6 Districts Will Decide Which Party Controls Wisconsin Assembly

State Assembly candidates Republican state Rep. Todd Novak, top left, Democrat Ben Gruber, bottom left, Republican state Rep. Ben Franklin, top middle, Democrat Brandy Tollefson, bottom middle, Republican state Rep. Bob Donovan, top right, and Democrat Ben Brist, bottom right. Source: Candidate campaigns and Hope Kirwan/WPR

Every vote counts, but residents in a handful of Wisconsin Assembly districts will have more say than most when it comes to deciding who controls state government next year.

All 99 Assembly seats are up for election every two years. But for most of the past two decades, Republican-drawn legislative maps gave the GOP a stronghold on the chamber.

That changed under new, competitive legislative maps in 2024, when Democrats flipped 10 seats even as Republicans maintained their majority.

This year, in a cycle that is widely expected to favor Democrats, either party could plausibly win control of the Assembly for the first time in well over a decade.

Republicans head into this election with a 54-45 GOP majority, meaning Democrats would have to flip five seats to capture a majority.

To get there, they’ll likely need to defeat a few Republicans with long records of defying the odds. Here are a few of the top races.

Jump to the 61st Assembly District, 51st Assembly District, 88th Assembly District and other districts to watch.

In the Milwaukee suburbs: Republican Bob Donovan vs. Democrat Ben Brist

Republican state Rep. Bob Donovan, left, and his Democratic challenger Ben Brist. Both are vying for a seat in the 61st Assembly District. Source: Donovan and Brist campaigns

The Green Bay Packers were into the first quarter of their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a recent Sunday when state Rep. Bob Donovan walked into McKiernan’s Irish Pub & Grill.

The full bar quickly turned its attention from the televisions to the longtime southside Milwaukee Republican, who has a wall dedicated to him in the bar.

At McKiernan’s, Donovan, 70, is a legend. Behind the bar is a framed plaque that reads “The Mother of All Permits.” Donovan issued it to Gene McKiernan in 2010, when the bar owner was tired of getting calls from city inspectors asking him to complete more tasks before being allowed to open.

“I used to say I was trying to address concerns before they become full-blown problems, and so yeah, I’m proud of my record,” Donovan said.

A plaque hangs in McKiernan’s Tavern in Milwaukee. The owner says Republican Bob Donovan helped the business get up and running when he was a Milwaukee alder in 2010. Corrine Hess/WPR

Donovan is one of a handful of Republicans who’ve outperformed expectations in past elections but face more daunting challenges in 2026. President Donald Trump’s record-low approval rating is expected to hurt Republicans’ chances in races up and down the ballot across the country.

But if Donovan is worried about his chances this year in Wisconsin’s 61st Assembly District, he doesn’t show it.

“Whenever you’re in public service, some people are going to like you, some people aren’t, and you just have to have the courage of your convictions,” Donovan said.

His Democratic challenger, Ben Brist, 32, concedes that Donovan is well-known, but he says people are tired of his approach to politics.

“People know his name, and whether they like him or don’t like him, or know him personally or don’t, they know his name, and they know he’s the old southsider,” Brist said. “But what they don’t know is how radical he is. And about the way he’s protected and supported a very conservative Republican agenda in the Republican Legislature.”

Brist, who won a three-way Democratic primary in August, is an Army veteran who served seven years on active duty as an officer in the paratroopers. While in graduate school, he interned with Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

Brist says he decided to run for state office because it should be easier for young families to “put down roots” in Wisconsin and for retired adults to stay here.

“I think there are people that are mad, and they have a right to be mad,” Brist said. “I’ve met retired people who have come out of retirement and had to go back to work because they can’t keep up with the cost of living.”

Donovan, who spent 20 years as a Milwaukee alder before being first elected to the Assembly in 2022, has the financial backing of the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee. So far, the committee has given him about $1.3 million

Brist says that puts him at a monetary disadvantage, but it has also gotten the political newcomer out in front of more voters.

“They’re spending a ton of money in this race,” Brist said of Republicans, “I think part of it is they see we have a real opportunity to flip this seat … So they’re trying to drown it out with money and TV ads. We are out here seven days a week, actually meeting people.”

Donovan says he has always been a conservative, saying he has great respect for law enforcement and thinks America is the greatest country on earth. He concedes being labeled a “conservative” could hurt him at the polls this year, but he’s not about to change his approach now.

“What happens, happens, and if I win, I’m excited about the opportunity to continue,” Donovan said. “If I lose, I figure God has something else planned for me. So we’ll see how things turn out on Nov. 3.”

In southwestern Wisconsin: Republican Todd Novak vs. Democrat Ben Gruber

Republican state Rep. Todd Novak, left, and his Democratic challenger Ben Gruber. Both are vying for a seat in the 51st Assembly District. Source: Novak campaign and Hope Kirwan/WPR

The 51st Assembly District is a largely rural part of southwest Wisconsin, covering Iowa, Lafayette, and parts of Grant and Dane counties.

That can make talking to voters a challenge. But it hasn’t stopped political newcomer Ben Gruber from hitting the road in his 1980s pickup truck to knock on doors.

“Out here, people just feel like their voices haven’t been heard,” Gruber said while navigating country roads outside of Muscoda. “It’s really great to say, ‘Hey, listen, I grew up out here too. I also live in a place where nobody comes and asks what we need.’”

Gruber’s vintage truck has appeared in local parades and the dozens of videos he’s posted to his campaign’s social media.

He’s running as a Democrat, but he’s quick to say he identifies as independent. He’s a state park conservation warden and previously worked as a firefighter, paramedic and police officer before moving back to his hometown of Arena.

If elected, Gruber said he would focus on bringing more state funding back to communities by fixing the school funding formula and increasing shared revenue for local governments.

He points to school closures and the loss of police departments in his village and nearby communities as evidence that residents are struggling.

“The state funding hasn’t kept up with inflation,” Gruber said. “We’ve cut and cut and cut funding to local communities in order to give tax breaks to billionaires.”

Driving around the district, Gruber said he sees far fewer yard signs supporting Trump than he did two years ago. He believes it’s a visible sign of residents’ frustrations with Trump’s failure to bring down consumer costs, and the increase in gas prices since the president launched the war in Iran.

He thinks that will have an impact on his Assembly race.

“Right, wrong or indifferent, people look to the person knocking on their door, running for office, to help them solve those problems,” he said.

The incumbent in the race, Republican state Rep. Todd Novak of Dodgeville, said who residents are picking at the top of the ticket doesn’t define down-ballot races like his.

“I help Democrats and Republicans,” said Novak, who has represented the district since 2015. “Friends that I’ve helped don’t vote for me. I know that, and they’re still my friends. That’s a key at this level.”

Novak is no stranger to representing a swing district. He’s regularly a top target of Democrats, and he’s eked out close wins before.

Novak acknowledged that on paper, his district looks like it should be held by a Democrat. In 2024, Kamala Harris won nearly 52 percent of the vote in the district.

But so did Novak.

“I’m proudly a moderate,” Novak said. “I’m a dying breed at the Capitol. So that’s something I’m really proud of, and my constituents know that and they like that.”

Novak said he’s known for being a consensus builder in the Assembly. He’s also the first openly gay Republican elected to the state Legislature.

He generally stays out of the spotlight, sticking to the local press and occasionally posting pictures from the campaign trail on social media.

But Novak said people in his district know him, and have held on to their political independence despite an increasingly partisan landscape.

“If they know you and they like you, and you aren’t overtly partisan, they will vote for you,” he said.

Another candidate in the race, Nathan Tataje, is running for the American Solidarity Party, but his campaign has raised less than $700.

When asked about his record in office, Novak highlighted the funding he’s secured for road projects and local initiatives in his district. He also pointed to his support for making the state’s Office of School Safety a permanent program, a priority of state Attorney General Josh Kaul — a Democrat.

Novak said he hopes it will be enough to hold on to his seat, even if voters in the district are supporting Democrats higher up the ballot.

In Brown County: Republican Ben Franklin vs. Democrat Brandy Tollefson

Democrat Brandy Tollefson, left, and her Republican challenger state Rep. Ben Franklin. Both are vying for a seat in the 88th Assembly District. Source: Tollefson and Franklin campaigns

The reason candidates across the state are campaigning on what they’ll do to address rising costs is that voters are feeling the crunch.

That includes Layla Juntunen, a single mother of two and De Pere resident. She’s working two jobs just to make ends meet.

“It’s just me,” Juntunen said. “I don’t have a second income coming in from another party, so it’s just a lot more weight here.”

Juntunen spoke at an affordability roundtable in September. The Marquette Law School poll released that month found that 45 percent of Wisconsin voters cited inflation and the cost of living as their most important issue this election cycle.

Candidates running for the 88th Assembly District seat say they want to reduce household costs, with both identifying property tax relief as a priority.

The district includes the Brown County communities of De Pere, Allouez and Bellevue, as well as portions of Green Bay, Ledgeview and Rockland.

Republican state Rep. Ben Franklin is running for reelection against Democrat Brandy Tollefson. Both live in De Pere.

Franklin narrowly won the race for the district in 2024, taking just over 50 percent of the vote. Tollefson currently serves as treasurer of the De Pere school board.

In the 50/50 district, Franklin said voters don’t necessarily care about political parties — they care more about results. He said he worked to get 10 bipartisan bills signed into law by Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat.

“That takes a lot of work — it’s a little bit more than maybe I was initially anticipating,” Franklin said. “But we worked very hard with our legislative council, the Fiscal Bureau, Democrats and Republicans in both chambers of the Legislature (and) the governor’s office.”

Tollefson is challenging Franklin after serving three years on the De Pere school board. She said her time on the board gave her a firsthand look at the problems with school funding.

She said part of the reason she ran was that the last state budget included no increase in general state aid for schools, leaving districts to hike property taxes to cover their costs.

“It just felt so disingenuous that I heard Madison politicians saying that they were fighting for our schools, and then they were doing this in our budget,” Tollefson said. “It felt like the right place for me to step up at the state level and really go in and try and get the work done.”

Both candidates agree that the state needs to rework its school funding formula to better support districts and provide property tax savings to residents. But they’re divided over a partial veto from Evers two years ago.

The so-called “400-year veto” allowed districts to increase their per-pupil spending by $325 annually through the year 2425.

Tollefson said the veto gives school districts more long-term certainty in budgeting because per-pupil increases have been too inconsistent with Republicans running the Legislature. She said a lack of state aid is what forced districts to raise property taxes, not the veto itself.

Tollefson said the veto came after years of school districts turning to referendums to raise additional funding through property taxes.

“Referendum fatigue is happening, and we are hearing that over and over again that they can’t keep being asked to put more on their own property tax statements when Madison isn’t responding and actually fixing our schools,” Tollefson said.

Franklin said he understands the thought process behind the 400-year veto. But he said the $325 per-pupil increase across the roughly 800,000 students in Wisconsin’s K-12 education system translates to more than $250 million each year.

An increase that large, he said, is “going to affect your taxes in some way,” but he also said Wisconsin needs to rethink how it funds K-12 education.

“We all need to get in one room. We need to sit down. We got to hash this out,” he said. “We got to get it figured out because what we can’t continue to sustain is increased property taxes year after year.”

A handful of other districts could tip the balance

Marquette University Law School research fellow John Johnson considers the Donovan, Novak and Franklin seats to be true “toss-ups.” If Democrats win all three, he said, they’ve probably had a good night.

If they lose even one, he said it would complicate their path to a 50-seat majority. And in any scenario, they’ll need to win at least a couple more districts across the state.

Open Seats

There are two open seats Johnson thinks Democrats should be able to win “easily”: the 21st Assembly District in Oak Creek and the 53rd Assembly District in Neenah. These are districts Kamala Harris won in 2024, where popular incumbent Republicans retired.

• In the 21st, where state Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, decided not to run again, Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach faces Democrat Daniel Bukiewicz. Harris won the district by 4.2 percentage points in 2024.

• In the 53rd, where Rep. Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah, decided not to seek reelection, Republican David Daniels faces Democrat Becky Nichols. Harris won here by 4.4 percentages points.

Seats that lean Republican

Johnson views another bloc of seats as potentially winnable by Democrats — the 30th, 85th and 92nd Assembly Districts. Trump won all three in 2024, but he didn’t run away with them.

• In the 30th, located in the suburbs of the Twin Cities, state Rep. Shannon Zimmerman, R-River Falls, faces a challenge by Democrat Kevin Knoke. Trump won this district by 4.5 percentage points two years ago. Zimmerman won it by 8.5.
• In the 85th, which includes part of Wausau, state Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Weston, faces Democratic challenger John Kroll. Trump won the district by less than 1 percentage point two years ago. Snyder won it by 6.5.
• In the 92nd north of Eau Claire, state Rep. Clint Moses, R-Menomonie, faces Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson. Trump won the distinct by 7.1 percent two years ago. Moses won it by 6.6

Democrats on defense

Winning a majority also means Democrats need to defend seats they already have. Four seats — the 26th, 89th, 91st and 94th Assembly Districts — are potentially in play.

• In the 26th, state Rep. Joe Sheehan, D-Sheboygan, faces a challenge from Republican John Belanger. Harris won this district by 2.7 percentage points in 2024. Sheehan won it by 2.9.
• In the 89th, state Rep. Ryan Spaude, Green Bay, faces Republican challenger Bobby Lindsey. Harris won here by 2 percentage points in 2024. Spaude won that year by 2.8.
• In the 91st, state Rep. Jodi Emerson, D-Eau Claire, faces Republican Bruce Stabenow. Harris won this seat by 4.6 percent in 2024. Emerson won it by 3.2.
• And in the 94th near La Crosse, state Rep. Steve Doyle, D-Onalaska, whose district is seemingly always in play, faces a challenge from Republican Keith Purnell. Trump won Doyle’s seat by 2.2 percentage points in 2024. Doyle won by 0.6 percentage points.

Both parties are also vying to win control of the governor’s office and the state Senate, where Democrats would need to flip two seats to capture a majority.

This is the second election under the new, competitive legislative maps, but because only half of the Senate is up for election every two years, Johnson said this is the first time since 2010 that both parties have a plausible chance to win the full Legislature.

“The party that gets the most votes is going to win,” Johnson said. “It hasn’t been that way for a long time.”

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A handful of districts will decide which party controls the Wisconsin Assembly was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.