Will Fox Valley Voters Disappoint Democrats?

David Crowley and Tom Tiffany.

When it comes to electing governors, Wisconsin Democrats have had a Fox River Valley problem.

That could play a major role in whether Democrat David Crowley or Republican Tom Tiffany wins the Nov. 3 election for governor. Voters in the Fox River Valley — broadly defined as including Brown, Calumet, Fond du Lac, Manitowoc, Outagamie, Sheboygan and Winnebago counties — have cast more than 16% of statewide votes in the last five gubernatorial elections.

The region was once considered something of a swing district. But election records document how poorly Democratic candidates for governor have done in those Fox River Valley counties in the past 20 years.

– A Democratic candidate for governor, then-Attorney General Jim Doyle in 2006, was the last Democrat to win any of those seven counties. That year, Doyle won 51% of the votes in Outagamie and Winnebago counties. He won a second term as governor in 2006.

– In the seven counties, Republican candidates for governor won by margins that averaged 56% over the past five elections. Their winning margins in the region ranged from 60% in 2014, when incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker beat Democratic candidate Mary Burke, to 51% in 2006, when Republican candidate Mark Green got 51% of the vote against Doyle.

– In Brown County, the largest of the seven counties, Republican candidates for governor won by margins that ranged from 51% in 2006 to 59% in 2014. The five-election average margin for Republicans in Brown County was almost 54%.

Supporters of Tiffany, who has represented northwest Wisconsin in the U.S. House since 2020, are also encouraged by the latest sign that their string of Fox River Valley victories may continue on Nov. 3. A Marquette University Law School poll, conducted Sept. 16-23, gave Tiffany a 57% to 39% lead with likely voters over Crowley in the Green Bay/Appleton media market.

Republicans are also encouraged by an 11% drop in the Marquette poll — from 55% in August to 44% in September — among independents, who often decide statewide elections, who say they support Crowley.

But, in the two areas where overwhelming Democratic margins elected Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in 2018 and 2022, Crowley had significant leads in the Marquette survey. The Democrat had a 74% to 25% lead among likely City of Milwaukee voters and a 66% to 30% lead among Madison-area likely voters.

Tiffany had a narrow, margin-of-error lead — 50% to 46% — with likely voters in Milwaukee’s suburbs and 49% to 41% lead in the rest of the state.

Fox River Valley vote totals in the last two elections for president also show why President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Republicans at rallies nationally to “pretend that I’m on the ballot” on Nov. 3. In the 2020 and 2024 elections, Trump did not lose in any of those Fox River Valley counties. His victory margins ranged from 64% in Fond du Lac County in 2024 to 51% in Winnebago County in 2020.

An exchange last week showed how important Fox River Valley voters are to Republicans.

Weeks before the election, Trump said he will release $17.9 million in disaster aid to help Appleton and Menasha — two Fox River Valley communities — recover from storm damage.

In his social media post, Trump said he spoke to Tiffany, who has his “Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next Governor,” about releasing the aid.

Tiffany, whose northwest Wisconsin U.S. House district is far from the Fox River Valley, thanked Trump for releasing the funds.

But Evers, who is campaigning for Crowley, said in his own social media post that his office had heard nothing in response to his August request for federal aid. Trump and Tiffany “are continuing to play politics with emergency aid that’s meant to help communities recover in the wake of disasters,” Evers said.

Democrats hope Crowley’s campaign is helped on Nov. 3 by voters rejecting Republicans led by Trump, whose approval rating was 38% and disapproval rating 60% in Marquette’s September poll of likely voters.

Fox River Valley Democrats also hope their voters turn out on Nov. 3 to reject the policies of Republicans who have controlled the Legislature since 2011.

On their website, for example, the Democratic Party of Outagamie County profiles their party’s candidates ranging from governor to state Assembly and adds, “The Republicans on Outagamie County’s ballot have records and campaign positions that would hit two things close to home: your rights and your pocketbook.”

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.