independents are much less enthusiastic. Enthusiasm is shown in Table 7 (a) for all adults and in Table 7 (b) for registered voters only.

Table 7: Enthusiasm to vote, by party identification, May 2022

(a) All adults

Party ID	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	50	28	19	3
Independent	17	23	28	31
Democrat	34	37	22	7

(b) Registered voters only

Party ID	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	53	29	16	2
Independent	25	25	25	25
Democrat	39	37	21	2

Enthusiasm measured by opinion on the importance of the abortion issue is shown in Table 8 for all adults and for registered voters. There are too few respondents who say the abortion issue is not important at all to reliably estimate results for that group, so they have been combined with those who say abortion is not very important in this table.

Table 8: Enthusiasm to vote, by opinion on importance of abortion issue, May 2022

(a) All adults

Importance of abortion issue	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
One of the most important issues	44	27	20	8
Somewhat important	30	36	23	11
Not very or not at all important	35	28	24	13

(b) Registered voters only

Importance of abortion issue	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
One of the most important issues	51	27	17	5
Somewhat important	35	37	22	6
Not very or not at all important	43	31	19	7

Enthusiasm to vote is shown by abortion policy preference in Table 9. Enthusiasm to vote is higher among those opposed to abortion than among those who favor legal abortions.

Table 9: Enthusiasm to vote, by abortion policy preference, May 2022

(a) All adults

Abortion policy preference	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Legal in all cases	33	30	21	15
Legal in most cases	33	32	27	9
Illegal in most cases	44	32	16	8
Illegal in all cases	50	25	19	6

(b) Registered voters only

Abortion policy preference	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Legal in all cases	40	30	22	8
Legal in most cases	39	33	23	5
Illegal in most cases	48	33	13	5
Illegal in all cases	58	26	15	1

 

Confidence in 2020 election and enthusiasm to vote

The matter of confidence and doubt in the accuracy of the 2020 election results continues to divide Americans. Among all adults, 57% are very or somewhat confident that the results of the 2020 election were accurate, while 43% are not too or not at all confident of this. The trend in election confidence is shown in Table 10, showing that confidence dropped by 6 percentage points from March to May.

Table 10: Confidence and doubt in 2020 election accuracy, trend, Sept. 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Confident	Not confident
9/7-16/21	60	40
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	66	34
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	57	43

There are very large differences by partisanship, as shown in Table 11, with almost three-quarters of Republicans doubting the election result, nearly 90% of Democrats confident in the election accuracy, and independents evenly divided.

Table 11: Confidence in 2020 election accuracy, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Confident	Not confident
Republican	27	73
Independent	47	52
Democrat	89	11

Doubt about the accuracy of the 2020 election results is associated with higher enthusiasm to vote among Republicans, but with lower enthusiasm to vote among Democrats and independents (who are combined here to provide sufficient observations for the comparison). Table 12 (a) shows the relationship between doubt in the election and enthusiasm among Republicans, and Table 12 (b) shows the relationship among Democrats and independents.

Table 12: Enthusiasm to vote, by confidence or doubt in 2020 election, May 2022

(a) Republicans

Confidence or doubt	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Confident	36	35	23	5
Not confident	55	25	17	2

(b) Democrats and independents

Confidence or doubt	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Confident	34	35	21	10
Not confident	12	27	32	29

Vote choice and abortion policy

Respondents were asked:

Thinking about this year’s (2022) elections, if one candidate favors keeping abortion legal and widely available, and the other candidate favors strictly limiting abortion except to protect the mother’s life, which candidate would you support?

Among all respondents, 54% say they would support the candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, while 31% would support the candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion, The remaining 14% say the abortion issue would not matter to them.

The choice of candidates connected to positions on abortion is shown by party identification in Table 13. A majority of Republicans favor the candidate who would strictly limit abortions, while a similar majoriity of independents would favor the candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, as is also the case with a substantially larger majority of Democrats. There is broader salience of the issue among Democrats: Fewer Democrats say the abortion position of candidates would not matter to them than is the case for Republicans and independents.

Table 13: Candidate choice by party identification, May 2022

(a) All adults

Party ID	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	25	58	17
Independent	56	21	22
Democrat	81	12	7

(b) Registered voters only

Party ID	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	26	57	17
Independent	53	26	22
Democrat	83	9	7

Biden job approval

In the new Marquette Law School Poll nationwide survey, President Joe Biden’s job approval stands at 42% with disapproval at 57%. In March, approval was 44% and disapproval was 55%. The trend in Biden approval since July 2021, when the question was first asked, is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Biden job approval trend, July 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57

Favorability ratings

Favorability ratings of Biden, former President Donald Trump, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a likely candidate for president in 2024, are shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Favorability trends, 2021-2022

(a) Joe Biden

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	45	49	6
1/10-21/22	45	51	4
3/14-24/22	44	53	3
5/9-19/22	40	55	4

(b) Donald Trump

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	32	65	3
1/10-21/22	32	67	1
3/14-24/22	36	61	3
5/9-19/22	35	61	3

(c) Mike Pence

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	29	51	20
1/10-21/22	28	55	17
3/14-24/22	31	53	16
5/9-19/22	25	54	21

(d) Ron DeSantis

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	22	34	44
3/14-24/22	25	36	39
5/9-19/22	24	37	38

Favorability in May for each political figure, by party identification, is shown in Table 16, showing large differences by party. Independents are more likely to say they haven’t heard enough about Pence or DeSantis than are partisans of either party.

Table 16: Favorability by party identification, May 2022

(a) Joe Biden

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	7	91	2
Independent	33	58	7
Democrat	72	22	5

(b) Donald Trump

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	75	22	2
Independent	21	71	7
Democrat	6	91	3

(c) Mike Pence

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	49	33	18
Independent	11	48	41
Democrat	9	75	15

(d) Ron DeSantis

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	56	14	30
Independent	11	29	59
Democrat	2	61	37

Trump endorsements

Trump has endorsed candidates in state primaries across the country. Among Republicans, 49% say they are more likely to support a candidate whom Trump has endorsed, although almost as many, 40%, say his endorsement would make no difference in their vote. Another 11% say they would be less likely to vote for a Trump-backed candidate.

Almost half of independents, 46%, say a Trump endorsement would make no difference to them, and 41% say it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, with just 12% saying they would be more likely. Almost all Democrats, 87%, say they are less likely to support a candidate Trump endorses. These results are shown in Table 17.

Table 17: More or less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	More likely	Less likely	No difference
Republican	49	11	40
Independent	12	41	46
Democrat	5	87	8

Over 70% of each partisan category say they don’t know if Trump has endorsed a candidate in their state. Republicans and Democrats are almost equally likely to say Trump has endorsed a candidate, and independents are less likely to know of an endorsement.

Table 18: Think Trump has endorsed a state candidate, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Yes, has endorsed	No, has not endorsed	Don’t know if he has endorsed
Republican	22	6	71
Independent	13	7	80
Democrat	21	9	70

Based on data reported by Ballotpedia.org as of May 19, Trump has not endorsed a candidate in 13 states plus the District of Columbia, endorsed one candidate in 11 states, endorsed two candidates in 13 states, and endorsed three or more candidates in 13 states. Endorsements for governor, senator, U.S. House of Representative, and other state offices are counted in this total.

Combining the endorsement data with the survey responses shows that where Trump has given more endorsements, respondents are more likely to be aware he has endorsed candidates in the state, and in states he has not endorsed, they are least likely to think he has endorsed someone. Table 19 shows the percent of respondents who think Trump has made an endorsement, by the number of endorsements reported by Ballotpedia.org.

Table 19: Think Trump has endorsed a state candidate, by number of endorsements in the state (including D.C.), May 2022

Number of endorsements	Yes, has endorsed	No, has not endorsed	Don’t know if he has endorsed
None	4	11	84
One	9	10	81
Two	16	10	74
Three or more	34	3	62

Among Republicans, about half say they are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump, but this percentage does not vary significantly by the number of candidates that Trump has endorsed in the state, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: More or less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, by number of endorsements in the state, among Republicans only, May 2022

Number of endorsements	More likely	Less likely	No difference
None	55	6	38
One	53	10	37
Two	47	8	45
Three or more	46	14	40

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted May 9-19, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey that were focused on the Supreme Court were released one day ago (i.e., on May 24, 2022). That release is also available at the above link.

NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. While it is believed to be reliable, Urban Milwaukee does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.