Trump a Tough Issue for State GOP

Official portrait of President Donald J. Trump, Friday, October 6, 2017. Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead. Photo is in the Public Domain.

One month before the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee, state Republican Party Chairman Brian Schimming is advising members of his party who have a favorite candidate to also have a Plan B.

“Look, if Donald Trump is your favorite person, put up a sign, fly the flag, but have a second choice,” Schimming said in an interview. “If Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley or Tim Scott or whoever is your person, fly the flag, put up a sign, but be willing also to vote for Donald Trump because the country is at stake.”

Will Trump be the party’s nominee for president?

“I don’t think we know yet, He’ll always probably have — what — 35% or 40% of a base of people that are pretty loyal to him,” said Schimming, a veteran of Wisconsin Republican campaigns, one-time talk show host and a former cabinet secretary to former Republican Gov. Scott Walker.

But Schimming, who was elected party chairman in December, noted that history hasn’t always been kind to early leaders in presidential campaigns. “When you look at past elections statistically, the leader at this time is often not the nominee.”

The Republican National Committee has scheduled the first presidential debate for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, which will also host the party’s nominating convention July 15-18, 2024.

In Marquette University Law School’s last poll, conducted June 8-13 of 419 Republicans and those who lean Republican, 31% said Trump should be the party’s nominee for president, with  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis nearly tied at 30%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 6% and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott at 5%. That poll had a margin of error of 6.5%

But Trump, who announced his third White House bid in November and who has been charged with crimes by prosecutors in Florida and New York, has not said he will join the Aug. 23 debate in Milwaukee.

In a CNN interview, Walker said the nomination is Trump’s “to lose” and it would be a “mistake” for him to not join the Milwaukee debate. “The more he is out there, directly engaged with the other candidates, the better it is for him,” Walker said of Trump. Walker was on a 2015 debate stage with Trump and other candidates during the governor’s nine-week campaign for president.

“This guy dominates the stage; he’s a prizefighter,” Walker said of Trump. “Prizefighters belong in the ring, defending their title.”

Wisconsin Democrats have continued to focus on Trump’s lead in national and state polls to raise money. “The MAGA plan to steal the 2024 election goes straight through Wisconsin,” says a Democratic Party website, which also notes that Trump “can’t stop talking about Wisconsin. That’s not a coincidence. He can’t retake the White House if he doesn’t win Wisconsin.”

But Schimming cited a national poll that found that about 40% of Democrats, those who lean Democratic and independents, don’t want Biden to run again. That’s why Democrats use Trump as a “bogeyman,” Schimming said.

“I would rather have my issue — all sorts of potential candidates — than their issue of only four in 10 people…think Biden ought to run for re-election,” he added. “That’s an ‘enthusiasm’ problem. On my side, there is one thing I do not have — an enthusiasm problem.”

Schimming also said that Wisconsin Republicans “have got to do early voting” — something Democrats effectively used in presidential, gubernatorial and Supreme Court elections. Republicans like going to the polls, Schimming said. But, “If I have to drag my party into [early voting], I’m going to.”

Schimming’s math: “We get out-requested [on absentee ballots] two to one, and yet when our people get their early ballots, they return them at the same percentage as Democrats — about 90%.”

“I don’t need my folks to get them back in a percentage like [Democrats]…I need to get a percentage of [those requesting ballots], and I’m going to” win elections.

Schimming said he has traveled the state convincing Republicans to vote early, because when they do, party workers “don’t have to call them, don’t have to mail them, don’t have to message them.”

“What can I do with those resources? I can go get low-propensity voters to be high-propensity voters, and I can get the hundreds of thousands of people that would be part of our coalition otherwise statewide, but who never vote, to vote.”

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.