Candidates Ignore State’s Looming ‘Senior Tsunami’

Caregiver with a senior woman in a nursing home. (Public Domain)

Candidates for president, U.S. Senate and other offices have spent months trading insults, claiming endorsements and pleading for cash and votes in tomorrow’s election. But nobody has talked about an important issue facing Capitol leaders.

The number of Wisconsin residents 75 and older will increase by 74% in less than a generation – from 407,070 in 2020 to 708,500 in 2040, a Forward Analytics report, “On the Brink,” predicted in September.

And, in August, the Governor’s Task Force on the Healthcare Workforce, warned that health-care systems are struggling to meet current demands, so major changes would have to be made to help them deal with the coming “senior tsunami.”

Both came within weeks of each other, but the stunning numbers in the Forward Analytics report got the most news coverage. The Health Care Task Force’s 10 recommendations, and 26 “associated action items,” were complex.

Taken together, they warn that Wisconsin is ill prepared to become one of the oldest states in the nation.

“The sheer magnitude of the number of Wisconsinites who will pass the age of 75 should concern state and local leaders, particularly when every region and sector in the state is experiencing workforce shortages,” Forward Analytics Deputy Director Kevin Dospoy said.

“Even if the public and private sectors were able to license enough beds in nursing homes and assisted living facilities to keep up with the aging population, there are not enough workers, specifically home health and personal care aides to provide needed care,” Dospoy noted, adding:

“Ultimately, addressing future needs means tackling the shrinking labor force and net migration issues today.”

Gov. Tony Evers created the Task Force on the Healthcare Workforce when he named 2024 the “year of the worker.” It was chaired by Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, a nurse, and cochaired by Kirsten Johnson, secretary of the Department of Health Services, and Amy Pechacek, secretary of the Department of Workforce Development.

In its report, the Task Force documented current health care challenges and didn’t address the additional demands of an aging population.

“Wisconsin’s healthcare industry continues to face significant challenges filling jobs, with historically low unemployment rates, high workforce participation rates, and a shrinking labor pool,” the Task Force concluded.

“The COVID-19 pandemic amplified Wisconsin’s existing healthcare workforce challenges by placing an unprecedented burden upon the state’s healthcare sector.”

Wisconsin’s seniors no longer able to stay in their homes are increasingly turning to assisted living facilities.

“The number of licensed nursing home beds declined from 43,551 in 2000 to 28,133 in 2020,” Forward Analytics reported. “At the same time, the number of beds in assisted living facilities rose from 67,248 in 2000 to 79,002 in 2020.”

As the population ages, Dospoy added, “Wisconsin will need an additional 9,000 registered nurses (RNs), certified nursing assistants (CNAs) and aides working in elder care settings by 2030.”

But the Department of Workforce Development expects the number of RNs, CNAs and aides to increase by 12,800 by 2030, meaning “The expected ‘need’ in the elder care industry is about 75% of the projected growth,” Dospoy notes. Meanwhile there will be a need to replace thousands of other health care professionals as they get older and retire. The state currently has some 232,000 health care professionals, including 61,000 registered nurses, a state report noted. The likelihood that three quarters of all new RNs and CNAs would choose to work at elderly care facilities seems slim, and even if they did, that would mean a shortage for hospitals and other health care facilities.

The Forward Analytics report also projects which urban counties will see the biggest increase in residents over 75 by 2040: Brown County, +103%; Dane, +114% and St. Croix, +152%.

Rock County will have between 60% and 70% more over-75 residents by 2040, the report forecast.

Although the Task Force on Healthcare Workforce didn’t specify how much should be spent on its recommendations, Evers could recommend using some of the state’s expected $3.4 billion surplus to fund them as part of his 2025-27 budget.

The Task Force’s recommendations include:

-Better pay and incentives for healthcare educators because “nurse faculty salaries are typically lower than salaries in patient care or other settings.”

-Funding for “wraparound services” like transportation and child care for healthcare students.

-Training care professionals and nurse aides through the WisCaregiver Careers program. “Without … continued funding, training costs will revert to employers and workers will no longer receive state-sponsored bonuses.”

-Higher reimbursements for workers providing in-home care.

-Making sure youths as young as middle-school students are aware of healthcare careers.

“We know that the senior population is going to explode,” Dospoy concluded. “We need to start planning now for how we are going to serve those in need.”

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com