Crowley Is Only One Who Could Beat Hong

County Executive David Crowley at Coggs Center Groundbreaking. Photo by Jeramey Jannene.

It’s decision time for Democrats.

There’s one week left in the primary for governor and it’s clearly a two-person race between the front-runner, state Rep. Francesca Hong, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

The State Navigate poll released on July 28 found Hong far ahead with 44%, Crowley second at 15%, Barnes with 14% and Brennan and Kelda Roys both at 4%. The Marquette Poll, which is probably more accurate, was released a day later and showed Hong at 38%, Barnes at 16%, Crowley at 7% and Brennan and Roys tied at 2%. With Barnes dropping out of the race, Crowley is clearly in second place. Brennan and Roys have barely registered in poll after poll and have never shown any momentum in this race. Yes, both did well in the candidate debate, but not many people watch debates or make a decision based on them.

Then there’s the fact that Crowley has been endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, Mayor Cavalier Johnson and many other Democratic officials, which has brought more momentum to his campaign. Compare the excitement of this recent ad by Crowley with the one released by Brennan, where he lumbers down the street and offers a tepid message that he will be a “governor for us.” Brennan is a nice guy and that’s come through in his ads, but not much else. At a time when Democrats are dying for a fighter, why would they choose him?

The latest Marquette poll found that 34% of Democratic primary voters haven’t made up their minds, which leaves a lot of voters left for Crowley to convince, and the Evers endorsement will help. Sixty-two percent of respondents said they have heard of Evers’ endorsement of Crowley and 36% said this makes them more likely to support Crowley.

Then there is the impact of Barnes dropping out: He had 16% of the vote in the poll and that’s now up for grabs. The poll showed Hong’s support was heaviest with very liberal and liberal voters, while Barnes and Crowley had the most support from liberal and moderate conservative voters, suggesting most are likely to switch from Barnes to Crowley. The fact that both are Black candidates based in Milwaukee might also make a switch to Crowley more likely.

The endorsement of Crowley by Evers and other top Democrats could be a double-edged sword in this primary: it opens the door to Hong arguing Crowley is the establishment candidate. But the fact that Crowley grew up in the 53206 ZIP code, one of the poorest and most segregated areas in the nation, makes that claim a little harder to stick.

Indeed, from the time he took over as the county executive, Crowley has made “equity” for all a part of every funding and programmatic decision, including building affordable housing in the suburbs, something that’s long been fiercely opposed in metro Milwaukee. Yet he has done this in such a friendly and non-threatening way, always searching for partnerships, that he has overcome opposition.

No one in the primary, including Brennan, has nearly as much experience running a government as Crowley. He has run one of the largest and most financially distressed governments in the state for nearly six years with smart budgeting decisions, while working two years to get the Republican-run state Legislature to approve a higher sales tax for Milwaukee County, which helped save it from bankruptcy.

Can Crowley win the general election? There is this idea openly expressed by some Democrats that a Black man can’t win a statewide race in Wisconsin. Except that Barack Obama won the state twice. Is Crowley as effective a campaigner as Obama? Those who’ve met him know Crowley is a contagious optimist, a happy warrior with a great smile, and with his glasses perhaps conveys some of that intellectual quality Obama had.

The Marquette poll found that 67% of respondents still haven’t heard enough about Crowley to have an opinion. Should he manage to win the primary it will be an upset victory that will give his campaign tremendous momentum. He will then have three months for voters to get to know him, and he is easy to like. He was not strong in the Democratic debate, but in a one-on-one match against Republican Tom Tiffany he will have more time to win people over. Moreover, he comes without all the baggage Hong will bring to the general election.

As Republican statements have made clear, they view Hong as the most beatable Democratic opponent. She will be attacked for proposing to abolish the police, legalize prostitution, abolish the U.S. Senate, cancel Thanksgiving and more than double the top rate for income taxpayers. She now backs a much lower tax hike and tried to walk back her past statements on the police but has had problems doing so, as in this interview with Dana Bash on CNN.

The case for Hong was made by Brian Fraley, who writes for the conservative Dairyland Sentinel: “Trump won Wisconsin twice by convincing working-class voters that elites rigged the game against them and that he shared their anger and would change the broken system. Francesca Hong is betting she can do the exact same thing from the left.”

But Trump had a unique, never-before-seen ability to shrug off negative attacks. It remains to be seen how Hong will handle this. A general election that pits Hong against Tiffany will be a shootout between candidates at the far end of their respective parties. By contrast, Tiffany, one of America’s most conservative members of Congress, would look very extreme against Crowley.

The admirable thing about Hong is her passion. But Crowley is passionate, too. He hasn’t forgotten what it’s like to grow up in dire poverty. But he’s learned that passionate declarations don’t get the job done. You have to work and build a consensus to accomplish change and it’s not easy. As he’s proven at the county, he is up to the job.