The Right Wing Answer to Gun Violence

Recently, the conservative MacIver Institute published a series of articles by the conservative talk show host Dan O’Donnell discussing gun shootings. One of these articles is entitled Debunking every major mass shooting myth. Here are O’Donnell’s seven myths:

1. There is a standard definition of “mass shooting”
2. Mass shootings happen all the time
3. Mass shootings are responsible for a high percentage of gun deaths
4. Most mass shootings involve assault rifles and high-capacity magazines
5. The US is the only country where mass shooting happen
6. Strict gun control measures can stop mass shootings
7. Media coverage of mass shootings doesn’t inspire more of them

First, O’Donnell is right that there are several definitions of mass shooting. Some rely solely on the number of deaths that result. Others include victims that survive, or eliminate certain kinds of events, such as murders as part of another crime. Calling them “active shooter events” the FBI excludes those related to drug or gang violence.

The next chart shows the number of active shooter incidents since the year 2000, according to FBI reports. Notice that while the number of incidents jumps about from year to year, a definite upward trend is shown. The dotted line is the exponential trend line, which has been rising.

The next graph, also based on FBI data, shows the number of people who were wounded and killed in active shooter incidents since 2000. The sharp spike in injuries is mainly due to the 2017 Las Vegas incident in which the shooter rented a hotel room overlooking a space where a country music festival was scheduled to be held, leading to 58 deaths and 887 injuries.

It is certainly true, as O’Donnell implies that based on pure numbers mass shooter events get more attention than their numbers would suggest. It is estimated that they account for about 4% or 5% of the total number of gun homicides in the United States over time.

But this seeming discrepancy is not surprising. The news business is far more attuned to large but relatively rare events than the smaller but more common events that may in the end add up to more deaths. Flying is much safer than driving a car and results in far fewer deaths. Yet, a plane crash leads to headlines; a car crash is likely to go unremarked.

By one definition, there have been 105 mass shootings starting with Columbine in 1999. A New York Times article compared these events to six of the laws that have been proposed to head off mass shootings or at least make them less destructive.

While O’Donnell is technically correct in saying that most mass shootings do not involve assault rifles or high-capacity magazines, the use of both is already significant and growing.

Starting with Columbine in 1999, 35 shootings included an assault rifle. According to the literature, the much higher speed of bullets from these weapons pack much more energy than does ordinary weapons. The result is the destruction of parts of the body that were never struck by the bullet itself.

Extended magazines first appeared in a mass shooting in 2009. Recently about half the mass shooters have chosen to use them, allowing more deaths and injuries.

To support his claim that mass shootings are a worldwide problem and not limited to United States, O’Donnell links to a site listing the 50 deadliest mass shootings in history. The top bullet point on this site says:

• Does the US lead the world in mass shootings? The worst incidents have been in South Asia, Europe, and Africa.

The website that O’Donnell links to lists the 51 mass shootings with the most casualties and their locations. The US had 19 of the mass shooting events. None of the other 20 nations had more than three of the 51 shootings.

Not surprisingly, O’Donnell does not quote the next bullet point that follows the one he quoted:

• This being said, the US has a gun homicide rate that is astoundingly over 25 times higher than in other countries with high incomes.

Red-flag laws aim to take guns from people in crisis to prevent shootings and suicides. The New York Times found that in 46% of shootings, an attacker had expressed interest in harming others and in 36%, at least one attacker was previously known to be suicidal.

Under the proposal to raise the age to 21 for gun purchases, four of the of the shooters would not have reached the required age. Another four avoided a background check by buying the gun to obtain through a private sale. Finally, ten of the shooters used a stolen gun which might have been more difficult if there had been a requirement for safe storage.

Some of these measures could help with the ongoing urban violence that, as O’Donnell points, contribute to most of America’s gun homicides. Notably relevant are red flag laws, secure storage requirements, and requiring background checks for private sales. Others, such as a ban of assault weapons, would probably have less impact in an environment where handguns, not assault rifles, are the weapons of choice.

As the list of the 51 largest mass shootings show, other countries have had mass shootings. But then they changed their gun laws, to place more restrictions on guns. Among these were Britain and Australia (each with three on the list of largest mass shootings), Canada and New Zealand (with two on the list), and Norway (with one). They did this despite a culture of gun ownership and hunting.

But O’Donnell ignores this, insisting that measures to bring down mass shootings don’t eliminate mass shootings. His solution is more police and tougher prosecutors.