Democrats Think Referendum Success Was A Preview of November Win

Vote here sign outside a Milwaukee polling place. Photo by Jeramey Jannene.

Wisconsin Democrats say the overwhelming defeat of two Republican-sponsored constitutional amendments by voters this month was a successful trial run of their campaigns for president and Democratic candidates on Nov. 5.

“Wisconsin voters defeated an attempt by MAGA politicians to bend our constitution,” state Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler said in a statement. “In November, Wisconsin Democrats will ensure the Republican politicians who pushed this power grab will be defeated as well.”

But Republicans and conservatives say that opponents misrepresented the changes and spent millions convincing voters to reject them.

“Bombarded with false assertions from big-spending liberals, many Wisconsin independents and conservatives were hoodwinked … into voting against the two constitutional amendments that together would have given legislators shared responsibility with the governor over big buckets of federal spending,” Mike Nichols, president of the Badger Institute, said in his analysis of the vote.

It was the first statewide referendum on a proposed constitutional amendment to lose since 1995.

The Aug. 13 defeat of the two Republican constitutional changes, which would have given legislators new controls over state spending, reversed what happened in April. Then, voters passed two other Republican-sponsored constitutional changes that banned third-party donations to help pay for elections and narrowed the definition of election workers.

The April changes were approved by a turnout of 1.16 million voters in a low-profile spring election.

The August changes were defeated by a turnout of 1.22 million voters in a midsummer partisan primary after Democrats and special-interest groups launched advertising and public relations campaigns asking voters to kill the changes. Each lost by statewide margins of about 57%.

One major change between April and August referendums was voter turnout in Dane County and the number of “no” votes they cast.

This month, 171,590 Dane County voters cast 334,981 total votes on the two referendum questions. That was an increase of 81,526 — or 32% — from the total votes on the two April constitutional changes.

Dane County officials estimated voter turnout at 45%; statewide voter turnout was about 26%, the highest in 60 years.

More important was the number of “no” votes on both amendments cast — 275,955 — in just Dane County. Dane County voters rejected the changes by a stunning margin of 82% to 18%; they cast 20% of all “no” votes statewide on the two referendums.

The number of votes in Milwaukee County on the amendments fell from 304,748 in April to 292,577 in August — a drop of 4%. Milwaukee County voters turned down the changes by a margin of 71% to 29%; they cast 14.8% of all “no” votes statewide on Aug. 13.

Voter turnout in Milwaukee and Dane counties on the referendums was about 25% of the statewide totals. That’s been the percentage in five recent statewide elections: the 2023 Supreme Court race, the 2022 re-elections of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, and the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

But even if votes from Milwaukee and Dane counties on the Aug. 13 referendums are subtracted, both amendments would have still lost statewide, Wikler noted.

“I think this will be a big jolt of enthusiasm, and I think it bodes well for the chance for Democrats to win up and down the ballot,” Wikler told Wisconsin Public Radio.

He said other statewide groups that urged “no” votes included Wisconsin Conservation Voters, Wisconsin Farmers Union and the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin.

Nichols also noted the statewide opposition to the two constitutional changes placed on the August primary ballot by Republican legislators.

“It wasn’t just liberals and progressives in favor of unrestrained and unexamined spending — or misspending — who voted ‘no’,” Nichols said. “A majority of voters in 21 counties that went for Republican Tim Michels in the last gubernatorial election voted ‘no’ as well.”

“No’ supporters spent millions and it worked,” Nichols added. “Proponents of a “yes” vote, including the Badger Institute, didn’t have anywhere near that sort of money.”

Another conservative group that advocated for the amendments was the Wisconsin Institute of Law and Liberty. Its president, Rick Esenberg, blamed the loss on “out-of-state, far-left special interests” who he said “flooded the airwaves with misleading ads to influence decision making in Wisconsin.”

Evers, however, called the defeat of the constitutional changes “a referendum on our administration’s work and the future for Wisconsin we’ve been working hard to build together.”

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.