Why Tony Evers Could Have Run Again

Gov. Tony Evers. Photo by Emily Hamer/Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism.

More than a dozen wannabe governors – in and out of public office, and working in Wisconsin and Washington – will spend the next three months deciding if they want to enter the first campaign for governor without an incumbent in 16 years.

The tribe of ambitious dreamers grew overnight, after last week’s decision by two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Evers that 50 years of public service – from classroom science teacher to school administrator to superintendent of public instruction to governor – is enough.

The low-key Evers, 73, wants to spend more time as a euchre and pickleball-playing family patriarch. He won his first term in 2018 with 49% of the vote and a second term in 2022 with 51%.

“I’m damn proud I’ve devoted my career and most of my life to working for you, Wisconsin,” he said in a statement.

“But the truth is that the only thing I love more than your governor is being a husband, a dad, and a grandpa—and it’s time for me to focus on the things I enjoy and love doing with my family.”

Most of the wannabe governors will say something like this: “I’m considering running for governor. I’m encouraged by the encouragement I’ve received from family members, friends and members of my party.”

Two Republicans are already running – Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and New Berlin business executive Bill Berrien. Two-term Republican Gov. Scott Walker floated a run on social media, but then said he won’t run.

Two Democrats, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, of Waukesha, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, promptly said they will run for governor. Democratic Sen. Kelda Roys, of Madison, said she is “seriously considering” a run.

Let’s let the sifting, winnowing and betting about who will run in the August primary and November 2026 general elections play out for now.

Instead, let’s consider four reasons why the current governor could have run again. To borrow a favorite Evers phrase, let’s “connect the dots” that could have led to a bid for a third term.

First, a liberal state Supreme Court has sided with Evers more often than not in the last two years. And that four-justice majority isn’t likely to change until at least 2028, since the terms of two conservative justices are up in the next two spring elections.

The wins started when the Court ordered new legislative districts to be drawn before the 2024 elections and, most recently, continued when the four-justice majority struck down a policy that gave a legislative committee power to stall and block rules developed by state agencies controlled by Evers appointees.

Second, an Evers re-election campaign could have been helped in November 2026 by the historical trend of voters punishing the party that controls the Presidency in mid-term elections.

If Wisconsin voters want to reject the policies, executive orders and tantrums of Republican Donald Trump and Republicans who control Congress, they may side with Democrats in that election. With no U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin next year, Evers’ name would have been at the top of their statewide ballots.

Independent voters – who decide most Wisconsin elections for national offices – opposed the actions of Republicans who control Congress by a margin of 66% to 34% in Marquette’s July poll. Six of Wisconsin’s eight members of the U.S. House are Republicans, and all six voted for the unpopular tax-and-spend package Congress passed one month ago.

Third, Evers remained overwhelmingly popular with his Democratic base – a base that won a U.S. Senate race in 2024, two Supreme County elections and elected more Democratic legislators last November. In the June Marquette poll, Democrats favored a third term bid by Evers by a margin of 83% to 15%.

“Evers has been the most consistently popular state politician in Wisconsin since his election in 2018,” Marquette pollster Charles Franklin said. “He has maintained an average approval rating above 50%, with disapproval averaging 41%. He is also better known and better liked than most other office holders in the state.”

But the governor’s overall approval rating with registered voters in the latest Marquette survey was 42%, with 55% – a majority – disapproving. And, among independent voters, only 37% favored a third Evers campaign and 50% disapproved. Still those numbers could have changed once they had to choose between Evers and a Republican opponent.

Fourth, a re-elected Evers may have had – for the first time – at least one house of the Legislature controlled by his fellow Democrats.

Republicans control the Senate by a 18-15 margin, but Democrats are already targeting three Republicans, which would give them control.

Two trivia questions may be relevant.

First, how many candidates ran in the last open primary – in September 2010 – for governor? Seven – two Democrats, three Republicans and two independents.

Second, how many Democrats ran in the last no-favorites primary – in August 2018 – for a chance to run against Walker in November of that year? Ten.

In short, we may be seeing one heck of a lot of candidates running for governor in the 2026 primary.

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com