Justice Department Announces ATF’s Publication of Final Volume of National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment

WASHINGTON – The Justice Department today released the ATF’s publication of Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms: NFCTA Updates, New Analysis, and Policy Recommendations , the fourth and final volume of the National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA). This landmark series represents the most thorough research, analysis, and examination ever of firearms commerce and how firearms enter illegal markets and fall into the wrong hands.

In April 2021, President Biden and Attorney General Merrick B. Garland directed the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to lead a research group in conducting a comprehensive study of criminal gun trafficking — defined as the intentional movement of firearms into the illegal market for a criminal purpose or possession. This directive acknowledged the urgent need for data-driven strategies to curb gun violence and illegal gun trafficking across the nation.

Volume IV, compiled after years of research by leading experts from both law enforcement and academia, delivers updated findings and trends that highlight how firearms reach criminal actors. It also underscores the critical role ATF and its partners play in disrupting these networks through its cutting-edge Crime Gun Intelligence — the free tools ATF provides to state, local, Tribal and federal law enforcement partners to help them prevent shootings, catch shooters, and break shooting cycles.

“This final volume of the NFCTA concludes the most comprehensive look at America’s crime gun data in over two decades and confirms that ATF’s advanced intelligence tools are vital to helping law enforcement nationwide solve gun crimes and take shooters off the streets,” said Attorney General Garland. “Expanded use of ATF’s crime gun tracing and National Integrated Ballistic Information Network has provided more investigative leads than ever on violent gun crimes, enhanced strategic intelligence on violent gangs, and improved the apprehension and prosecution of violent criminals. This report reminds us of the importance of our work, and I am grateful to the extraordinary professionals of the ATF who put their lives on the line to help keep our communities safe.”

“From conducting enhanced background checks to stopping firearms trafficking by cartels, the Department has prioritized addressing the most significant drivers of violent crime and identifying emerging threats to our communities,” said Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. “This report is further evidence that to continue our historic progress against violent crime, we need to bring more crime gun intelligence to more law enforcement agencies, in more jurisdictions, more quickly than ever before.”

“At ATF, we know that we cannot successfully address the threat of gun violence in this nation without the best and most current information about the problem,” said ATF Director Steven Dettelbach. “For that reason, it is a privilege to announce Volume IV of the National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA): Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms: NFCTA Updates, New Analysis, and Policy Recommendations. This independent expert report is an unprecedented, data-driven analysis critical to fighting violent crime. At its core, Vol. IV helps anyone who looks at the facts to identify how criminals get their guns, what type of guns they seek, and where and how often they use them. While this report is a repository of invaluable information, the report’s most significant finding is that background checks are a crucial tool to help prevent felons, traffickers, and other dangerous people from arming themselves and hurting others. While the decision about whether to expand background checks is certainly up to policy makers, this report’s immense data and expert analysis shows conclusively that background checks save lives — period.”

Volume IV’s key highlights include:

• Surge in Privately Made Firearms (PMFs). Between 2017 and 2023, 92,702 suspected PMFs — untraceable “ghost guns” that are obtained without background checks and do not contain serial numbers — were recovered and reported. The number of PMFs recovered in crimes surged nearly 1,600% (from 1,629 to 27,490) with nearly 1,700 connected homicides and over 4,000 linked to other violent crimes. Miscellaneous firearms are predominantly firearm frames and receivers manufactured and sold before being assembled into an operational firearm. Between 2000 and 2022, annual miscellaneous firearms manufacturing increased nearly 6,600% with the bulk of this growth taking place in the last 10 years. Miscellaneous firearm manufacturing then decreased by 36% between 2022 and 2023.
• Rise Machinegun Conversion Devices. Recoveries of deadly machinegun conversion devices (MCDs), which are small, easily concealed devices that transform a semi-automatic firearm into an illegal machinegun in seconds, increased 784% between 2019 and 2023. In September 2024, the Deputy Attorney General launched a department-wide ANTI-MCD Task Force, which is chaired by ATF and a U.S. Attorney. The Task Force is a concerted effort to address this problem.
• ATF’s Crime Gun Intelligence Tools Help Police to Save Lives and their Use Should be Expanded and Fully Funded. ATF’s advanced intelligence tools — including ballistics evidence processing linking disparate shootings using the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) and crime gun tracing (eTrace) — are pivotal in helping law enforcement nationwide solve gun crimes and take shooters off the streets before they kill again:
  • Crime Gun Tracing: From 2017 to 2023, crime gun trace requests have increased by 52%. Of the nearly 1.3 million trace requests between 2022 and 2023, nearly 56% had a different purchaser than the possessor and 46% required the use of “out-of-business” records. This emphasizes the need to prevent firearms trafficking networks, which often begin with purchases in the legal market.
  • Ballistics Evidence: As of December 2023, ATF’s NIBIN included 6.5 million entries of ballistic evidence, generating over 1,060,000 investigative leads provided to ATF’s federal, state, local, Tribal, territorial, and international law enforcement partners. In recent years, the number of leads provided has been over 200,000 annually.
  • Time to Crime (TTC) Decreased by 30%: The median TTC decreased almost 31% from 2017 (4.2 years) to 2023 (2.9 years). Crime guns associated with a short TTC are an indicator of firearm trafficking. Thus, the evidence supports that as lawful firearms sales have increased, so has illegal gun trafficking.
  • Multiple Shootings: Between 2019 and 2023, of the more than 828,000 pistols recovered and traced, NIBIN identified that 14% were used in more than one shooting, representing 191,313 different shooting events. Moreover, most of these crime guns had a first shooting within three years from their last known purchase, indicating that violent gun offenders were more quickly using firearms diverted from lawful commerce in shootings.
  • Stolen Firearms: Nearly 1.1 million firearms were reported stolen between 2019 and 2023, with thefts from private citizens accounting for 95% of these reports. Pistols reported stolen from a federal firearms licensee or an interstate shipment present a dangerous trend: they were used in a shooting more than one year faster than non-stolen pistols. The median time to first shooting for stolen pistols was 258 days.
  • Multiple Sales: From 2017 to 2023, there was a 102% increase in crime guns being traced to a multiple sale transaction, meaning, in just five years, it became twice as common for a multiple firearm sale to include a gun later recovered at a crime scene.

• Firearms Trafficking Across the Southern Border and Supporting ATF’s Efforts to Fight It. Volume IV also highlights firearms trafficking trends from the United States to Mexico, showing a 63% increase tracing of crime guns recovered in Mexico between 2017 and 2023.
  • Source States: Although crime guns recovered in Mexico increasingly originate from all states, in 2023, the majority of traced firearms recovered in Mexico came from Texas (43%), Arizona (22%), and California (9%).
  • Cartels are Arming Themselves Through U.S. Trafficking Channels: Five United States to Mexico pipelines accounted for 32% of all recovered crime guns traced to a purchaser. The Arizona to Sonora pipeline was the most dominant, followed by Texas to Tamaulipas, Texas to Nuevo León, Texas to Chihuahua, and Texas to Guanajuato. 82% of traced Mexico crime guns were recovered in a state with a dominant presence of both or either the Sinaloa or Jalisco New Generation Cartels.
  • Successful Interdictions can have an Impact, if Properly Funded: Between 2017 and 2021, ATF initiated 1,011 investigations of firearms trafficking from the United States to Mexico in which 1,082 crime guns were recovered and traced to a purchaser. Nearly 92% of these crime guns were recovered in the United State, prior to diversion to Mexico. In 2023, ATF Southbound interdictions rose 86% from the prior year. As this report makes clear, increased resources could help ATF expand its operational efforts along the border.
• Firearms Manufacturing and Sales. Volume IV highlights trends in manufacturing and sales of firearms, including:
  • Firearm Production Far Outpaced Population Growth: Between 2000 and 2023, the number of firearms manufactured per 100,000 people increased by 113%, while the United States population grew by only 19%.
  • Growth in Silencers: The manufacturing of firearm suppressors rose by over 8,000% between 2000 and 2023. Silencers now account from 83% of all National Firearms Act-regulated manufacturing.
  • Over 100-Million Firearms Sold from FFL’s Alone: Based on the estimated minimum sales volume, between 2017 and 2023, federal licensees transferred at least 106,763,004 firearms to the public.
• Recommendations for Action. Volume IV underscores the urgent need for action to curb firearms trafficking trends, including by:
  • Expand Background Checks: Expanded background checks would save lives. Data clearly shows that such checks limit the opportunities dangerous, prohibited persons have to acquire firearms. There are several means by which this could be accomplished, including increasing ATF’s funding to investigate illegal trafficking accomplished by those not completing currently required background checks, prosecuting and securing appropriate sentences for unlicensed dealers who violate current laws, or examining federal and state-level background check laws to assess their effectiveness and the need for their expansion.
  • Enhanced Accountability in Law Enforcement Firearm Resales: Law enforcement agencies should evaluate their discretionary resale practices, which too often result in firearms being used in subsequent crimes — with over 25,000 firearms previously in the possession of law enforcement ending up at crime scenes between 2019 and 2023 alone. In considering whether to adopt a mandatory destruction policy, such as the one recommended by the International Association of Chiefs of Police, law enforcement agencies should consider distinguishing policies that allow law enforcement officers to purchase their issued service weapons versus policies governing the sale of weapons to the general public.
  • Strengthen and Expand ATF’s Crime Gun Intelligence: As of 2024, eTrace and NIBIN were used by approximately 55% and 67% of law enforcement agencies nationwide, respectively. Funding expanded and comprehensive the use of ATF’s eTrace and NIBIN tools by ATF and its partner law enforcement agencies will provide more investigative leads on violent gun crimes, enhanced strategic intelligence on violent gangs and other criminally active groups, and improve the apprehension and prosecution of violent gun criminals. Increased funding would improve these results by allowing ATF to provide law enforcement a single, automated platform with these tools.

In April 2024, the Department issued Volume III of the NFCTA, Firearm Trafficking Investigations, which examines 9,708 closed ATF firearm trafficking investigations initiated between CY 2017 and 2021.

In February 2023, the Department issued Volume II of the NFCTA, Crime Gun Intelligence and Analysis, which presents and analyzes data on crime guns (firearms used in crime) recovered between 2017 and 2021. The analysis reinforces the critical importance of ATF’s unique crime gun tracing authority and highlights the value of data from ATF’s NIBIN program.

In May 2022, the Department issued Volume I of the NFCTA, Firearms in Commerce, which presents and analyzes data collected by ATF and other federal agencies related to the manufacture, exportation, and importation of firearms.

To produce the NFCTA, the ATF assembled and led a team of independent subject experts from current and former law enforcement, academia, and related fields. Although ATF issues a variety of public and law enforcement reports and bulletins regarding firearm commerce, trafficking, and related issues every year, it has not undertaken a joint academic study close to the scale of the NFCTA in more than 20 years.

NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. While it is believed to be reliable, Urban Milwaukee does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.