Marquette Poll Shows ‘Huge, Huge’ Problem for Republicans

The director of the Marquette University Law School Poll says the results of a recent national survey represent a “huge” problem for Republicans a year out from the midterms.

Marquette surveyed 1,052 adults nationwide from Nov. 5-12, including 903 registered voters and 602 likely voters. The survey was conducted entirely after the Nov. 4 elections that saw Democrats win resoundingly in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere.

Among all registered voters, 49 percent said they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today compared to 44 percent who said they’d vote for a Republican. Among likely voters, the gap was even greater, at 53-44 in favor of Democrats.

“It’s a large result,” said Marquette pollster Charles Franklin in an interview with PBS Wisconsin’s “Here & Now” on Nov. 21. “That’s a 9-point gap that’s very substantial.”

Independent voters still had negative views of both parties in Congress, but when asked who they would vote for, Franklin said they were “leaning pretty heavily Democratic.” Among registered voters, 38 percent said they would vote for a Democrat for Congress while 17 percent said they’d vote for a Republican.

Franklin said that sentiment was “enormously” due to President Donald Trump. Just 25 percent of independents nationally said they approved of the job Trump is doing compared to 75 percent who disapprove.

“That’s a huge, huge problem politically, and it’s politically a problem for the president, but also for Republicans going into the midterms,” Franklin said. “These are historically pretty abysmal numbers for any president with independents at this point.”

Franklin said the results, coupled with recent election results, could be relevant for Wisconsin elections next year. He said some of the Republicans who lost in Virginia were incumbents from districts Trump won by 6 points in 2024.

“Now, I’m not for a minute saying that we will see the same swing here that we saw in Virginia,” Franklin said. “But Virginia is certainly a test case to show that that a 4-, 5-, 6-point swing — even in an incumbent district held by a Republican — is at risk this year.”

In Wisconsin, where Republicans hold a 6-2 edge in the state’s congressional delegation, two U.S. House races could be close next year based on how the districts have performed in recent elections. In the 3rd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Prairie du Chien, won by less than 3 percentage points. In the 1st Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Janesville, won by about 10 points.

A swing of independent voters toward Democrats could also be relevant in elections for the state Senate and Assembly, as well as the race for governor. Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority in the state Senate where four swing districts may favor them next year. In the state Assembly, where all 99 districts will be up for election, Republicans currently hold a 54-45 seat majority.

The results of Marquette’s November national survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all registered voters and a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points for likely voters.

Marquette pollster: National survey results ‘huge’ problem for GOP was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.