Polls Missed on Trump Voters, Franklin Says
MU Law School pollster says Trump voters distrust and didn’t respond to polls.
Franklin, who runs the Marquette University Law School poll, said Trump supporters just didn’t respond to the polls.
Franklin was interviewed by journalist Mike Gousha during a virtual Greater Milwaukee Committee meeting Monday. Gousha is also a distinguished fellow in law and public policy at Marquette University Law School.
The Marquette poll released the week before the election, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points among likely voters in Wisconsin with 48 percent of those surveyed said they support Biden, compared to 43 percent for Trump. The poll’s margin of error for likely voters was 4.4 percent.
Biden won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, or about 0.624 percentage points, out of nearly 3.3 million ballots counted.
The Associated Press called the presidential race for Biden on Saturday, when it said Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College.
The Marquette poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. Franklin has directed the poll since its inception in 2012 and is a professor of law and public policy at Marquette University Law School.
“I think the bottom line is, for the second election in a row, is polling did have substantial misses, but this time the misses were across the country, where in 2016, it was more focused in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania,” Franklin said.
In 2016, the Marquette poll was off by 7 points and projected then Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to win. Trump won Wisconsin that election.
“This time, we were in 3 to 4 points, and we projected the right winner,” Franklin said.
Listen to the WPR report here.
Charles Franklin: Polling Underestimated Trump Supporters was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.
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