The McCain Surge

And then there were two.

Two Democrats and Two Republicans, that is. With John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani dropping out of the presidential campaign, both contests now get really interesting.

John McCain narrowly beat Mitt Romney in Florida’s Republican primary Tuesday but because the GOP winner gets all of the state’s delegates, McCain has now emerged as a solid favorite. Romney must be looking to next week’s Tsunami Tuesday to “Keep Hope Alive.” Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are still actively campaigning but their chances are slim to none, particularly in winner take all states.

On one level, Democrats should be salivating at having McCain as an opponent in November given the overwhelming unpopularity of the war. Not only has McCain been an outspoken supporter of the war but he was calling for a “surge” back when President George “The Decider” Bush was still endorsing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s “What, me worry?” approach.

But McCain appeals to many independents and Dems would be wise not to underestimate the former Navy pilot and Vietnam POW. It is difficult to imagine a candidate winning on a platform of “full-speed ahead” in Iraq. Yet if McCain is nominated the Republicans will try to exploit the contrast between the war veteran and either Democrat on the issue of maintaining America’s strength in the world.

In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that the Republicans will be far better at managing the war hero advantage in 2008 than the other side did in 2004.

One of the sweeter ironies of McCain’s sudden emergence as the Republican frontrunner is how disliked he is by the party’s conservative base. His positions on immigration and campaign finance have infuriated the party faithful and have driven notorious rabble-rousers including Rush Limbaugh and Tom DeLay to distraction.

Romney is now focusing on attacking the conservative credentials of McCain but his own moderate past makes this a difficult sell. So it appears that for the first time in anyone’s memory the Republicans will likely nominate someone not favored by the party’s elite. A strange year, indeed.

Another factor that makes McCain an odd choice is the sense that the nation is clamoring for change. While it’s hard to imagine anyone perceiving a 71-year-old white male Washington insider who
supports the Bush policy in Iraq as an agent of change, McCain may benefit from his reputation as a renegade.

His image as a “straight talker,” supported by his congenial relationship with the national press, also enhances his popularity with moderates and independents. Conventional wisdom suggests that the electorate is depending less on the mainstream media for information in our internet age but the truth is many of the most popular news web sites are often recycling stories from the dreaded MSM.

So far, McCain has also managed to control his legendary temper. I guess it shouldn’t surprise anyone that someone who survived five years in a Viet Cong prison could avoid responding to the much milder indignities of the campaign trail in anger. It sometimes seems that McCain uses the term “My Friend” as a mantra to help him maintain his composure during debates and other public appearances.

Of course, it will also be interesting to see which of the two remaining Democratic candidates emerge victorious. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both appear likely to survive Super Tuesday, making Wisconsin’s Feb. 19th primary suddenly quite important. The idea of an open convention, so farfetched as recently as a few weeks ago, now seems like a real possibility.

Hillary Clinton’s supporters probably thought she had an “ace-in-the-hole” at the convention given the large number of Super Delegates, officeholders and other party big shots who automatically get invited to the show, they felt she could count on. But the recent deluge of endorsements going Obama’s way has thrown everything up for grabs.

Lots of Democrats are apparently comfortable with either choice and are just hoping that the contest doesn’t get so divisive that the two end up shooting each other in the foot. But the Clinton camp has suddenly tightened up its message machine, most prominently by muzzling, or at least reining in, former President Bill Clinton, so the danger of the party self-destructing seems slim, for now anyway.

My advice is to pull up a chair and give the election a look see. With the writer’s strike, this is the best show in town. And when it comes to reality-based entertainment, it don’t get any better than this!