It Doesn’t Take a Weatherman
The deluge has begun.
In case you haven’t noticed, Wisconsin’s primary is next Tuesday so our state is suddenly drawing attention from the candidates and the national media.
On some levels the race for the Democratic nomination is too close to call and nobody expects either candidate to deliver a decisive blow for at least for a month or so until Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania have had their say.
Those states, some say, are a firewall for Hillary Clinton and if she finishes strong she can still establish herself as the likely candidate prior to the convention in August.
The crowds he is turning out across the state are amazing. The ads he is running are compelling. The money he is raising and the endorsements he is gathering are impressive. The groundswell of support for the first term senator from Illinois is dramatic and authentic.
Clinton’s campaign is struggling to reinvent her as the underdog insurgent in this race. I like and respect Hillary but this is yet another sign that she is destined to finish second. Not only are the voters clamoring for change but, perhaps more significantly, they are seeking authenticity. Both candidates are incredibly bright, hardworking and accomplished but Clinton loses to Obama on the intangible of being in sync with the times.
On Tuesday, Obama drew 18,000 to the Kohl Center in Madison with hundreds more in the Pavilion next door watching on two giant video screens. I drove from Milwaukee with my daughter and one of her friends and we ended up in the overflow.
The two teenagers with me were impressed by Obama’s speech and were excited that we were able to squeeze into the main arena after he was finished so they could catch a glimpse of the politician. What better sign of his impact? He is truly the rock star candidate.
Obama continued his march across the state on Wednesday with appearances in Janesville, Waukesha and Racine. I made it to the Waukesha Expo Center to see what effect he’d have on a smaller crowd in a largely Republican community. He delivered with flying colors. The nearly 2000 in the audience were treated to a tour d’ force speech combining detailed policy specifics with inspirational oratory. If people arrived with an open mind, the chances are good that he closed the deal.
Former President Bill Clinton addressed a much smaller crowd this morning at Milwaukee’s Italian Community Center. I couldn’t stay away because I was curious to see what he would say and what impact he would have on his audience.
Only part of the ballroom was filled, maybe two hundred. Many of those gathered appeared to be devoted supporters of Hillary Clinton and he gave a fine speech highlighting her accomplishments and pointing out her prescriptions for the future.
He took only the mildest of potshots at Obama. Tellingly, he contrasted the “excitement of the new” with “empowerment of all.” A neat turn of the phrase, yes, but voters seem to want both and that is the appeal of Obama.
The key substantive difference between Obama and Clinton revolves around their healthcare reform proposals and this is where a lot of people’s eyes glaze over. Both insist they would provide universal coverage but Clinton is accusing Obama of falling short of that goal. Since you’ve read this far, I will try to explain the nuance.
Clinton’s proposal includes a requirement that everyone sign up for some form of health insurance. Obama’s proposal mandates coverage for all children but avoids that requirement for adults. He says affordable health care will be offered to everyone who wants it.
This is not an insignificant difference. Clinton insists that Obama’s plan would leave millions of Americans without coverage. Princeton University economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman agrees and adds that the Obama plan will nearly be as expensive.
Unsurprisingly, many of the Democrats who were in Congress at the time are supporting Obama including Congressman Jim Cooper of Tennessee. He struggled to craft a more moderate health care reform plan at the time and experienced the Clinton stonewall firsthand.
True believers in health care reform may argue that her plan is better. They may also wish Dennis Kucinich became the party nominee since he was the only one to support the single payer approach that would replace all private insurance with a government plan. But, as I read it, Obama not only favors comprehensive reform but also has crafted a plan he can defend through the November election and beyond.
As I left I was asked if I was willing to sign up as a volunteer for Hillary. I demurred. Was I at least planning to vote for her, I was asked. Again, I demurred. The woman was aghast. Had I been sent here by the other side, she asked. Oh my God, I thought, I’ve ruined her day.
Things do not look good for Hillary here in Wisconsin. But the Democrats seem to have a winner in Barack Obama. Bill Clinton was famously influenced by John Kennedy and the parallels between the young Massachusetts senator and Obama can not be lost on him. In time, the party will coalesce behind him and begin focusing on November.
