New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little change in partisan divisions and motivations about voting following Supreme Court abortion decision; those favoring Roe’s overturning are more motivated to vote in November

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered by the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which had established a right to an abortion. There has been much speculation that this June decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, would change the November outlook.

Yet a comparison of the Marquette Law School Poll’s May and July national survey data finds few elements of change in motivation to vote or in vote choice, despite a substantial drop in public approval of the Court’s handling of its job and a majority of the public opposed to the Court’s decision in Dobbs.

Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance fell to 38% in July, down from 44% in May and 54% in March. In July, 36% favored the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and 64% opposed that decision, among those with an opinion. (Those particular and certain other data about public views of the Court from this July survey were released yesterday, July 20, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website; this release provides further results of the same survey on national topics.)

However, whether measured by enthusiasm about voting in November or the certainty of voting, there has been only a slight overall change in motivation among registered voters, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
5/9-19/22	43	32	19	6
7/5-12/22	45	26	22	7

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
5/9-19/22	63	18	16	2
7/5-12/22	65	16	12	7

The latest Marquette Law School Poll Supreme Court survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, shortly after the last decisions of the October 2021 Supreme Court term were released. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample includes 853 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.

The July results show that Republicans have slightly increased their advantage over Democrats in enthusiasm and projected turnout, compared to May, as shown in Table 2. In July, the percentage of Republicans very enthusiastic to vote rose 8 percentage points, while enthusiasm rose 3 percentage points among Democrats. Similarly, the percentage saying they are certain to vote in November rose 5 percentage points among Republicans but 2 percentage points among Democrats.

The enthusiasm gap between the parties is a substantial 18-percentage-point Republican advantage, while the certainty of voting shows a smaller 5-point Republican edge.

Table 2: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Party ID	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	5/9-19/22	55	31	12	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	63	25	10	2
Independent	5/9-19/22	34	28	26	12
Independent	7/5-12/22	33	23	33	11
Democrat	5/9-19/22	42	37	19	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	45	31	17	7

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Party ID	Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
Republican	5/9-19/22	72	18	9	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	77	11	9	3
Independent	5/9-19/22	51	20	24	4
Independent	7/5-12/22	50	21	16	13
Democrat	5/9-19/22	70	15	14	1
Democrat	7/5-12/22	72	14	10	2

There is also little change in enthusiasm or certainty of voting based on whether the respondent favors or opposes the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, as shown in Table 3. Among either those in favor or those opposed to overturning Roe, there was no change between May and July in the percentage who are very enthusiastic about voting. There were a very small increase in certainty of voting for those in favor of overturning Roe and a slight decline in certainty to vote for those opposed to overturning Roe.

Leaving aside the change: By either measure, enthusiasm or certainty of voting, those who favor the decision to overturn Roe are more motivated to vote in the fall elections.

Table 3: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, by favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Overturn Roe	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	60	28	10	2
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	60	19	18	3
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	40	32	22	5
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	40	28	23	9

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Overturn Roe	Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	74	14	11	0
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	76	13	6	4
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	66	20	11	2
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	63	16	13	8

Those saying abortion is one of the most important issues increased by only 3 percentage points from May to July, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Importance of the abortion issue, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
5/9-19/22	41	39	15	5
7/5-12/22	44	38	13	5

There were similarly small changes by partisanship, as shown in Table 5. Democrats are much more likely to rate abortion as one of the most important issues than are Republicans and independents, but there has been little change in opinion on importance of the issue since May.

Table 5: Importance of the abortion issue, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Republican	5/9-19/22	35	40	16	9
Republican	7/5-12/22	37	41	17	6
Independent	5/9-19/22	38	39	18	4
Independent	7/5-12/22	40	38	16	5
Democrat	5/9-19/22	50	39	9	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	54	35	8	3

A bare majority, statistically rounded to 50%, say they would vote for a candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, while 33% would vote for a candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion and 17% say the abortion issue would not matter to them. Table 6 shows little change in vote choice based on the abortion issue from May to July.

Table 6: Vote based on candidate abortion position, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Poll dates	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
5/9-19/22	54	32	14
7/5-12/22	50	33	17

Table 7 shows that vote preference has remained divided but stable, among partisan groups, while independents have become somewhat less supportive of candidates who support abortion rights, from May to July.

Table 7: Vote based on candidate abortion position, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	5/9-19/22	20	61	19
Republican	7/5-12/22	18	62	21
Independent	5/9-19/22	59	26	15
Independent	7/5-12/22	44	35	21
Democrat	5/9-19/22	83	11	5
Democrat	7/5-12/22	84	8	8

Preferences on abortion policy

Asked their preference for policy on abortion, 28% say abortion should be legal in all cases, 36% say legal in most cases, 27% say it should be illegal in most cases, and 8% say illegal in all cases. Here and in subsequent tables, the results are for all adults, rather than for only registered voters as above in discussing motivation to vote and vote choice.

Those who say abortion should be legal in all cases or who say it should be illegal in all cases are the most likely to say it is one of the most important issues to them, while those saying legal in most or illegal in most cases are both half as likely (as the “all” groups) to say it is one of the most important issues. The relationship between policy preference and importance of the issue is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Importance of abortion issue, by policy preference on abortion, among adults, July 2022

Policy on abortion	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Legal in all cases	63	30	4	3
Legal in most cases	31	46	17	5
Illegal in most cases	30	44	18	7
Illegal in all cases	64	27	3	3

There has been little change in preference for abortion policy by party identification since Roe was overturned on June 24. Table 9 shows policy preference, by partisan groups, in May and July. A majority of Republicans say it should be illegal in all or most cases, while majorities of independents and Democrats say it should be legal in all or most cases, with an especially large majority among Democrats. Support for legal abortion declined by 10 percentage points among independents from May to July.

Table 9: Policy preference on abortion, by party identification, among adults, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
Republican	5/9-19/22	12	27	46	15
Republican	7/5-12/22	11	23	47	18
Independent	5/9-19/22	30	42	20	7
Independent	7/5-12/22	24	38	30	7
Democrat	5/9-19/22	45	42	9	4
Democrat	7/5-12/22	48	44	7	1

Policy preferences are sensitive to the specific limitations proposed on abortion. Several state legislatures have enacted or debated laws that would ban abortions (with some exceptions) at various stages of pregnancy. The survey asked a series of questions about support for or opposition to bans along the lines of these state proposals. Each question included an exception for “medical emergencies.”

The question asked:

Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?

The results for the five alternative policies presented are shown in Table 10. There is majority opposition to a ban at all times (“any time during pregnancy” in table) or a ban after 6 weeks, and an even divide on a ban after 15 weeks. A majority favor a ban after six months, and a majority oppose abortions being legal at all times (“No restrictions at any point” in table). None of the differences between May and July are statistically significant.

Table 10: Favor or oppose abortion bans, by when ban would take effect, among adults, May-July 2022

Ban when	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Ban at any time during pregnancy	5/9-19/22	27	72
Ban at any time during pregnancy	7/5-12/22	30	69
Ban after 6 weeks	5/9-19/22	34	65
Ban after 6 weeks	7/5-12/22	40	59
Ban after 15 weeks	5/9-19/22	50	49
Ban after 15 weeks	7/5-12/22	53	46
Ban after 6 months	5/9-19/22	65	35
Ban after 6 months	7/5-12/22	66	33
No restrictions at any point	5/9-19/22	39	60
No restrictions at any point	7/5-12/22	41	58

Some states have considered legislation that would make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by traveling to a different state where abortion is legal. This policy is favored by 21% of respondents and is opposed by 78%. There has been little change on this, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, responses among adults, May-July 2022

Poll dates	Yes	No
5/9-19/22	22	78
7/5-12/22	21	78

Majorities of all partisan groups say states should not be able to restrict out-of-state travel to obtain abortions. There has been little change in opinion on this issue among partisan groups from May to July, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, by party identification, among adults, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Yes	No
Republican	5/9-19/22	34	66
Republican	7/5-12/22	31	69
Independent	5/9-19/22	18	81
Independent	7/5-12/22	20	80
Democrat	5/9-19/22	15	85
Democrat	7/5-12/22	16	84

The potential for states to make it illegal to get and fill prescriptions from out-of-state providers for medication that induces an abortion is favored by 26% and opposed by 73%. This question was not asked previously.

As with out-of-state travel for abortions, this possible legal restriction shows a sharp divide by party, as seen in Table 13, though a majority of each partisan group oppose such restrictions.

Table 13: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill a prescription from out-of-state providers for medication that will induce an abortion, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Yes	No
Republican	41	58
Independent	27	73
Democrat	13	87

January 6 Committee hearings

Among adults, 43% say they have heard a lot about the January 6 Committee hearings, 38% have heard a little, and 19% have heard nothing at all. For comparison, 81% have heard a lot about the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and 47% have heard a lot about the Court’s ruling that the Second Amendment includes the right to possess a firearm outside the home.

Table 14 shows that Democrats have been more attentive to the January 6 Committee hearings than have Republicans or independents, though a large majority of each group has heard at least “a little.”

Table 14: Heard about January 6 Committee hearings, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	35	48	17
Independent	37	38	25
Democrat	56	32	12

Fifty-two percent say that former President Donald Trump bears “a lot” of responsibility for the violence on January 6, while 18% say “a little” and 30% say he has no responsibility at all for the violence. Those who have heard a lot about the January 6 Committee hearings say Trump is more responsible than do those who have heard little or nothing about the hearings, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Trump responsibility for January 6 violence, by amount heard about the January 6 Committee hearings, among adults, July 2022

Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	A lot of responsibility	A little responsibility	None at all
A lot	68	9	22
A little or none	40	25	35

While partisans differ in their attention to the hearings, and in their views of Trump, those who have heard a lot about the hearings assign greater responsibility for violence to Trump than do those who have heard less, though the partisan gap remains very large, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Trump responsibility for January 6 violence, by amount heard about the January 6 Committee hearings and by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	A lot of responsibility	A little responsibility	None at all
Republican	A lot	17	26	57
Republican	A little or none	6	26	68
Independent	A lot	66	7	27
Independent	A little or none	39	32	30
Democrat	A lot	95	3	0
Democrat	A little or none	81	10	10

The public is evenly divided on the evidence presented by the January 6 Committee, with 52% saying it has been convincing and 48% saying it has not been convincing. Partisan differences are quite large in this case, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Has evidence presented in January 6 Committee hearings been convincing, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
Republican	15	85
Independent	49	50
Democrat	83	16

As with views of Trump’s responsibility, those who have heard a lot about the hearings are more likely to say the evidence is convincing, in every partisan group, though the partisan differences remain large, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Has evidence presented in January 6 Committee hearings been convincing, by party identification and by how much heard about hearings, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
Republican	A lot	21	79
Republican	A little or none	12	88
Independent	A lot	65	35
Independent	A little or none	40	60
Democrat	A lot	95	4
Democrat	A little or none	68	32

There has been little net change in favorability ratings of Trump since the hearings began. In July, 34% had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 35% who were favorable in May. There is little difference in favorability among partisans based on how much they have heard of the hearings, though independents who have heard a lot are somewhat less favorable to Trump as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Favorable or unfavorable opinions of Donald Trump, by party identification and by how much heard about January 6 Committee hearings, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	A lot	80	20	1
Republican	A little or none	81	15	4
Independent	A lot	23	76	1
Independent	A little or none	31	60	9
Democrat	A lot	3	95	1
Democrat	A little or none	9	88	2

Thirty-four percent in July say they would like Trump to run again for president, little changed from 33% in May.

Biden job approval

Approval of how President Joe Biden is handling his job as president has declined in July to 36%, down from 42% in May. This is the lowest approval for Biden in the Marquette Law School Poll national surveys. The full trend of Biden approval is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Approval of Biden job performance, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64

Biden has seen approval ratings decline among Democrats and especially among independents, while Republicans have maintained high levels of disapproval.

Table 21: Approval of Biden job performance, by party identification, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	7/16-26/21	16	84
Republican	9/7-16/21	9	90
Republican	11/1-10/21	17	82
Republican	1/10-21/22	9	91
Republican	3/14-24/22	8	92
Republican	5/9-19/22	7	92
Republican	7/5-12/22	3	96
Independent	7/16-26/21	57	43
Independent	9/7-16/21	43	57
Independent	11/1-10/21	43	57
Independent	1/10-21/22	42	57
Independent	3/14-24/22	37	63
Independent	5/9-19/22	40	59
Independent	7/5-12/22	25	74
Democrat	7/16-26/21	96	3
Democrat	9/7-16/21	89	11
Democrat	11/1-10/21	83	16
Democrat	1/10-21/22	83	17
Democrat	3/14-24/22	86	13
Democrat	5/9-19/22	78	21
Democrat	7/5-12/22	75	25

Biden’s approval rating has also declined among white, Black, and Hispanic respondents, as shown in Table 22. The table demonstrates a steady decline among white and Black respondents since July 2021. Among Hispanic respondents, approval remained relatively stable until this survey, dropping sharply in July 2022, to 37%.

Table 22: Approval of Biden job performance, by race and Hispanic origin, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Race and Hispanic origin	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
White	7/16-26/21	50	50
White	9/7-16/21	40	60
White	11/1-10/21	41	58
White	1/10-21/22	40	60
White	3/14-24/22	40	60
White	5/9-19/22	34	65
White	7/5-12/22	31	68
Black	7/16-26/21	88	10
Black	9/7-16/21	74	26
Black	11/1-10/21	68	32
Black	1/10-21/22	57	41
Black	3/14-24/22	56	43
Black	5/9-19/22	59	41
Black	7/5-12/22	51	49
Hispanic	7/16-26/21	56	44
Hispanic	9/7-16/21	54	46
Hispanic	11/1-10/21	51	49
Hispanic	1/10-21/22	56	43
Hispanic	3/14-24/22	51	48
Hispanic	5/9-19/22	56	41
Hispanic	7/5-12/22	37	63

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.

NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. It has not been verified for its accuracy or completeness.