Do Big Democratic Wins Last Week Signal a Wisconsin Midterm Wave?

With a year to go until the 2026 midterm elections, some are wondering if last week’s Democratic sweeps in states like Virginia and New Jersey could be a sign of things to come in Wisconsin.

It’s an open question, but political analysts note those types of results have preceded “wave” elections in past midterms.

Nov. 4 was a good day for Democrats. Their party dominated elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia and flipped 13 seats in Virginia’s state Legislature. There were other Democratic victories in places like New York City, California and Georgia.

University of Wisconsin-La Crosse Political Science Professor Anthony Chergosky told WPR he sees the results sparking discussions within the Democratic Party of Wisconsin as it plots the course for the race to succeed Gov. Tony Evers next year.

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger was elected governor by around 15 percentage points. In New Jersey, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill won her governor’s race by nearly the same margin. Chergosky described both candidates as moderates.

“To some Wisconsin Democrats, they might view the victories of Spanberger and Sherrill and take the lesson that they have to have a moderate candidate for governor in order to win over key swing voters who can make the difference in a close election,” Chergosky said.

He noted that other, more progressive Democrats in Wisconsin may be emboldened by the election of Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, as New York City’s next mayor. However, Chergosky said winning a statewide election in perennially purple Wisconsin is “way different than winning the race for mayor in New York City.”

The New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races have been bellwethers in midterms past

Results from governors races in New Jersey and Virginia have been seen as bellwethers in the past.

In 2009, it was Republicans who flipped governor’s seats in Virginia and New Jersey. During the 2010 midterms, Republicans dominated Democrats in a “red wave,” winning majorities in the U.S. House and Senate. In Wisconsin, the GOP flipped the state Assembly and Senate, Republican Scott Walker took back the governor’s office from Democrats, and Republican Ron Johnson was elected to his first term in the U.S. Senate.

In 2017, Democrats held the governor’s seat in Virginia and flipped New Jersey’s governor’s seat. During the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats ran the table on Republicans and picked up a net gain of 40 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. In Wisconsin that year, Evers defeated Walker, and Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin coasted to victory.

Chergosky said he thinks the “2018 parallel really applies” because Democrats were able to move past internal parity divides and unify to push back against President Donald Trump during his first term.

Wisconsin’s 2026 race for governor is well underway. U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann are vying for the GOP nomination. On the Democratic side, eight candidates have said they’re running, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Director Missy Hughes, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Madison state Sen. Kelda Roys and Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong.

Chergosky said although Spanberger and Sherrill were expected to win their elections, he was surprised to see how much they overperformed expectations. What’s more, he said, Democrats grew a one-seat majority in the Virginia House of Delegates to a 64-36 split.

“We know that there is a very competitive race for the majority control of the (Wisconsin) state Senate,” said Chergosky. “And I would have to imagine that the Wisconsin Democrats are feeling more positive about their chances of picking up seats in the state Senate as a result of what happened in Tuesday’s election.”

More broadly, he said, the sweeps last week were a strong dose of “good vibes” for the Democrats as a whole, after several polls this year have shown especially low support for the Democratic Party.

“Democrats have been struggling to find their footing since the debacle with Joe Biden, and I think there are some signs that the party is recovering a bit and is reversing its fortunes,” said Chergosky.

Wisconsin party officials see Tuesday’s election results differently

Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Devin Remiker said the results from Nov. 4 are reminiscent of how Democrats in Wisconsin felt earlier this year, when they handed liberal state Supreme Court Justice Susan Crawford a convincing victory over former Republican state Attorney General Brad Schimel. He said that race was a chance for Wisconsinites to push back against Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, who had both endorsed Schimel.

Remiker said last week’s Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia don’t change how he’s thinking about 2026, and the party will be approaching the races for governor, state Legislature and the state’s 1st and 3rd Congressional District races like they’re behind moving toward election day. Remiker said the results from the east coast do show that pocketbook issues are front and center in voters’ minds.

“I think that was part of the reason why we saw the success is that Democrats were laser-focused on talking about the issue that matters most to voters right now, which is cost of living and affordability,” said Remiker. “And that is in really stark contrast to what Republicans are focused on, which is basically whatever Donald Trump tells them to do.”

Remiker said Wisconsin Democrats are energized, and he’s telling candidates to be “aiming for the stars.” He said that means flipping the 1st and 3rd congressional district races, holding the governorship and ending Republicans’ control of the state Assembly and Senate.

“I think that is all on the table,” said Remiker. “It all feels not only realistic, but incredibly possible.”

Remiker also said Republicans have a “very serious problem” ahead of the midterms because they have to stand by Trump, whose approval rating sank to 41 percent this month according to a survey by Emerson College Polling.

Republican Party of Wisconsin Spokesperson Anika Rickard sees things differently. She said Virginia and New Jersey “have been blue states forever” and those states didn’t vote for Trump in 2024.

“I understand why Democrats are hooking on to Virginia and New Jersey, trying to energize their base, but I just don’t see them getting where they need to be with that,” said Rickard. “And I think going into 2026, Republicans have the upper hand. People are energized. People are excited to see what President Trump is doing, all the great things he’s been doing.”

Wisconsin Republicans, said Rickard, are in a great position ahead of the midterms. She said it’s Democrats who are struggling to “figure out what message is going to resonate with voters.” She said Tuesday’s elections show that affordability is on voters’ minds because of rising inflation during former Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration. Rickard said Trump has been working to change that, but it takes time for the economy to turn around.

“I mean, even with the tariffs, we’ve seen improvements in the cost of goods,” Rickard said. “We’ve seen improvements in jobs. I think recently, Wisconsin just announced the lowest record unemployment insurance rate for the month of September under President Trump. So it’s very clear that he’s delivering.”

This month, the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development announced a record high employment rate in the state.

While recent elections in Wisconsin have shown that some Trump supporters don’t turn out to vote when he’s not on the ballot, Rickard said the GOP is working to remind Wisconsinites of the importance of Republicans holding their House and Senate majorities and winning the state governor’s race.

“I’m not very concerned about getting that message across either,” Rickard said. “I think we have a great plan. We have great candidates on our side that are going to push that same message, and I think all of us coming together to do that is going to help us get over the edge and turn out those low propensity voters.”

Listen to the WPR report

Do big Democratic wins last week signal a Wisconsin midterm wave? was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.