New Marquette Poll Shows Harris, Trump In Dead Heat in Wisconsin
It's the first Marquette University Law School poll since Harris replaced Biden.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Despite a new candidate for president, the latest Marquette University Law School poll shows swing state Wisconsin in familiar territory, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a dead heat.
Among registered voters, Marquette’s latest poll shows Harris with 49 percent of the vote, compared to 50 percent for Trump. Among likely voters, the survey flips, showing Harris leading Trump, 50 to 49 percent.
It’s Marquette’s first survey since June, and in that month-and-a-half, the political world has changed.
Trump survived an attempted assassination and President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, endorsing Harris. Republicans held their national convention, with Trump nominating Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. Harris, who became the Democratic Party’s nominee via a virtual roll call, chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate on Monday.
Marquette’s latest poll surveyed 877 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent. It was in the field from July 24 to Aug. 1, so it did not measure voters’ attitudes since Walz was added to the Democratic ticket.
But it followed the other whirlwind of events, including the switch from Biden to Harris at the top of the ticket, which has given Democrats a boost in other polls. In Marquette’s June survey, Biden and Trump were tied. Harris picking up similar polling numbers barely two weeks into her run indicates that voters adjusted quickly to the change.
And if Biden had remained the candidate, the poll suggests that Trump would have pulled ahead, 47 to 42.
The results published Wednesday will be closely watched in Wisconsin, where four of the last six presidential races have been decided by less than a percentage point.
The poll numbers were also released one day after four independent candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., filed to get on the November ballot. If those are finalized, Wisconsinites could see up to nine presidential candidates on their ballot, including candidates from the Green, Libertarian and Constitution parties.
The poll surveyed voters on the top seven prospective candidates, including independents Kennedy and Cornel West, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, and the Constitution party’s Randall Terry.
In such a multi-candidate match-up, Harris leads with 45 percent of registered voters, and Trump receiving 43 percent. Kennedy would receive 8 percent, and Stein and Oliver about 1 percent. West and Terry polled below 0.5 percent.
Third-party and independent candidates in Wisconsin received 5.5 percent of the vote in 2016, and just 1.5 percent total in 2020. Both of those races were decided by less than a percentage point, so these candidates do stand a chance of making a significant impact on the major party candidates.
Latest Marquette poll shows Harris, Trump in dead heat in Wisconsin was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.
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