Republicans Retain Majority in Wisconsin Assembly

The Wisconsin Assembly Chambers has an abundance of artistic detail maintained by decorative painters and conservation technicians Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023, at the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wis. Angela Major/WPR

Wisconsin Republicans have retained control of the state Assembly, hanging on to a majority in the chamber for another two years.

The outcome was hardly a given for Republicans because this was the first year they were running on new legislative maps that were drawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and passed by GOP lawmakers under pressure from the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s new liberal majority.

Unlike the Republican-drawn maps that preceded them, the new district lines gave either party a realistic shot at winning the Assembly. This year, Republicans had the upper hand.

All 99 Assembly seats were up for election, but both parties were focused on around a dozen or so competitive seats. Some of those districts are split so evenly that, two years ago, they would have voted for both Evers and Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.

In the state Senate, where only half of all seats are up for election every two-years, Republicans retained their majority, but Democrats made gains that could set up a winner-takes-all battle for state government in 2026.

Democrats started the election cycle deep in the minority in the Assembly, where Republicans held a 64-34 seat advantage with one Democratic seat currently vacant.

Democrats chipped away at that margin, but as of about 4:45 a.m. Wednesday, the Associated Press had declared Republicans the winner in 53 of the Assembly’s 99 districts with several others too close to call. Here’s how Republicans maintained their majority.

Most GOP incumbents fend off challengers in competitive districts

The fight for the Assembly focused on competitive districts, including several where current Republican lawmakers were running.

In the 51st Assembly District, Republican Rep. Todd Novak of Dodgeville defeated Democrat Elizabeth Grabe of Mount Horeb by about 52-48 percent, according to unofficial numbers from the Associated Press. While the new 51st leans Democratic, Novak is a well-known incumbent who has represented the area for 12 years.

In the 61st Assembly District in southeast Wisconsin, Republican Rep. Bob Donovan of Greenfield defeated Democrat LuAnn Bird of Hales Corners by about a 3 percentage point margin. Donovan previously represented the 84th Assembly District. The campaign between Bird and Donovan was among the most expensive Assembly races in Wisconsin.

In the 85th Assembly District in central Wisconsin, Republican Rep. Patrick Snyder of Schofield defeated Democrat Yee Leng Xiong of Weston 53-47 percent. Xiong will was trying to become the Legislature’s first Hmong representative. Snyder was drawn out of his old district but rented an apartment in the new one and vowed to move there if he won.

In the 92nd Assembly District, Republican Rep. Clint Moses of Menomonie defeated Democrat Joe Plouff, also of Menomonie. The east-west shape of the new district mixes in part of Eau Claire with more rural areas.

In the 21st Assembly District, Republican Rep. Jessie Rodriguez of Oak Creek was declared by winner by AP at 4:37 a.m. over Democrat David Marstellar of Milwaukee. The two candidates were separated by just 18 votes out of more than 20,000 cast.

Democrats prevailed in the 26th Assembly District in Sheboygan, where Joe Sheehan defeated Republican Rep. Amy Binsfeld by about a 3 percent margin. Binsfeld previously represented the 27th Assembly District. Under the old GOP map, Sheboygan was split into multiple districts, but the new map puts the city in a single district, giving it a slight Democratic lean.

Democratic lawmakers appear to hold two competitive western Wisconsin seats

The new map created two western Wisconsin districts that put Democratic incumbents on defense.

In the 91st Assembly District, Democratic Rep. Jodi Emerson of Eau Claire defeated Republican Michele Magadance Skinner of Altoona by about a 3 percent margin. While Emerson’s district still leaned Democratic under the new map, it was far less of a safe bet than her old seat.

In the 94th Assembly District in Onalaska, one of the most competitive in the state, Democratic Rep. Steve Doyle narrowly led Republican Ryan Huebsch with nearly all the votes counted. Even though Evers drew the new maps, Doyle’s district had a Republican lean, according to an analysis by Marquette University. The race was a rematch of their 2022 campaign.

Parties split fight for open seats

That left a few of seats where, through a combination of redistricting and retirements, there were no incumbent lawmakers.

They included two closely-divided districts in the Green Bay area. In the 89th Assembly District, which includes the city of Green Bay, Democrat Ryan Spaude defeated Republican Patrick Buckley by an almost 3 percent margin. The swing district would have been won by President Joe Biden in 2020 and former President Trump in 2016.

And in the 88th Assembly District, Republican Benjamin Franklin of De Pere was leading Democrat Christy Welch, also of De Pere, with nearly all votes counted. The 88th would have been won by Evers and Johnson in 2022.

In the 53rd Assembly District in Neenah, Republican Dean Kaufert led where Democrat Duane Shukoski with roughly 80 percent of votes counted. While Kaufert wasn’t an incumbent, he had previously represented Neenah in the Assembly from 1991 to 2015, and was the city’s mayor from 2014 to 2022.

Several Republican districts became strongly Democratic under the new map

In some cases, the district numbers under the new map bore little resemblance to the old map. That resulted in about eight seats held by Republicans in 2022 where the GOP had little chance of winning in 2024. They were:

• The 73rd Assembly District, where Democrat Angela Stroud of Ashland defeated Republican Frank Kostka, also of Ashland.
• The 62nd Assembly District, where Democrat Angelina Cruz of Racine ran unopposed.
• The 50th Assembly District, where Democrat Jenna Jacobson of Oregon defeated Republican Rich Johnson of New Glarus.
• The 42nd Assembly District, where Democrat Maureen McCarville of DeForest defeated Republican Rebecca Witherspoon, also of DeForest.
• The 52nd Assembly District in Appleton, where Democratic Rep. Lee Snodgrass defeated Republican Chad Cooke. Snodgrass previously represented the 57th Assembly District.
• The 13th Assembly District, where Wauwatosa Democratic Rep. Robyn Vining defeated Republican Tom Michalski of Elm Grove. Vining previously represented the 14th Assembly District.
• The 96th Assembly District, where Democrat Tarah Johnson of La Crosse defeated Loren Oldenburg of Viroqua.
• The 93rd Assembly District, where Democrat Christian Phelps defeated Republican James Rolbiecki, both of Eau Claire.
• The 40th Assembly District, where Democrat Karen DeSanto of Baraboo defeated Republican Jerry Helmer of Prairie du Sac.

Just one seat changed from strongly Democratic to strongly Republican under the new map — the 57th Assembly District previously held by Snodgrass. In that district, Republican Rep. Kevin Petersen of Waupaca defeated Democrat Ruth Caves of Wild Rose. Petersen previously represented the 40th Assembly District.

View detailed results for all 99 Assembly races.

Republicans retain majority in Wisconsin Assembly was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.