New Poll Finds Francesca Hong Far Ahead in Democratic Primary for Governor

Madison Rep. Francesca Hong speaks to her supporters as she hosts a rally for her gubernatorial campaign Sunday, June 14, 2026, in Madison, Wis. Angela Major/WPR

A new poll finds state Rep. Francesca Hong with a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor.

The poll released Tuesday by the nonprofit State Navigate asked nearly 1,100 Wisconsinites their preference in the Aug. 11 primary. The survey was in the field from July 23 through July 26 — after the chaotic withdrawal of Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and reentry into the race of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

It found Hong leading other Democrats by nearly 30 points.

“She’s gonna win this primary,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, founder and executive director of State Navigate in an interview with WPR. He pointed to her being strongly favored among voters in the survey, and a strong backup choice to other candidates.

When pressed to make a choice, 44 percent of Democrats polled said they would vote for Hong, compared to 15 percent for Crowley and 14 percent for former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. State Sen. Kelda Roys, former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and Rodriguez all had 4 percent support. Thirteen percent of voters said they did not know who they favored.

It’s the second poll in two weeks to name the democratic socialist as the leader in the primary. In a survey that did not include Crowley, the Marquette Law School Poll found Hong in the lead. But Marquette also found almost half of Democratic voters were still undecided about who they’d ultimately pick.

On Wednesday, Marquette will release another survey that reflects Crowley’s reentry.

Wisconsin’s five remaining Democratic candidates will spar at 7 p.m. Tuesday during a debate hosted by WISN 12 in Milwaukee  The debate will be streamed on the WISN website.

Hong, who represents Madison in the state Assembly, has largely defined the race, harnessing enthusiasm on the left. More moderate Democrats appeared to be coalescing around Rodriguez before she announced she had discovered serious financial mismanagement of her campaign funds, which later forced her to drop out.

State Navigate surveyors posed an open-ended question about what will influence their vote, if they head to the polls in November. State Navigate says the most frequent answers were economic issues, affordability, cost of living, data centers, healthcare and the electability of the candidate.

Nuttycombe says Hong scored high with many of the voters pollsters talked to.

“Data centers are a big thing in this primary, and Hong has been very smart to really make that the focal point of her campaign,” he said.

State Navigate’s new poll showed that Hong has strong support from young voters, especially those under age 29.

Nuttycombe says the State Navigate survey included Rodriguez because she will appear on the Democratic ballot, and researchers asked voters if they knew she had dropped out and who they would vote for instead.

“Some people still pick Rodriguez, but when that happens, Barnes goes up 1 percent Crowley goes up 1 percent, and Hong stays at 44 percent,” Nuttycombe said.

State Navigate said Crowley’s jump back into the race “appears to have scrambled the contest for second place rather than consolidating it, while Hong has surged past her opponents.”

For Crowley voters, 34 percent picked Barnes as their second choice, the survey found. Nuttycombe said this is likely an indicator Crowley “siphoned support from Barnes rather than Hong.”

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, R-Minocqua, has run largely on his own terms, despite token opposition by a little-funded candidate.

Tiffany, who represents the state’s conservative 7th Congressional District, also boasts the support of President Donald Trump.

Editor’s note: More details on all these candidates, and their stances on major issues, are available in WPR’s Partisan Primary Voter Guide. PBS Wisconsin also sat down to speak with many of the candidates running to fill Tiffany’s seat in Congress.

Ahead of Democratic debate, poll finds Francesca Hong up in primary for governor was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.