New AARP Wisconsin Poll: Voters 50-plus could tip the scales in 2024
Donald Trump leads over President Joe Biden among older voters by 7 percentage points
MADISON, WI – Today, AARP Wisconsin released a 2024 statewide election survey, showing candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Wisconsinites ages 50 and older. Eighty-five percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, compared to just 64% of voters ages 18-49.
Biden is ahead by 8-points among women overall and by 6-points among women ages 50 and older, while men of all ages favor Trump by 22-points.
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) holds the lead over Eric Hovde (R), 50% – 45%, in the U.S. Senate race among voters overall. Among voters 50 and older, Hovde has a narrow advantage over Sen. Baldwin, 50% – 47%.
The cohort of 50-64-year-olds favor Hovde by 7-points, while Baldwin has a 2-point lead among those ages 65 and older. Women strongly favor Baldwin, with leads of 18-points among women overall and 12-points among women 50 and older.
Any candidate that hopes to woo older voters ought to pay attention to the issues that matter most to this group. Eighty-three percent of voters ages 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are very important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (72%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (63%), and the cost of prescription drugs (62%). And the vast majority (84%) of older Wisconsin voters prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiations for lower drug prices.
“Wisconsin voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Martha Cranley, State Director, AARP Wisconsin. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”
Other key takeaways from the poll voters among older voters include:
- Nearly two-thirds (64%) say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.
- Immigration and border security (37%) is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by inflation and rising prices (29%), and threats to democracy (21%).
- 58 percent of these voters cite personal economic issues – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important. Notably, both Trump are Hovde are leading among older voters who prioritize these issues.
- Fifty-six percent of older voters say they are worried about their personal financial situation, compared to 65% of voters ages 18-49.
- Twenty-four percent of voters over 50 identify as family caregivers, with 27% of older women and 29% of GOP voters over 50 saying the same. Family caregivers make up 21% of Wisconsin voters overall.
- Swing voters over 50 make up 19% of older voters overall, and they are more likely to be Independents and moderates.
- Sixty-four percent of voters ages 50 and older support expanding Medicaid healthcare to Wisconsin residents earning under $20,000 annually.
AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Wisconsin. The firms interviewed 1,052 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 452 likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between June 28-July 2, 2024.
View the full survey results at aarp.org/WIpolling. For more information on how, when, and where to vote in Wisconsin, visit aarp.org/WIvotes.
NOTE: This press release was submitted to Urban Milwaukee and was not written by an Urban Milwaukee writer. While it is believed to be reliable, Urban Milwaukee does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Mentioned in This Press Release
Recent Press Releases by AARP Wisconsin
Interesting. When reading these poll numbers it’s difficult to see WI as a purple state. What is stunning to me is that WAY down at #3 on the list of most important issues is threats to democracy, at a sorry 21%. My father and my uncles, all of whom fought in WWII, would be rolling in their graves if they read this! There must be a whole lot of necks that are very red in this state that are willing to roll the dice on the orange-faced guy with the hair awning who is, as tmaloney6 very succinctly stated yesterday:
“a convicted sexual predator, massive business fraudster, proud p*ssy grabber, racist, bully, misogynist, serial liar, conspiracy theorist, and wannabe dictator who admires world’s worst dictators Putin, Xi, Kim Jung-Un, Orban”.
Let’s add “hater of the military and their families” to this list. Mr. Heel Spurs referred to them as losers and suckers.
I wonder at the accuracy of this poll. It seems unlikely that Kennedy should be polling as high as 9%, doesn’t it? The concern over immigration and border security — number one issue for 37% of voters— also seems outsized.
You know, polls continually drive the media conversation and gives pundits something to talk about. We want to believe–unless the polls don’t reflect our own beliefs–and we continue to be shocked (SHOCKED, I say!) when polls end up being woefully off base.
Meanwhile, the polling industry makes a b*ttload of money with what I believe is little accountability.
There is notably little real analysis on this data outside of the headline–Older Voters Could Tip the Balance in WI. And, I shake my head when I read something that says “64% [of older voters] say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income” but that only “56% percent of older voters say they are worried about their personal financial situation.” Fer cripes, If SS will be a major support of my income and it is at risk, I would also be very worried my personal financial situation. Cognitive dissonance, anyone? Maybe that’s just me…
I don’t know about the effectiveness of random sampling. I am not a statistician; it sounds beneficial. But, as a layperson, it sounds to me that it could go either way–either benefiting the sampling or not–*because* it is random and not selected based on an algorithm that accounts for key participant characteristics, experiences, etc. That, to me, sounds like “thoughtful sampling,” whereas random sampling sounds like punting. (It is also a much *easier* way to determine a sampling.)
My three cents.
Also, this falls completely within the AARP playbook.
I am a card-carrying AARPer, myself. They are always messaging how important “the olds” are. Absolutely the reason they commissioned the poll to begin with. It doesn’t matter what the results are, they can be parsed to deliver the message they want while also positioning AARP as a “thought leader.” (Ack, how 2010!)
And, they want us to buy insurance through them…